Macroeconomic factors of growth of Russian cities and town planning policy objectives

This paper was prepared for the 70th birthday of Oleg Sergeevich Pchelintsev, but he did not live to see it in print. For memorials of O.S. Pchelintsev, see www.demoscope.ru Nos 243–244 of April 17–30, 2006. The paper analyzes the channels and ways by which macroeconomic policy impacts the development of urban settlement and individual groups of cities. Its findings are used to validate new directions and measures of urban policy     

The investment policy of the railroad sector under reform

The feasibility of the railroad sector reaching its long-term development goals and developmental factors and limitations are analyzed against the background of structural changes in the sector. Investment policy, investment attraction mechanisms under limited financial resources, the principles of development of regional investment policies, and regional investment programs and projects are discussed. The sector’s internal development reserves during its investment policy are analyzed.     

The competitiveness of Russian industries: Current state and outlook

Based on its definition of industrial sector competitiveness the paper presents a “competitiveness chart” of branches of industry as per postcrisis status and points out key contributing factors in the success/failure of industry groups. Development opportunities and threats of branches of industry are analyzed, leading to a long-term industry “competitiveness chart.” A detailed SWOT analysis is made of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for a number of key industries.     

The myth of discount promotions

Operators need to fully understand the impact that discounting has on overall financial results. Studies indicate that lowering prices can cause profits to be reduced, even with increased sales. Not all discount promotions result in increased sales and the consequences are demonstrated through tables and graphs.Every promotion has a ‘relevant’ range such that the ‘right’ increase in covers/sales allows the operator to offset the increased costs and improve on the return that would have been realized without the discount promotion. The operator can determine the increase in sales or customer counts required from the promotion to realize an increase in gross profit. If the customer/sales increase is unrealistic, the discount terms can be adjusted accordingly.     

Properties of shrinkage estimators in linear regression when disturbances are not normal

This paper considers a class of recently developed biased estimators of regression coefficients and studies its sampling properties when the disturbances are not normally distributed. It has been found that the conditions of dominance of these estimators over the least squares estimator, under non-normality, are quite different than their well-known dominance conditions under normality. Some implications of the results are also discussed.     

From cause to effect and from effect to cause

The theory of probability employs a deductive method of thinking which traces effect from cause. Statistics uses an inductive method of thinking and tries to trace cause from effect. This noble goal can be successfully achieved if and only if a researcher deals with a homogeneous data set. A homogeneous data set is generated logically and then it is to be tested statistically. The homogeneity principle bridges the gap between probability theory and applied statistics and makes statistics as precise as the theory of probability. In this role statistics opens new horizons for estimating parameters when the central limit theorem is not applied.     

On the comparison of dollar-unit and stratified mean-per-unit estimators

Abstract. The paper discusses the findings reported by Smieliauskas (1986) and expands on them. It focuses on the dominance criterion for cost efficiency and on the usefulness of power curves for stratified mean-per-unit estimators. The analyses lead to the conclusions that: (1) while an audit plan which dominates another is associated with lower cost, a plan with lower cost does not necessarily dominate: (2) the distribution function of the t statistic becomes normal for sufficiently large samples, but the approach to normality is not necessarily uniform as sample size increases; (3) large sample size is required for nominal confidence levels to be a good approximation to the true confidence level, and the true confidence level can move temporarily farther from the nominal level as the sample size increases; and (4) the lack of reliability of ex ante power curves for the stratified mean-per-unit estimator makes it difficult to decide which power curve dominates. Résumé. Cet article discute des résultats publiés par Smielauskas (1986) et les extrapole. Il met l'accent sur le critère de dominance pour l'efficacité des coûts et sur l'efficacité des courbes de puissance pour les estimateurs de moyenne-par-unité stratifiée. Les analyses portent à conclure que: (1) même si un programme de vérification dominant par rapport à un autre est associé à un coût inférieur, un programme à coût inférieur n'est pas nécessairement dominant; (2) la fonction de distribution de la statistique t tend vers la normale pour des échantillons suffisamment grands, mais ce rapprochement vers la normalité n'est pas nécessairement uniforme à mesure que la taille de l‘échantillon devient plus grande; (3) un échantillon de grande taille est requis afin que les seuils de confiance “nominaux” constituent une bonne approximation du seuil de confiance “réel”, et le seuil de confiance “réel” peut s’éloigner temporairement du seuil de confiance “nominal” à mesure que s'accroît la taille de l‘échantillon; et (4) l'absence de fiabilité des courbes de puissance ex ante pour l'estimateur de moyenne-par-unité stratifiée rend ardue la sélection de la courbe de puissance dominante.