Some Preliminary Findings on Hong Kong Business Cycles

This paper presents some preliminary quantitative findings on the characteristics of business cycles in Hong Kong. The recently developed "approximate bandpass filter" is used to extract the fluctuations at business cycle frequencies (8 to 32 quarters) of macroeconomic time series. Based on the filtered time series, the paper identifies the cyclical turning points, describes the pattern of output fluctuations, and examines the co‐movement of various macroeconomic variables.     

Does Human Capital Protect Workers against Exogenous Shocks? Evidence from Panel Data on South Africa during the 2008‐2009 Crisis

The financial and economic crisis of 2008 and 2009 took a heavy toll on the South African economy. The economy contracted for the first time since 1998 and entered recession during the fourth quarter of 2008. The gross domestic product contraction was soon transmitted to the labour market. Between the second quarters of 2008 and 2009, employment fell by 3.8%. However, not all individuals were hit with the same intensity. Using panel data from a quarterly labour force survey unique in the African context, we find that human capital (i.e. education as years of schooling and workforce experience) provided a buffer against the shock. After controlling for observable characteristics, education and experience showed the potential to entirely offset the effect of the recession on the likelihood of employment. This has important policy implications, as it strengthens the case for strategic investments in human capital and helps identify the unskilled as having the greatest need for social safety net interventions during a recession.     

Interpersonal Relationship,Service Quality,Seller Expertise: How Important Are They to Adolescent Consumers?

Drawing upon social capital theory and psychosocial development theory, this paper argues that a true buyer–seller relationship is a key determinant of favorable consumer behaviors for adolescent consumers of hairstylist services. Other important determinants include quality of the service delivery process (i.e., service quality as measured by the five SERVQUAL factors) and quality of the core service (in this case, the hairstylist's expertise). A survey of 350 adolescent consumers confirms these predictions. It shows that a true interpersonal relationship negatively moderates the positive effects of service quality on consumer satisfaction with, and overall assessment of the hairstylist. This negative moderating effect is labeled resource substitution benefit and the argument made that this is the fourth social capital benefit. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Fatou property,representations, and extensions of law-invariant risk measures on general Orlicz spaces

We provide a variety of results for quasiconvex, law-invariant functionals defined on a general Orlicz space, which extend well-known results from the setting of bounded random variables. First, we show that Delbaen’s representation of convex functionals with the Fatou property, which fails in a general Orlicz space, can always be achieved under the assumption of law-invariance. Second, we identify the class of Orlicz spaces where the characterization of the Fatou property in terms of norm-lower semicontinuity by Jouini, Schachermayer and Touzi continues to hold. Third, we extend Kusuoka’s representation to a general Orlicz space. Finally, we prove a version of the extension result by Filipovi? and Svindland by replacing norm-lower semicontinuity with the (generally non-equivalent) Fatou property. Our results have natural applications to the theory of risk measures.     

Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy

This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.

Structural models of corporate bond pricing with maximum likelihood estimation

This paper empirically examines the proxy, volatility-restriction (VR) and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches to implementing structural corporate bond pricing models, and documents that ML estimation is the best among the three implementation methods. Empirical studies using either the proxy approach or the VR method conclude that barrier-independent models significantly underestimate corporate bond yields. Although barrier-dependent models tend to overestimate the yield on average, they generate a sizable degree of underestimation. The present paper shows that the proxy approach is an upwardly biased estimator of the corporate assets and makes the empirical framework work systematically against structural models of corporate bond pricing. The VR approach may generate inconsistent corporate bond prices or may fail to give a positive corporate bond price for some structural models. When the Merton, LS, BD and LT models are implemented with ML estimation, we find substantial improvement in their performances. Our empirical analysis shows that the LT model is very accurate for predicting short-term bond yields, whereas the LS and BD models are good predictors for medium-term and long-term bonds. The Merton model however significantly overestimates short-term bond yields and underestimates long-term bond yields. Unlike empirical studies in the past, the Merton model implemented with ML estimation does not consistently underestimate corporate bond yields.     

中国内地银行的外汇风险

本文实证研究使用资本市场法（Capital Market Approach）和14家中资上市银行的股价数据,发现银行规模和其外汇风险之间存在正相关关系。这可能反映了国内大型中资银行更多的外汇操作和交易头寸,以及因人民币汇率变动、对客户风险发生变化所带来的大量间接影响。虽然内地银行对国际市场的参与程度仍低于香港同业,但实证研究结果显示国有商业银行和股份制商业银行的平均外汇风险高于香港银行,而且大银行的外汇风险为负数的情况非常普遍,这意味着人民币升值将降低这些银行的股票价值,从而损害银行业表现。由于股价下跌一般反映违约风险上升,因此应密切监测人民币升值情况对内地银行违约风险可能发生的影响。     

Assessment for Learning: Using Solo Taxonomy to Measure Design Performance of Design & Technology Students

One objective of Design &; Technology (D&;T) is to enable students to be inventive in designing practical solutions to problems. D&;T is viewed as being successful when students can demonstrate the ability to recognize problems, undertake inquiries by themselves, and contribute ideas accordingly. This article will discuss a study which investigated an alternative approach to assessing students’ design performances. In the study, a new item format was designed and a new criterion framework of assessment based on Biggs’ SOLO Taxonomy was developed. The evidence from this study indicates strong face validity for the new approach which maps closely to the goals and purposes of learning D&;T.     

Productivity of Singapore's Manufacturing Sector: An Industry Level Non-Parametric Study

This paper seeks to measure and to explain the productivity of Singapore's manufacturing sector using industry level data. It utilises a non-parametric approach consisting of a set of production distance functions, each of which is obtained by solving a linear programming problem. From a time-series of 1983 to 1993, across thirty industries, we obtain three indices: a Malmquist total factor productivity (TFP) index, an efficiency change index, and a technological change index. The resulting TFP growth stands at 4.6% per annum, considerably greater than previous estimates using aggregate country level data. Three-stage least squares are then applied to the pooled data. Foreign ownership and labour quality are found to have important impact on TFP growth.     

Relating International Trade to the Housing Market

Studies of tariffs have tended to ignore their impact on housing markets. This paper builds a simple dynamic general-equilibrium model to bridge the gap. The model is consistent with empirical findings that housing prices in several small open economies, and the price of nontradeables relative to tradeables, have increased over time. The model also allows closed-form solutions of the elasticity of the economic growth rate, the housing-stock growth rate, and the housing-price growth rate, with respect to the tariff rate. Other testable implications are generated.