Forecasting commodity price indexes using macroeconomic and financial predictors

Using a long sample of commodity spot price indexes over the period 1947–2010, we examine the out-of-sample predictability of commodity prices by means of macroeconomic and financial variables. Commodity currencies are found to have some predictive power at short (monthly and quarterly) forecast horizons, while growth in industrial production and the investment–capital ratio have some predictive power at longer (yearly) horizons. Commodity price predictability is strongest when based on multivariate approaches that account for parameter estimation error. Commodity price predictability varies substantially across economic states, being strongest during economic recessions.     

Interest rate rules, inflation and the Taylor principle: an analytical exploration

Summary. The purpose of this article is to characterize optimal interest rate rules in the framework of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, and notably to scrutinize the “Taylor principle”, according to which the nominal interest rate should respond more than one for one to inflation. This model yields explicit solutions for the optimal rule. We find that the elasticity of response depends on numerous factors, such as the degree of price rigidity, the autocorrelation of the underlying shocks, or which measure of inflation is used. In general the optimal elasticity of the interest rate with respect to inflation needs not be greater than one.Received: 6 November 2003, Revised: 17 August 2004 JEL Classification Numbers: E5, E52, E58.J.-P. Bénassy: I wish to thank Daniel Laskar and an anonymous referee for their perceptive comments on earlier drafts of this paper. Of course all remaining deficiencies are mine.     

Incentives and disincentives for diversified agroforestry systems from different actors’ perspectives in Bolivia

Even though diversified agroforestry systems can provide sustainable livelihoods and a resilient production of different goods, adoption remains limited in Bolivia. We examine major obstacles to agroforestry adoption and possible incentives proposed by farmers and civil-society organizations, and relate them to governance and international mechanisms that might play a role in agroforestry adoption. Market access for produce from diversified agroforestry remains difficult, as does its processing and transport. Moreover, farmers have difficulties in achieving the quantities and homogenous quality demanded by markets in the major cities. But most importantly, farmers and civil-society organizations saw little government support, although ‘ecological production in harmony with Mother Earth’ is prescribed by law and the constitution. Agroforestry farmers needed support most urgently in the initial phase, when investment costs are high and returns low. They suggested affordable credits, subsidies for diversified farming systems, and insurance against fire. We identified important albeit small steps towards developing markets for agroforestry products, but government support – mostly in the form of diesel subsidies, materials, and infrastructure – mainly benefitted large-scale monocultures and cattle ranching. In response to this, interviewees opted for strengthening farmers’ organizations, for demanding support with the help of civil-society organizations, and for disseminating best practices.     

Organizing women for combat: The experience of the FARC in the Colombian war

The FARC, which used to be Colombia's main guerrilla force and is now in the midst of a peace process, was to a great extent a feminized group. This paper discusses why it recruited so many women, and why it recruited them as combatants. We suggest that only when the FARC adopted a highly hierarchical, self‐contained, and militaristic organizational blueprint did it get involved in the massive recruitment of women as combatants. We discuss the way in which organizational mechanisms and ideology interacted to produce such an outcome, and how this interaction marked both the organization and the trajectories of the women who joined it.     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

Determinants of dining satisfaction and post-dining behavioral intentions

The purpose of this research is to empirically investigate the determinants and consequences of dining satisfaction with restaurant services. A total of 338 undergraduate business students participated in this research. Results reveal that there exist three sources of customers’ satisfaction with restaurant services: positive emotions, perceived service quality and negative emotions. Positive emotions have more impact on customers’ satisfaction than negative emotions. In addition, emotions mediate the impact of perceived service quality on dining satisfaction. Finally, satisfaction has a significant impact on recommendation, customer loyalty and willingness to pay more.     

Is Oil Palm Expansion a Challenge to Agroecology? Smallholders Practising Industrial Farming in Mexico

Agroecology has become a powerful alternative paradigm for rural development. In contrast to conventional approaches, this paradigm shifts the emphasis from technology and markets to local knowledge, social justice and food sovereignty, to overcome rural poverty and environmental degradation. However, the spread of this approach faces several obstacles. This paper deals with one of these obstacles: the ‘preference’ of smallholders for industrial farming. We specifically analyse the widespread uptake up of oil palm by smallholders in Chiapas. Contrary to agro‐ecological assumptions, oil palm proved favourable to smallholders in Chiapas because of historical and contemporary state–peasant relations and the advantageous economic circumstances within the oil palm sector. Based on this research, we identify four challenges for agroecology: (i) the existence of contradictory interests within the peasantry as a result of social differentiation; (ii) the role of the state in making conventional development models relatively favourable to smallholders; (iii) the prevalence of modernization ideologies in many rural areas; and (iv) the need for this paradigm to acknowledge smallholders' agency also when engaged in industrial farming. These challenges need to be tackled for agroecology to offer viable alternatives in a context of agro‐industrialization.     

Christian Ethics and Spirituality in Leading Business Organizations: Editorial Introduction

Christian ethics applied to economics and business has a long tradition. This dates back at least to the thirteenth century, with noteworthy developments in the four following centuries and again in the last century. Christian faith and reason intertwine to bring about principles, criteria, and guidelines for action and a set of virtues with relevance for economic activity. Christian spirituality, with 2000 years of history, has been embedded in Christianity from its beginning, but the application to modern business activity is relatively recent. This article introduces a special issue which, we hope, will make its own small contribution to the developments of both Christian ethics and spirituality in the leading business organizations. After a short historical overview and a consideration of the current situation of Christian ethics and spirituality in business, we introduce the papers selected for this issue.     

Analysis of the Service Dominant Logic network,authors, and articles

The present study analyses research conducted in Service Dominant Logic (S-D logic), providing an overview of its intellectual structure. For that purpose, a structured approach was adopted through the implementation of bibliometric methods, using co-citation analysis combined with performance analysis and an integrative science mapping approach, which considered a timeline, a graph, and a distance-based perspective. This allowed the identification of the leading authors and of six clusters of articles based on bibliographic coupling, along with the most prominent research themes clustered in five subdomains of research based on co-occurrence of terms. The networks extracted show the associations between the main articles and concepts treated by the S-D logic community, unveiling the salient challenges and prospective expansion facing its future theoretical and practical context.