House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles

Abstract:  This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values. Such a focus is warranted since housing constitutes a large fraction of most household portfolios, and its characteristics are such that, in contrast to what prevails in financial markets, arbitrage will be limited and hence correction toward 'true' value is likely to be a prolonged process. Using UK data and a time-varying present value approach, our results preclude the existence of an explosive rational bubble due to non-fundamental factors. We further find that intrinsic bubbles have an important role to play in determining actual house prices although price dynamics appear to impact, particularly in periods of strong deviation from fundamental value. Price dynamics are found to be driven by momentum behaviour.     

Economists' perceptions versus managers' decisions: an experiment in transaction-cost analysis

Are the perceptions of professional economists on transactioncosts consistent with make-or-buy decisions made within firms?The answer may have important implications for transaction costresearch. Data on firms' outsourcing during the new productdevelopment process are taken from a large-scale survey of UK,German and Irish manufacturing plants, and we test the consistencyof these outsourcing decisions with the predictions derivedfrom the transaction cost perceptions of a panel of economists.Little consistency is evident between actual outsourcing patternsand the predictions of the (Williamsonian) transactions costmodel derived from the panel of economists. There is, however,evidence of a systematic pattern to the differences, suggestingthat a competence or resource-based approach may be relevantto understanding firm outsourcing, and that firms are adoptinga strategic approach to managing their external relationships.     

Competence and trust guardians as key elements of building trust in east-west joint ventures in Russia

This paper summarises the author 's doctoral research on the development of interpersonal/interorganisational trust in relationships between expatriate and Russian staff working in east-west enterprises in Russia. There is strong evidence from a variety of researchers to suggest that in order for western businesses investing in Russia to succeed, the dif.cult process of building trust needs to be understood and managed since in the Russian business climate western standards and norms of ethical business have not yet been established. According to research.ndings, western investors doing business in Russia and the long-term, personal trust that characterises family and friend relationships more congenial and more productive than formal, arm's-length contacts and contracts. In such a context, it becomes important to identify what creates and destroys trust in the post-Soviet business environment. This paper describes the causal factors leading to trust or lack of trust in relationships within western-invested strategic alliances in Russia. The key relationship under consideration is the one between expatriate western staff and managers seconded to the venture on the one hand, and their local Russian staff, counterparts and superiors on the other.     

美国中产家庭破产潮

很难想象,在人们印象中富裕的美国却逐渐形成家庭破产的潮流,而这些家庭中的大部分却是被标榜为社会中坚力量的中产阶级.     

Entrepreneurial Characteristics,Strategic Choice and Small Business Performance

Notions of entrepreneurship are central to accepted explanations of small business performance. The majority of studies exploring the growth implications of different entrepreneurial characteristics tend, however, to be partial or lack any formal structural framework. This leads to uncertainty concerning the mechanisms by which different entrepreneurial characteristics influence firm performance and the size of any effect.This paper develops a structural model of the relationships between entrepreneurial characteristics, firms' strategic choices and performance. The determinants of firms' strategic choices are then subjected to extensive empirical analysis. The results suggest a marked difference between the determinants of strategic initiatives related to management and control and those related to products, markets or managerial systems. Firms' propensity to make management and control initiatives depends almost exclusively on the characteristics of the entrepreneur. Firms' propensity to undertake initiatives related to new products, markets or management systems depends partially on the background of the entrepreneur but also reflects the firm's strategic targets, its market position and the likely operating environment.