Interstate migration in Mexico: variations on the Todaro theme

"This study of migration in Mexico is based upon a modified Todaro approach and utilizes census data in a simultaneous equations model of 13 variables. It is unique in several ways: (a) it introduces proxy variables for employment probability and cost of migration that have not heretofore been found in the literature, but for which data are often available; (b) it illustrates that in some important cases census data have advantages not available through surveys; and (c) it finds that in some sense land reform in Mexico may have operated perversely. Finally, the study opens a new avenue for the study of informal sector growth."     

Air Pollution and ‘Dirty’ Industries: How and Why Does the Composition of Manufacturing Output Change with Economic Development?

This paper examines the impact on air pollution ofchanges in the composition of manufacturing output indeveloped and developing countries. Pollutionemissions from manufacturing output are estimated ina manner which holds constant the effect of technologyand regulations allowing the impact of compositional changes alone on pollution to beestimated. The paper has three main findings; (1) theinverted-U estimated between per capita income and thepollution intensity of GDP arises due to both thecomposition of manufacturing becoming cleaner and theshare of manufacturing output in GDP falling.Compositional changes alone are not responsible forthe inverted-U between per capita income and percapita emissions; (2) changes to the composition ofmanufacturing output are consistent with the pollutionhaven hypothesis, however there is clear evidence thatrising per capita incomes are associated with afalling income elasticity of demand for `dirty'products. This fact may explain the compositionalchanges that occur with development; (3) in additionto the income elasticity effect, the analysis suggeststhat land prices and to a lesser extent the prices oflabour and capital, determine the proportion of dirtyindustry within a country's manufacturing sector.     

Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises

We characterize the values of government debt and the debt's maturitystructure under which financial crises brought on by a loss of confidence inthe government can arise within a dynamic, stochastic general equilibriummodel. We also characterize the optimal policy response of the government tothe threat of such a crisis. We show that when the country's fundamentalsplace it inside the crisis zone, the government may be motivated to reduceits debt and exit the crisis zone because this leads to an economic boom anda reduction in the interest rate on the government's debt. We show thatthis reduction can be gradual if debt is high or the probability of a crisisis low. We also show that, while lengthening the maturity of the debt canshrink the crisis zone, credibility-inducing policies can have perverseeffects.     

Expropriation and direct investment

The paper considers a model in which private foreign investors make direct long-lived capital investments in a small developing country that is subject to stochastic shocks to production. Depending upon the preferences of the host country, we find that expropriation can occur because of either 'desperation or ‘opportunism’. We show that under reasonable assumptions increased investment makes expropriation less likely to occur, and that the level of investment chosen by atomistic foreign investors may be non-optimal.     

Predicting Bank Failures: A Comparison of On- and Off-Site Monitoring Systems

On-site examinations are regulators' primary tool for monitoring the financial condition of federally insured depository institutions. In this paper, we assess the speed with which the information content of the supervisory rating assigned during bank exams—the CAMEL rating—decays. This is an important issue because cost and regulatory burden considerations often cause CAMEL ratings to be assigned relatively infrequently. As a benchmark for information content, we use econometric forecasts of bank failures generated by applying a probit model to publicly available accounting data. When compared with all CAMEL ratings available at a given point in time, the econometric forecasts provide a more accurate indication of failure. Further analysis reveals that this overall finding reflects the tendency for a CAMEL rating's information content to deteriorate noticeably beginning in the second or third quarter after the rating initially was assigned.     

Book Reviews

Water is a human right and it is essential to sustain life and livelihoods, as well as the health and happiness of tourists. This paper examines a destination with ample rain, but rapid and unchecked tourism development: Bali, Indonesia. The mismanagement of water resources means underground supplies are polluted and local people suffer from water scarcity. A multi-method approach with the various stakeholders was used to develop a stakeholder map that identifies duty bearers and rights holders. The government is the primary legal duty bearer to provide communities with water, but companies also have unique responsibilities. This paper examines why tourism businesses need to conduct human rights impact assessments. Taking due diligence for human rights can be seen as a business opportunity, leading to reduced operating costs and increased reputational strength. The benefits and challenges for business are explored.     

Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around

In this study, we analyze why commercial banks failed during the recent financial crisis. We find that traditional proxies for the CAMELS components, as well as measures of commercial real estate investments, do an excellent job in explaining the failures of banks that were closed during 2009, just as they did in the previous banking crisis of 1985–1992. Surprisingly, we do not find that residential mortgage-backed securities played a significant role in determining which banks failed and which banks survived. Our results offer support for the CAMELS approach to judging the safety and soundness of commercial banks, but call, into serious question the current system of regulatory risk weights and concentration limits on commercial real estate loans.     

ATE行业增效求生存

如今,运营重点集中在减少成本和增强快速响应能力上自从2001年,自动测试设备(ATE)市场增长相当缓慢甚至陷于停滞,然而,ATE制造商Advantest(爱德万)、Agilent(安捷伦)、Credence(科利登)和 Teradyne(泰瑞达)为了争夺市场份     

资本设备销售完成今年预期值

随着全球各地涌现出40多家新代工厂,分别处于在建、添加新设备或者扩大生产规模的状态,加之电子行业目前正由200mm转向300mm晶圆生产,资本设备的定购额目前已经达到许多分析家当初所预计的2006年全年的产量。事实上,国际半导体设备与材料公会(SEMI)在其最新一期网络季报中,对2006年资本设备市场增长的预测比原来翻了一番还多(原始预计增长率为9%,而现在已提升到20%)。明年这一市场的增长很可能不会像最初所预计的那样强劲,但     

Educational Insights: A Hybrid Course in Risk Management and Insurance

Universities and colleges continue to face constraints related to classroom space and faculty time, thus increasing the need to consider options such as hybrid courses that can leverage available resources. This article discusses the benefits of a hybrid course, as well as its design and implementation at a large, public university. In addition, for universities that use the introduction to risk and insurance course as a significant course for attracting majors, we identify the benefits for students from the use of hybrid courses, such as the variety of materials and activities utilized, as well as the flexibility in scheduling. This information may be useful in marketing the course so that it will be immediately attractive to students.