中国对外贸易与城镇失业关系的实证分析

本文利用1978～2005年的年度数据,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和多变量Granger因果关系检验方法,检验了我国出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间的关系。实证分析结果表明,出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在两个方向的Granger因果关系:进口增长是出口增长的原因;进口增长是城镇失业增加的原因,我国在制订贸易政策与就业政策时须注意三者的协调,以促进经济的增长。     

城市危机管理的模式转换与机制创新

我国城市危机管理形势严峻。城市危机管理是一项复杂的系统工程,应当在充分研究城市公共危机表现形式和基本特点的基础上,积极探讨城市危机管理模式的转换,从法律体系、中枢指挥系统、信息管理系统、预警系统、社会联动机制等方面进行机制创新。     

新形势下大学生思想政治工作进公寓的探索与实践——以成都理工大学材料与化学化工学院为例

随着高校后勤社会化改革,学生公寓已经成为学生学习、生活、娱乐的重要场所。为此,不断探索学生工作进公寓的新模式、新方法。已经成为高校思想政治工作者研究的重要内容。我们结合学院学生工作进公寓的具体实际,对现有的工作方法进行提炼,开创性地提出了“五位一体”的工作模式和“全域覆盖”的工作理念,从而不断丰富思想政治工作的内容,深化思想政治工作的内涵,提高思想政治工作的主动性和针对性。     

Dominant markets,staggered openings,and price discovery

This study examines information incorporation and price discovery in closely related markets that witness staggered openings. A theoretical model is presented. In this framework, one market, termed dominant, is the venue where most of the price discovery occurs, and the other is termed secondary. The model predicts heightened volatility and order flow in each market when it opens first compared with when it opens second. The effects are predicted to be more pronounced in the dominant market, and is linked to the process of information incorporation. Tests conducted using futures on crude oil (dominant) and gasoline (secondary), two related markets that witness staggered openings, reveal findings consistent with the model's predictions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

A new look at the forward premium “puzzle”

We decompose the spot and forward rates into (permanent) nonlinear trend components and (transitory) stationary components. We examine the unbiasedness of the permanent (transitory) component of the forward rate in predicting the permanent (transitory) component of its corresponding future spot rate. The transitory component of the future spot rate under reacts to the transitory component of the forward rate. However, the permanent component of the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the permanent component of the future spot rate. A robust nonlinear cotrending relation is also found between the forward and future spot rates and the hypothesis of the forward‐rate unbiasedness is sustained in the long run. These results suggest that the forward rate better explains the long‐term behavior of the future spot rate. Simulation analysis shows that if the transitory component of the forward rate fully predicts the transitory component of the future spot rate, the forward premium puzzle disappears. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:599–628, 2011     

区域植被覆盖度和水土流失量的时空变异研究  ———以江苏省为例

选取1995、2000、2008年为时间变化单元,以江苏省从北到南的20县市区域为空间变化单元,建立植被覆盖度、水土流失量模型,定量分析江苏省植被覆盖度和水土流失量的时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)江苏省的区域植被覆盖度时间变异较大,随时间的推移总体呈上升的趋势,其中新沂的植被覆盖度最高,扬中的植被覆盖度变化最大。(2)20个县市区域的水土流失量随时间的推移总体上有所增加,而如皋、通州、海门、东台、扬中、泰兴和兴化等区域的土流流失状况有所改善。     

The Past Decade Saw Changing Role of China in the WTO

China joined the WTO to become its 143rd member state on November 10, 2001 after eight years of negotiations. A seminar titled the Future of China and WTO was held in Beijing on the tenth anniversary o...     

The relevance of irrelevance in brand communication

Brand managers strive to achieve an outstanding position in the psyche of the user by differentiating the product and service. In order to do so, brands are now often promoted by communications that focus on a trivial attribute difference. The current study tests both how the use of such an irrelevant attribute affects the perceptions of the consumer and how they rate the brand when the irrelevance of the attribute is previously revealed. The results of a controlled experiment (n = 894) show that the use of irrelevant attributes generally has a positive effect on buying behavior and that this effect is obtained even when the actual irrelevance is previously proven to the consumer. Further, the results are consistent across a variety of outcome variables, including attention, perceived uniqueness, price fairness, attitude toward the brand, and intention to buy the brand. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The effect of consumer emotional disclosure on fairness perceptions

One way consumers cope with an unfair consumption experience is to express how they felt about it. Understandably, these disclosures are often rich with emotion. Does emotional disclosure in this context influence consumers' perceptions of fairness? Drawing hypotheses from the emotional disclosure literature, this research reveals that writing about emotions improves consumer fairness perceptions and satisfaction. However, the benefit of emotional disclosure disappears if the disclosure is solicited by the company perceived to be responsible for the unfairness and they do not offer redress. The findings lead to the recommendation that companies provide and facilitate opportunities for consumers to disclose to third parties the emotions arising from consumption experiences perceived as unfair. Implications for managing customer feedback, complaints, and negative word‐of‐mouth are discussed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.