Properties of Census Dual System Population Size Estimators

We study parametric and non‐parametric approaches for assessing the accuracy and coverage of a population census based on dual system surveys. The two parametric approaches being considered are post‐stratification and logistic regression, which have been or will be implemented for the US Census dual system surveys. We show that the parametric model‐based approaches are generally biased unless the model is correctly specified. We then study a local post‐stratification approach based on a non‐parametric kernel estimate of the Census enumeration functions. We illustrate that the non‐parametric approach avoids the risk of model mis‐specification and is consistent under relatively weak conditions. The performances of these estimators are evaluated numerically via simulation studies and an empirical analysis based on the 2000 US Census post‐enumeration survey data.     

论先秦思想家的环境保护思想

先秦思想家的思想中蕴含着丰富的环境保护思想,"天人合一""仁民爱物""知曰常明""取之有节""圣王之制"等环保观念,设置环境保护机构,制定比较完善的环境保护法律和法规的实践,都对今天的可持续发展具有十分重要的意义,值得我们借鉴。     

Do city–county mergers in China promote local economic development?

Municipal mergers have become a worldwide phenomenon in the past few decades, primarily advanced to exploit economies of scale. While most evaluations of municipal mergers have focused on the efficiency of local public goods provision, it is rare in the literature to explore how such mergers promote economic growth in a developing country context. This research investigates the economic consequences of a policy experiment of city–county mergers (che xian she qu) in China during the period 2000–2004. Using comprehensive datasets at city, county and firm levels, we present evidence that the merger significantly increases local economic development, and the magnitude of the effect depends on local endowments related to agglomeration forces. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications. We further verify that improved transport infrastructure and urban agglomeration economies after merger are potential contributors to the positive merger effects.     

Pro-market institutions and outward FDI of emerging market firms: An institutional arbitrage logic

We offer new theory and evidence regarding the effects of pro-market institutions on outward foreign direct investment (FDI) of emerging market firms (EMFs). Drawing on the logic of institutional arbitrage, we integrate the escapism and exploitation mechanisms of EMF internationalization into a unified theoretical context. We propose an inverted U-shaped relationship between host market-supporting institutions (MSI) and the investment scale of an EMF’s FDI project in the country, showing an escape-driven upward slope for low-to-medium MSI levels and an exploitation-driven downward slope for medium-to-high MSI levels. We supplement this main argument with two boundary conditions: the alleviating effect of home market liberalization (HML) and the strengthening effect of home government subsidies (HGS), demonstrating the coexistence and variation of pro- and anti- market institutions in an emerging market. Using information on 1,450 FDI projects conducted by 288 Chinese listed firms in 116 host countries, we obtain supportive evidence for the predicted relationships between the three institutional forces. This study enriches the literatures on institutional arbitrage and pro-market institutions with evidence from EMFs.     

承包商创收策略研究——基于一次、二次、三次经营视角

在我国建筑市场竞争激烈的情境下,业主普遍倾向于将风险交由承包商承担,这就使得承包商的被动地位越为明显.在此情况下,承包商的利润空间较低.为提升承包商利润,本文提出三次经营的模式,建立基于信任型合作关系的承包商创收体系.在项目各参与方共赢的理念下,实现承包商的创收和永续发展.     

投资者动机对众筹投资决策的影响

基于慈善理论,投资者动机分为内源动机、外源动机和提升声誉动机,这些动机既能影响众筹投资者的投资决策,也会相互影响。本文借助"众筹网"的投资数据,对投资者进行分类,考察投资者动机对众筹决策的影响。研究结果显示外源动机投资者、提升声誉动机投资者的投资金额更高;进一步探究内源动机与声誉动机的相互影响,结果显示二者负相关,内源动机投资者更关注内心满足,而对声誉需求较少。该研究可以辅助筹资者设置项目内容吸引不同动机投资者,并帮助众筹平台优化服务,从而提高项目融资效率和成功率。     

官员排名赛与环境政策执行——基于环境约束性指标绩效的实证研究

以从2006年开始实行的环境约束性指标为研究对象,结合晋升锦标赛和弱排名激励理论,提出了官员排名赛理论,认为约束性指标制度的建立为地方政府提供了环境绩效排名的平台,由此推动了地方政府环境政策执行力度。利用2006—2015年中国省际环境数据,采用动态面板数据估计方法,实证检验了各省环境绩效排名对其未来环境政策执行力度的影响。实证结果表明,环境绩效排名落后的省份在未来1~3年显著提高了节能和减排的政策执行力度。     

基于组织协同系统的创客组织发展稳定性实证分析

创客组织是实现组织协同创新的重要载体。创客位于组织协同系统的核心层，创客入驻创客组织的创新状态决定了协同创新发展状态；创客组织位于组织协同系统的中间层，起组织协调作用，其发展稳定性影响着整个系统；协同组织位于外部层，其参与程度决定了整个系统的组织协同和协同创新吸引能力。基于波动系数计量模型，对240家创客组织的12项评价指标进行分析，结果显示，以高校主导的创客组织衡量指标波动系数为标准，创客组织在整体上处于发展不稳定状态；分类别分析结果表明，高校和科研院所主导的创客组织发展稳定性明显优于企业和个人主导的创客组织。研究结果可以为完善创新政策、促进创客组织稳健发展提供参考。     

逆周期因子决定了人民币汇率走势吗*

2017年5月26日，中国外汇交易中心人民币兑美元中间价报价机制中引入逆周期因子。本文利用引入新因子以来外汇市场交易数据，通过新的人民币汇率中间价定价机制，测算了逆周期因子数值。在此基础上，本文通过构建VAR模型和EGARCH模型研究了逆周期因子对人民币汇率走势和人民币汇率波动性的影响。研究表明，引入逆周期因子降低了人民币汇率波动性，但对人民币汇率的走势没有显著影响。逆周期因子修正了投资者对汇率变动顺周期性的过度反应，有利于引导市场预期，完善人民币汇率宏观审慎管理。     

英国预算改革述评

20世纪90年以来,英国预算制度在总体控制、单一预算、资源会计与预算、绩效预算等方面进行了一系列的改革。通过对英国预算制度改革进程与结果的观察可以发现,英国的财政预算总体表现较为稳健,但其预算改革并未能实现对预算总体规模与个别预算支出的有效控制。