A new paradigm for forecasting security returns in a market regulated by price limits

Numerous futures markets in the US and many stock markets around the world set a “limit” price before each trading session, based on the settlement price at the end of the previous trading day. Price limits are boundaries set by market regulators to restrict large daily fluctuations in the price of securities. Once the return limit is triggered, traders cannot observe the equilibrium return that would have prevailed in the absence of such regulation. We develop an innovative approach for forecasting security returns (and prices) in a market regulated by price limits. Our forecasting model allows for multiple limit-hits. The model is robust, straightforward and easy for practitioners to use. A few numerical predictions are provided for hypothetical securities, and for seven traded futures contracts.     

Societal embedding and product creation management

Societal embedding of new products – that is, their integration in relevant industries and markets, their admissibility with regard to regulation and standards, and their acceptance by the public – is a challenge. A management approach is developed based on our case studies in the biotechnology sector and on recent innovation literature. Tools are presented to map internal and external alignments. Learning processes, in interaction with societal actors, overcome the dilemmas or at least make them manageable.     

Values as determinants of motivation: Tourism and other career choices

Neuman, Yoram, Abraham Pizam and Arie Reichel, Values as Determinants of Motivation: Tourism and Other Career Choices. Annals of Tourism Research 1980, VII (3): 428–442. This study examined the predictive validity of work values in explaining motivational patterns of three groups of career preparation differing in their occupational specificity: Tourism/Hospitality, Management, and Liberal Arts. It was found that the higher the occupational specificity of a career preparation the higher is the predictive validity of work values in explaining work motivations. As predicted, the best relationships between values and motivation was found in the maximally specified occupation, namely: tourism/hospitality students, followed by management students with the liberal arts students — the most flexible occupational group — having the lowest relationship between values and motivation. The implications of the findings for employee selection and motivation prediction in the tourism/hospitality industry are discussed.     

Interdependent preferences: an econometric analysis

The theoretical model of Gaertner (1974) and Pollak (1976) for the interdependence of preferences in the Linear Expenditure System is estimated for a cross-section of households. The interdependence of consumption of different households has implications for the stochastic structure of the model and for the identifiability of its parameters. Both aspects are dealt with. The empirical results indicate a significant role played by the interdependence of preferences. One of its implications is that predictions of the effects of changes in a household's exogenous variables differ according to whether the exogenous variable only changes for this household or for all households jointly. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation Periods and Asset Prices in a Market Experiment

We test whether the frequency of feedback information about the performance of an investment portfolio and the flexibility with which the investor can change the portfolio influence her risk attitude in markets. In line with the prediction of myopic loss aversion (Benartzi and Thaler (1995)), we find that more information and more flexibility result in less risk taking. Market prices of risky assets are significantly higher if feedback frequency and decision flexibility are reduced. This result supports the findings from individual decision making, and shows that market interactions do not eliminate such behavior or its consequences for prices.     

Does interdependency affect firm and industry profitability? an empirical test

Strategy researchers have argued that heterogeneity in firms' practices and profitability within and across industries may derive from industry‐level differences in the extent of interdependencies among firms' activities. Theoretical models have clarified how and why differences in the extent of the interdependencies faced by firms across industries may affect the distributions of firm profits, but the specific predictions from these models have not been empirically tested. In this paper, we present what we believe is the first large scale empirical analysis linking differences in the extent of interdependencies across industries to differences in the distribution of firm profits within and across those industries. We use survey data to measure interdependencies systematically across a wide number of industries, thus addressing the primary obstacle to incorporating interdependencies in larger scale empirical work, and find evidence consistent with the theoretical predictions: average profitability is highest in industries with moderate levels of interdependency; the dispersion of profits among firms is higher in industries with more extensive interdependencies; and industries with more extensive interdependencies have a more positively skewed performance distribution. We find that the effect of interdependencies on average industry profitability is similar in scale to the effect of patent protection and industry growth rates, placing interdependency squarely among the strategy field's central concepts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Debt Issue Costs and Issue Characteristics in the Market for U.S. Dollar Denominated International Bonds

This paper analyzes the issue costs and initial pricing of bonds in the international market. In particular, we investigate the determinants of three components of issue costs: underwriter fee, underwriter spread (the difference between the offering price and the guaranteed price to the issuer), and underpricing (the difference between the market price and the offering price). Total underwriter compensation increases with the bonds' credit risk and maturity, but it is insignificantly related to issue size. Interestingly, underwriters appear to price some issue characteristics directly (by adjusting the fee) and other characteristics indirectly (by setting the guaranteed price). The two compensation components (fee and spread) are negatively related to each other. We provide evidence that this trade-off is consistent with income tax considerations, as well as with two-tier pricing by underwriters. We find no evidence of underpricing.     

Between relaxation and excitement: activities and benefits gained in retirees' tourism

While most studies that focused on older adults' tourism behaviour have used quantitative methods, most studies that focused on benefits that older adults gain from tourism have used qualitative methods. Thus, the associations between seniors' tourism behaviour and its results, namely, the benefits gained, were never explored. This study aimed to examine these associations. The study was based on a national mail survey of 298 Israeli retirees, who travelled abroad at least once in the year prior to the survey. Results indicated that there are nine factors of destination activities and five factors of benefits gained, which are intricately interrelated. In addition, four differentiated sub‐segments were identified based on their destination activities, but the differences between them in terms of benefits gained were rather minor. These findings suggest a balance mechanism in older adults' tourism that leads to maximization of benefits in different activities and/or circumstances. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The existential necessity of midlife change

As life expectancy in the West increases and companies can no longer promise lifelong security, many businesspeople will need to make major changes during middle age, embarking on a second life and a second career. They must start by getting beyond two pervasive and opposing myths. The first is that midlife marks the onset of decline. Problems do arise during middle age--concerns about health and finances, for instance--but one's life force does not expire at 65, nor do possibilities vanish. In fact, by middle age, most executives have gained a freedom that only self-knowledge can impart, and they relish unprecedented opportunities for personal growth. Midlife transitions, however, must be rooted in realism, not driven by the second myth, which paints middle age as a time of magical transformation. Contrary to what self-help books and inspirational speakers proclaim, such transformations do not happen. A 50-year-old with little musical training, for instance, will not suddenly become a concert pianist. People who buy into this myth find that their inevitable disappointment can be debilitating. Paradoxically, the doctrine that aims to encourage change actually stifles it. To make successful transitions, executives must stay open to the possibilities their experience qualifies them for but remain realistic about what they can achieve. For companies, employees' midlife transitions represent both a challenge (senior managers seemingly on track to become CEO may instead leave) and an opportunity (other midlife executives, with different perspectives and experiences, may knock on the door). Organizations must help middle-aged executives through this difficult period, not just by offering a workshop or two but by providing ongoing coaching and opportunities for personal and professional development.