北京市汽车工业战略联盟博弈

本文分析了北京汽车工业内外战略联盟关系，给出了有中心企业的多方、多阶段组织博弈的数学描述，以及多方、多阶段战略联盟博弈模型。依据战略联盟博弈模型分析的结果对北汽控股公司内外战略联盟的建立提出若干建议。     

养老基金筹集模式的实证分析

当前的养老制度改革是关注的焦点。本文首先将从介绍现存的筹集模式入手,试图换个角度来思考在人口老龄化背景下的我国养老金基金制度,实证分析模式选择对于缴费率等的影响,并基于此,讨论未来改革的方向。     

上市公司利润泡沫的剖析

利润是企业经营成果的集中体现,也是衡量企业经营管理业绩的主要指标之一。随着财务报告信息在市场经济中地位的不断提升,部分上市公司为了寻求对自己有利的财务成果,不惜一切手法操纵利润,甚至采用欺诈手段不合法地调整企业的利润,形成了泡沫利润,损害了投资者的利益,影响了我国证券市场的正常发展。本文针对目前上市公司财务报表的利润浮夸现象,就企业泡沫利润的形成原因、手段进行分析,并对如何识别泡沫利润的手段提出了初浅的看法,最后提出了相应的防范措施。     

Do homeowners achieve more household wealth in the long run?

Despite the public’s faith in homeownership as a vehicle for wealth creation, there are surprisingly few empirical studies of the independent impact of homeownership and its duration on household wealth accumulation. This paper provides the first empirical evidence that homeownership, after controlling for other drivers of wealth accumulation, is positively and significantly associated with wealth accumulation over time. Using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, it examines the influence of housing tenure choices between 1989 and 2001 on household net wealth levels in 2001 after controlling for initial wealth in 1989, location, income, education, and other family and personal characteristics that might influence the rate of wealth accumulation. Importantly, the models used also control for the tendency of households to accumulate wealth between 1984 and 1989 (five years prior to the studied period). This approach is used to address the possibility that an unobserved variable—the propensity to save or accumulate wealth—may be associated with both the probability and duration of homeownership and the rate of wealth accumulation. All else equal, those who owned homes and owned for longer periods of time had significantly higher household net wealth by 2001. These results are compelling because house price appreciation over the period was near its long-run average while stock gains were above and real rent increases below their long-run averages. Hence, the findings are suggestive of a positive influence of ownership over long periods on net wealth, even during a period when alternative investments produced higher than normal returns and rents grew slowly. This is especially important because the overwhelmingly majority of households do not sell their homes shortly after buying them. In our sample, those who became owners typically owned for 7 years. Furthermore, most households that bought during a period of declining real home values in the early 1990s continued to own their homes for at least eight years and came out well ahead of those who did not own.     

整合产品服务系统——实现循环经济的新途径

整合产品服务系统(IPSS)是一种社会组织创新战略,通过将目前仅生产和销售有形产品的相互分离的工业生产与服务体系有机地整合,以比传统生产和消费模式更低的环境代价,有效满足顾客需求。作为对传统商业模式的革命性变革,整合产品服务系统是促进可持续发展和循环经济的有效手段和必由之路。本文讨论其产生的背景,给出其定义和理论框架,介绍其发展历程,以便为我国发展循环经济提供借鉴。     

开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线

本文采用广义矩方法估计开放经济下中国新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线，结合中国现实选择工具变量。结果表明，使用混合成本作为通货膨胀的驱动因素在统计和经济意义上具有显著性，影响我国通货膨胀主要是资本成本与进口中间品成本；厂商定价行为既有前瞻性又有后顾性，但前瞻性处于主导地位，且价格具有较强的灵活性。     

CEV模型的单位根检验研究

CEV模型（Constant Elasticity of Variance Model）作为常用的利率模型，在实证分析中得到了广泛运用，但是其单位根检验一直被忽略或者被默认可以使用迪基一富勒检验。本文首次运用Box—Cox变换的技巧，针对CEV模型的单位根检验问题，找到了合适的统计量并且证明其渐进分布存在，然后通过蒙特卡罗方法求出了该统计量的分布表。得到了在大样本的情形下可以沿用迪基一富勒检验，但在小样本的情形下与迪基一富勒检验有所偏差的结论。     

拓宽扶贫思路,构建和谐社会

改革开放以来,我国扶贫工作成绩显著.全国贫困人口已从30%降至4%,但目前无论相对贫困还是绝对贫困,情况仍然十分严重.绝对贫困方面,全国农村低于国家规定的贫困线(人均年收入667元人民币)的人口有2 600多万,其温饱问题还未完全解决;全国城镇低于低保线(人均月收入159元人民币)的人口有2 200多万,生活状况仍十分艰难.     

完善城市整体功能是旧城改造的方向

城市的更新、改造是社会发展的必然 ,如何通过现状调查、分析、研讨 ,找出城市建设的症结 ,使城市趋于完美是城市建设者的历史使命。但现实中 ,片面追求经济效益 ,发旧城改造之财 ,只能使城市变成“崭新的旧城” ,只有按城市发展的固有规律去完善城市的整体功能才是旧城改造的发展方向。     

建立我国多层次资本市场体系的若干关键问题

我国资本市场发展的目标模式是建立多层次资本市场体系。为了实现这一目标,要进一步规范和发展主板市场,坚持市场化的改革取向,积极稳妥地解决主板市场上的结构性非均衡;在搞好中小企业板的基础上分步骤推进创业板建设;完善股份代办市场,实施功能转型,使之转变为真正的三板市场。