THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF USING REALIZED VOLATILITY IN FORECASTING FUTURE IMPLIED VOLATILITY

We examine the economic benefits of using realized volatility to forecast future implied volatility for pricing, trading, and hedging in the S&P 500 index options market. We propose an encompassing regression approach to forecast future implied volatility, and hence future option prices, by combining historical realized volatility and current implied volatility. Although the use of realized volatility results in superior performance in the encompassing regressions and out-of-sample option pricing tests, we do not find any significant economic gains in option trading and hedging strategies in the presence of transaction costs.     

Consulting revenue sharing,auditor effort and independence,and the regulation of auditor compensation

The joint provision of audit and non-audit services by audit firms to their audit clients has posed a threat to auditor independence. To mitigate the independence problem, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a regulation (SEC, 2003) that prohibits audit partners from receiving compensation for the sale of non-audit services to their audit clients. This study examines the effects of this regulatory change on the effort and reporting decisions of audit partners. We show that partners in an audit firm strategically change the firm’s liability-sharing rule. As a consequence, the regulation restores truthful reporting but has an undesirable negative effect on audit effort. The effect of the regulation on the welfare of the economy (defined as the total payoff to both audit firms and their clients) hinges on the tradeoff between the benefit of the regulation, which is derived from the inducement of truthful reporting, and the cost of the regulation, which results from less diligent audit work. We show that the regulation is more likely to increase the welfare in a strong legal regime (where the legal liability cost of auditor litigation is high) than in a weak legal regime.     

下一代银行IT架构

在全球性金融危机的笼罩下,IT开支被视为提升效率的重要手段,虽然总IT开支将减少,但IT有能力降低其他领域的成本。征并购和风险管理等领域将会推动短期IT开支的增长。当前用于GRC（监管、风险管理和法规遵从）的IT开支将继续增长。虽然销售情况不容乐观,但对于提高工作效率的需求,必将推动网点IT开支的增长。     

Schemes of arrangement as a corporate rescue mechanism: The Singapore experience

This paper reviews the use of schemes of arrangement (SOA) in Singapore as a corporate rescue mechanism, and argues that a number of features have contributed to its emergence as a de facto debtor‐in‐possession regime. It also offers some suggestions on how this organic process can be further enhanced without unduly prejudicing the interests of stakeholders. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

BAYESIAN STATE SPACE MODELS IN MACROECONOMETRICS

State space models play an important role in macroeconometric analysis and the Bayesian approach has been shown to have many advantages. This paper outlines recent developments in state space modelling applied to macroeconomics using Bayesian methods. We outline the directions of recent research, specifically the problems being addressed and the solutions proposed. After presenting a general form for the linear Gaussian model, we discuss the interpretations and virtues of alternative estimation routines and their outputs. This discussion includes the Kalman filter and smoother, and precision-based algorithms. As the advantages of using large models have become better understood, a focus has developed on dimension reduction and computational advances to cope with high-dimensional parameter spaces. We give an overview of a number of recent advances in these directions. Many models suggested by economic theory are either non-linear or non-Gaussian, or both. We discuss work on the particle filtering approach to such models as well as other techniques that use various approximations – to either the time state and measurement equations or to the full posterior for the states – to obtain draws.