Can neoclassical economics become social economics?

This essay has both a general and a specific purpose. Its general purpose is to pose the question: Can neoclassical economics be social economics? Its answer to this general question is: Yes, but only if it abandons its methodological soul; that is, by abandoning methodological individualism, positivism, and ahistoricism, and expressly and systematically adopting a methodological perspective which is holistic, normative, and historical. Its specific purpose is to identify and examine the major elements in the economics of one leading figure in the historical development of neoclassical economics who self-consciously attempted to combine, to paraphrase Schumpeter, a neoclassical head with a social economics heart: Alfred Marshall.     

Credit Constraints in Manufacturing Enterprises in Africa

We investigate the question of whether firms in Africa's manufacturingsector are credit constrained. The fact that few firms obtaincredit is not sufficient to prove constraints, since certainfirms may not have a demand for credit while others may be refusedcredit as part of profit maximising behaviour by banks. To investigatethis question, we use direct evidence on whether firms had ademand of credit and whether their demand was satisfied in theformal credit market, based on panel data on firms in the manufacturingsector from six African countries. Of those firms with a demandfor credit, only a quarter obtained a formal sector loan. Ouranalysis suggests that while banks allocate credit on the basisof expected profits, micro or small firms are much less likelyto get a loan than large firms. We also find that outstandingdebt is positively related with obtaining further lending. Therole of outstanding debt is likely to be a reflection of inefficiencyin credit markets, while the fact that size matters is consistentwith a bias as well, although we cannot totally exclude thatthey reflect transactions costs on the part of banks. We presentan analysis showing how much more profitable small firms mustbe to obtain a loan than large firms.     

Versicherbarkeit von Terrorismusrisiken

After the terrorist attack of September 11 the ongoing discussion about terrorism in the insurance industry focuses especially on the question to what extent terrorism risk is insurable at all. In this context the subsequent analysis of insurability draws the conclusion that from a theory perspective the statement — ?terrorism is not insurable“ — cannot be sustained. Simultaneously this thesis is supported both by insurance practice and also by a comparison of other extreme risks which have a similar risk exposure like the terrorism risk and which equally violate the established limits of insurability.     

Monetary Policy Cooperation May Not Be Counterproductive

This paper qualifies Rogoff's famous (1985) result that international monetary policy cooperation is counterproductive. In a model similar to his, it is shown that if wage-setters are non-atomistic and inflation averse — as policymakers are — cooperation leads to higher employment and possibly lower inflation.     

Consistency and identifiability

The paper explores by elementary methods the relation between the concepts of consistency and identifiability. It is shown quite simply that consistency implies identifiability but that the converse is not necessarily true.     

A BAYESIAN AUDITING MODEL

A Bayesian procedure is demonstrated that binds together multiple audit tests in a multiple-stage decision analysis. The analysis uses information provided by one test in the design of subsequent tests even when subsequent tests are directed at a different set of system characteristics. The analysis is applied to compliance and substantive tests undertaken to ascertain the fairness of a particular account balance. Although the analysis is not operational as presented, it provides a logical framework that clarifies the complex conceptual structure of the problem and enables the identification of impediments to its implementation.