Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun

In this paper, we examine changes in the time series properties of three widely used housing market indicators (real house prices, price-to-income ratios, and price-to-rent ratios) for a large set of countries to detect episodes of explosive dynamics. Dating such episodes of exuberance in housing markets provides a timeline as well as empirical content to the narrative connecting housing exuberance to the global 2008 ?09 recession. For our empirical analysis, we employ two recursive univariate unit root tests recently developed by Phillips and Yu (International Economic Review 52(1):201–226, 2011) and Phillips et al. (2015). We also propose a novel extension of the test developed by Phillips et al. (2015) to a panel setting in order to exploit the large cross-sectional dimension of our international dataset. Statistically significant periods of exuberance are found in most countries. Moreover, we find strong evidence of the emergence of an unprecedented period of exuberance in the early 2000s that eventually collapsed around 2006 ?07, preceding the 2008 ?09 global recession. We examine whether macro and financial variables help to predict (in-sample) episodes of exuberance in housing markets. Long-term interest rates, credit growth and global economic conditions are found to be among the best predictors. We conclude that global factors (partly) explain the synchronization of exuberance episodes that we detect in the data in the 2000s.     

Perceptions of service delivery and happiness

An important task for students of development is to monitor progress in bringing basic services to all South Africans, one of the major objectives of the Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP). This article reports on a subjective indicator study which began in February 1995, nine months after the April 1994 elections. The study, commissioned by Information Update, a Human Sciences Research Council research publication, inquired into personal happiness and assessments of local public services including access to water, education, electricity, health care, roads and transport. Over 5 700 South Africans were polled during 1995 in three nationally representative sample surveys. Secondary data analysis showed that perceived improvements to local services were closely associated with increases in happiness among all sectors of the population, including rural dwellers and the poor. The article discusses the policy implications of this finding for future voting behaviour and efficient local government.     

Perspectives on Disability Disclosure: The Importance of Employer Practices and Workplace Climate

Disclosing a disability to a potential or current employer is a very personal decision, with potentially far-reaching consequences for both the employer and employee. Disability disclosure can assure that employees receive appropriate workplace accommodations, and can help employers respond more effectively to diversity and inclusion initiatives aimed at increasing the hiring and retention of individuals with disabilities. However, disclosure may also result in negative employment consequences for employees, such as lowered supervisor expectations, isolation from co-workers, and increased likelihood of termination. Given demographic trends related to disability in the labor force and recent initiatives to increase the employment of individuals with disabilities, it is increasingly important that employers create an environment that encourages disclosure and reduces the likelihood of negative consequences for employees and applicants who disclose their disabilities. This paper presents the findings of a survey of individuals with disabilities focused on identifying and better understanding the factors that influence the disclosure decision. Results highlight the barriers and facilitators that influence individuals’ decision to disclose and the important role that employers, managers, and workplace climate play in the decision. Implications for employer policy and practice are also discussed.     

When technological discontinuities and disruptive business models challenge dominant industry logics: Insights from the drugs industry

An industry's dominant logic is the general scheme of value creation and capture shared by its actors. In high technology fields, technological discontinuities are not enough to disrupt an industry's dominant logic. Identifying the factors that might trigger change in that logic can help companies develop strategies to enable them to capture greater value from their innovations by disrupting that logic. Based on analyzing the changes that biotechnologies and bioinformatics have brought to the drug industry, we identify and characterize three triggers of change that can create disruptive business models. We suggest that, in mature industries experiencing strong discontinuities and high technological uncertainty, entrants' business models initially tend to fit into the industry's established dominant logic and its value chains remain unchanged. But as new technologies evolve and uncertainty decreases, disruptive business models emerge, challenging dominant industry logics and reshaping established value chains.     

Is the emergence of new sovereign wealth funds a fashion phenomenon?

The paper deals with the important financial policy issue of the decision for a country to establish a sovereign wealth fund (SWF). Using a large-scale database, we analyze the economic, political and institutional factors that should be considered in such a decision. In particular, we test if the emergence of SWFs and more specifically of a specific type of SWFs can be explained by the following factors: the excess foreign exchange reserves due to natural resources rents or persistent current account surpluses; the volatility of commodity prices; the appreciation of the real exchange rate leading to the “Dutch Disease” effect and the governance of the country. The results suggest that countries with excess foreign exchange reserves, which are dependent on a commodity and which suffer from an appreciation of the real exchange rate are more likely to create a fund. We also find that commodity-based funds tend to be established in low democratic countries. Finally, our results suggest that the factors driving SWFs creation are different depending on the origin of the funding (commodity or non-commodity) and the macroeconomic objective(s) assigned to the fund. Our results may be of interest for policymakers debating whether or not it can be optimal for the country to establish a SWF.     

Monitoring quality of life in cities: The Durban case

South Africans were promised a better life for all in the run-up to the first democratic elections in 1994. Local governments throughout South Africa are seeking to improve service delivery to underdeveloped areas in line with the new policy. The seven councils of the Durban Metropolitan Area have a vision for the city, to be realised by the year 2015, that residents will live in acceptably serviced housing and will enjoy a generally high quality of life that can be sustained. To monitor performance towards achieving this vision, the Urban Strategy Department of the Durban Metropolitan Council initiated a project to guide budget allocations and measure the impact of local government actions on residents' perceptions of quality of life. This article reports on results from the pilot study for the project, which included a sample survey of 300 residents and in-depth interviews with a cross-section of 60 residents. The baseline study revealed vast differences in living conditions, access to services and life satisfaction across neighbourhoods. Satisfaction with housing and the neighbourhood, as indicated by disinclination to move, were major factors contributing to life satisfaction of Durban residents.     

Mentoring: a model for leadership development?

There appears to be a paucity of research on mentoring senior leaders (Hobson & Sharp, 2005) and yet a growing interest in the development of leadership through experience (Abra et al., 2003; McCauley et al., 1998). This paper therefore presents and evaluates a case study of a pilot mentoring scheme and programme for Directors of Finance (DoFs) in the UK National Health Service. The paper reviews DoFs’ leadership needs within the three broad categories of pragmatism, effectiveness and sustainability, and provides a case study detailing the pilot mentoring scheme and programme. Values and challenges posed by this initiative as a model for leadership development are considered, and lead to the identification of eight cross‐cutting tensions connected to mentoring senior leaders. This analysis provides lessons for the ongoing initiative and indicates key learning about managing mentoring and mentoring senior leaders that it is hoped will be of value beyond the scope of this study.