Linkages among welfare,food assistance programmes and labour supply: evidence from the survey of programme dynamics

At the centre of the debate on welfare reform is whether incentives-based systems help poor families move out of poverty into jobs. Recent data from the first Survey of Programme Dynamics longitudinal and the 1998 experimental data files allow evaluation of the interaction among the Food Stamp Programme (FSP), Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) programme and labour force participation under different programme design and economic conditions. A model that incorporates jointly determined programmes participation and work decisions is applied to a sample of working age, lower income and asset households. Participation in TANF increases the probability of FSP participation and decreases the probability of being in the work force; working decreases the probability of receiving food stamps. Work, TANF, and FSP participation are related, and TANF and FSP participation rates among poor households who are potentially eligible for TANF are sensitive to changes in programme parameters; as expected, labour force participation is affected by the general economic conditions.     

Natural Resources and Internal Conflict

We present a model of conflict in which each group decides to claim the country’s income and invest in arms or to accept a group neutral allocation of income and not invest in arms. Apart from the usual cooperative or conflictual societies, their strategic choice can result in hierarchically stratified societies in which one group is dominant. We show how the presence and exploitation of certain types of resources matters for the occurrence of conflict or social hierarchical stratification and for the possible effects of trust manipulation. In particular we find that, first, robust (encompassing point and lootable) resource rich economies tend to be conflictual, plantation economies hierarchically stratified and diversified economies cooperative. Second, foreign intervention, aimed at changing the balance of power in the case of conflict, is most effective in robust and diffuse resource rich economies. Third, trust manipulation (as a means to counter conflict) is most effective in subsistence and diffuse resource rich economies. Throughout the article, we cite ample case study and econometric evidence to support our model.     

Evaluating Agricultural Energy Policies Under Uncertainty: The Case of Electricity in South India

Farmers' attitude towards risk associated with the availability of energy inputs will influence their investment behavior and demand for energy inputs. In order to analyze policies that reduce the risk in energy availability, some modifications in methods are required. This study, using a mean-variance framework, demonstrates how cross-sectional data and time-series data on crop yields and prices can be used to analyze agricultural energy policies under uncertainty in a developing country context. It is argued that the farmers risk attitudes, their crop allocation behavior, changes in the demand for energy inputs and the stochastic relationship between various forms of energy inputs can be explained by the various energy constraints faced by them. Furthermore, using the same methods the impact of policies which affect these constraints, can be analyzed.     

Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovation, nonparametric Bayesian methods are used to flexibly model the skewness and kurtosis of the distribution while the dynamics of volatility continue to be modeled with a parametric structure. Our semiparametric Bayesian approach provides a full characterization of parametric and distributional uncertainty. A Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling approach to estimation is presented with theoretical and computational issues for simulation from the posterior predictive distributions. An empirical example compares the new model to standard parametric stochastic volatility models.     

Customer segmentation using unobserved heterogeneity in the perceived-value–loyalty–intentions link

Multiple facets of perceived value perceptions drive loyalty intentions. However, this value–loyalty link is not uniform for all customers. In fact, the present study identifies three different segments that are internally consistent and stable across different service industries, using two data sets: the wireless telecommunication industry (sample size 1122) and the financial services industry (sample size 982). Comparing the results of a single-class solution with finite mixture results confirms the existence of unobserved customer segments. The three established segments are “rationalists”, “functionalists” and “value maximizers”. These results point the way for value-based segmentation in loyalty initiatives and reflect the importance of a multidimensional conceptualization of perceived value, comprising cognitive and affective components. The present results substantiate the fact that assuming a homogeneous value–loyalty link provides a misleading view of the market. The paper derives implications for marketing research and practice in terms of segmentation, positioning, loyalty programs and strategic alliances.