Forecasting US consumer price index: does nonlinearity matter?

The objective of this article is to predict, both in sample and out of sample, the consumer price index (CPI) of the US economy based on monthly data covering the period of 1980:1–2013:12, using a variety of linear (random walk (RW), autoregressive (AR) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)) and nonlinear (artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP)) univariate models. Our results show that, while the SARIMA model is superior relative to other linear and nonlinear models, as it tends to produce smaller forecast errors; statistically, these forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for nonlinearity does not necessarily provide us with any statistical gains.     

The introduction of seasonal unit roots and cointegration to test index aggregation optimality: An application to a Spanish farm price index

In this paper we present a methodological proposal of the way integration and cointegration analysis can best be used to test if the level of aggregation of an index is adequate. Using this proposal, we enquire the extent to which a Spanish aggregate farm price index captures the behavior of its components. First version received: October 1994/final version received: September 1998     

The ancillary insolvency proceeding

The main legal acts on International Insolvency Law (the European Regulation, the UNCITRAL Model Act and the European Convention on Certain International Aspects of Bankruptcy) lay down several local proceedings with substantive effects as regards the debtor, the distribution of proceeds and the ranking of claims. These—full—proceedings are characterized by a high degree of unpredictability and prove to be inadequate for creditors. These are the reasons why, as an immediate solution, the existing insolvency rules should be reinterpreted according to a certain logic of the market. However, such revision would only partially and provisionally solve the inconveniences of the current model. The true and ‘unsolvable’ problem is that even though the full local proceeding is based on international assistance, it alters the substantive insolvency rules. Therefore, in future it would be necessary to create a truly ancillary proceeding. Such a proceeding would not have any substantive effect as regards the debtor, the creditors and third parties, nor would it require any kind of distribution of proceeds and ranking of claims. However, this proceeding would enable to provide procedural assistance to foreign courts and procedural protection to local creditors. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On dichotomous choice contingent valuation data analysis: Semiparametric methods and Genetic Programming

The aim of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we introduce a novel semiparametric technique called Genetic Programming to estimate and explain the willingness to pay to maintain environmental conditions of a specific natural park in Spain. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time in which Genetic Programming is employed in contingent valuation. Secondly, we investigate the existence of bias due to the functional rigidity of the traditional parametric techniques commonly employed in a contingent valuation problem. We applied standard parametric methods (logit and probit) and compared with results obtained using semiparametric methods (a proportional hazard model and a genetic program). The parametric and semiparametric methods give similar results in terms of the variables finally chosen in the model. Therefore, the results confirm the internal validity of our contingent valuation exercise.     

The Effect of Customer Orientation on Smaller Sized Service Firms and on the Market: A Multilevel Application Embracing Firms and Customers

The aim of the present work is to ascertain the importance of customer orientation as a business strategy within the smaller services sector. The adoption of customer orientation is measured from the firm's point of view, and its effect on financial performance is analyzed. Customer perception is analyzed, using two variables, perceived value and loyalty. The sample consists of 100 Spanish rural tourism enterprises and 572 customers. The findings reveal that customer orientation has a direct effect on perceived value, and perceived value has a direct effect on loyalty toward the firm. Furthermore, customer orientation contributes to the achievement of financial performance.     

Fiscal space on the eurozone periphery and the use of the (partially) balanced-budget multiplier: The case of Spain

This article adopts the “functional finance” approach to consider the utilization of expansive fiscal policies in the members of the European Monetary Union most affected by high unemployment. As they do not have their own monetary policy, fiscal deficits require the issuing of public debt without the support of the central bank. The authors consequently incorporate the notion of a (partially) balanced-budget expansion to achieve the desired stimulus in gross domestic product (GDP) with the least possible effect on public debt. Their proposal is only a sort of “imperfect” balanced-budget expansion: It is based on the idea that simultaneous increases in public revenue and expenditure can boost GDP, but without any pretension of keeping public deficit unchanged. Specifically, the authors use the case of Spain to show that a more expansive fiscal policy is desirable on economic grounds, and that only institutional constraints prevent it. They do it presenting two alternative scenarios for the coming years and analyzing their different impact on unemployment and fiscal sustainability. The first represents a firm commitment to budget consolidation, whereas the second is based on this “imperfect” application of the balanced budget multiplier. The main conclusion is that a more expansive fiscal policy is perfectly compatible with finance sustainability.     

Derivatives pricing with marked point processes using tick-by-tick data

I propose to model stock price tick-by-tick data via a non-explosive marked point process. The arrival of trades is driven by a counting process in which the waiting time between trades possesses a Mittag–Leffler survival function and price revisions have an infinitely divisible distribution. I show that the partial-integro-differential equation satisfied by the value of European-style derivatives contains a non-local operator in time-to-maturity known as the Caputo fractional derivative. Numerical examples are provided for a marked point process with conditionally Gaussian and with conditionally CGMY price innovations. Furthermore, the infinitesimal generator of the marked point process derived to price derivatives coincides with that of a Lévy process of either finite or infinite activity.     

Risk Management and Firm Value: Evidence from Weather Derivatives

This paper shows that active risk management policies lead to an increase in firm value. To identify the effect of hedging and to overcome endogeneity concerns, we exploit the introduction of weather derivatives as an exogenous shock to firms’ ability to hedge weather risks. This innovation disproportionately benefits weather‐sensitive firms, irrespective of their future investment opportunities. Using this natural experiment and data from energy firms, we find that derivatives lead to higher valuations, investments, and leverage. Overall, our results demonstrate that risk management has real consequences on firm outcomes.     

The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions during Crises

We assess the importance of supply‐side credit market frictions by studying the impact of bank recapitalization on firm growth in 50 countries during the recent crisis. Our identification strategy exploits the crisis as a shock to credit supply and combines an exogenous measure of firms’ dependence on external financing with policy interventions aimed at restoring bank capital. We find that the growth of financially dependent firms is disproportionately positively affected by bank recapitalization. This effect is quantitatively important and robust to controlling for other policies. These results provide new evidence of the influence of credit market frictions on economic activity.