Trading based on forecasts of earnings per share: A test of the efficient market hypothesis

In this paper the semi-strong form of the efficient market hypothesis is tested with a trading rule based on Box-Jenkins forecasts of earnings per share numbers. The quarterly earnings per share series are modeled for a number of firms. The models are updated quarter by quarter and investments are made in the stocks with the largest forecasted growth rates for the next quarter. The risk-adjusted performance of such a strategy is shown to be inconsistant with semi-strong market efficiency.     

Goal interdependence and quality in services marketing

Service quality is considered an important competitive edge because it generates repeat sales, positive word of mouth, customer loyalty, and competitive product differentiation. This study examines the impact of a company's cooperative or competitive orientation and the service provider's warm or cold communication style on customer evaluation of service quality. Results from 83 participants in a simulated bank interview experiment indicate that when the bank communicated a cooperative orientation they perceived it as offering a higher-quality service than when it had competitive or individualistic goals. The warmth of the service personnel contributed to high-quality service, liking the bank representative, future confidence in dealing with the bank, satisfaction with the interview, and willingness to be interviewed by the bank representative in the future. These results were interpreted as suggesting that companies who can demonstrate a strong cooperative orientation toward customers and whose service providers demonstrate warmth will be considered to offer high-quality services. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Recent trends in intra-industry trade and their implications for future trade liberalization

Zusammenfassung Jüngste Entwicklungen im intra-industriellen Handel und ihre Bedeutung für eine künftige Handelsliberalisierung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird untersucht, ob sich die Muster des intra-industriellen Handels (IIH) aus den sechziger und siebziger Jahren in den achtziger Jahren fortgesetzt haben. Es wird gefragt, ob der historische Nachkriegstrend in Richtung auf einen verst?rkten IIH umgekehrt wurde und — falls das der Fall war — weshalb. In der Analyse werden Daten aus 16 OECD-L?ndern für die Perioden 1970–1980 und 1975–1985 verwendet. Die Entwicklung des IIH scheint besonders für die Handelsabkommen relevant zu sein, bei denen die Partner erwarten, da\ die haupts?chlichen Handelsanpassungen innerhalb der Firmen und Industriezweige stattfinden und weniger zwischen den Industriezweigen. Zwei kürzlich abgeschlossene bilaterale Abkommen — zwischen Neuseeland und Australien und zwischen Kanada und den Vereinigten Staaten — beleuchten diese Fragestellung.

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Résumé Les tendances récentes du commerce intra-industriel et leurs effets sur la libéralisation du commerce extérieur en futur. — Cette étude examine si les caractéristiques du commerce intra-industriel dans les années soixante et soixante-dix sont les mêmes comme dans les années quatre-vingt. Il est demandé si la tendance historique après la dernière guerre mondiale vers un commerce intra-industriel plus fort s’est changée et, si oui, quelles sont les causes d’une telle évolution. L’analyse compend des données de 16 pays de l’OCDE pour les années 1970–1980 et 1975–1985. Les tendances du commerce intra-industriel semblent être particulièrement importantes pour les accords du commerce en futur si les partenaires attendent que les ajustements primaires ont lieu plus en firmes et en industries qu’entre des secteurs industriels. Deux accords bilatéraux donnent un exemple récent: c’est l’accord entre la Nouvelle Zélande et l’Australie et celui entre le Canada et les Etats Unis.

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Resumen Tendencias recientes en el comercio intrasectorial y sus implicaciones para una futura liberalización del comercio. — En este trabajo se investiga si el patrón de comercio intrasectorial (CIS) de la década del 60 y del 70 continué en los a?os 80. Se pregunta, si la tendencia histórica de la posguerra indicando un aumento del CIS se ha revertido, y, en caso de ser así, ?porqué? El análisis cubre datos para 16 países miembros de la OECD para dos periodos, 1970–1980 y 1975–1985. La tendencia del CIS parece ser particularmente relevante para futuros acuerdos comerciales en los cuales los participantes esperan que los ajustes primarios en el comercio tengan lugar dentro de las empresas y dentro de los sectores industriales, en vez de entre los sectores. Dos acuerdos bilaterales recientes, firmados entre Nueva Zelandia y Australia por un lado y entre Canadá y los EE.UU. por el otro, arrojan algo de luz sobre el tema.

     

Impact of stakeholder characteristics on voluntary dissemination of interim information and communication of its level of assurance

Equity of access to information for listed entities is a key principle in an efficient and effective market. Direct mailing is a mechanism for achieving this. This study examines equity of access by identifying the half‐yearly financial information, if any, voluntarily mailed out by Australian listed entities and associated stakeholder characteristics. We find that certain stakeholder characteristics (presence of audit committee and shareholder dispersion) are associated with voluntary mail‐out of half‐yearly financial information, along with certain control variables (size of entity, industry and audit opinion). This study further identifies that there are very few instances of the higher level of assurance (audit) being chosen, and where half‐year information is disseminated there are very few instances of the level of assurance on this information being communicated to shareholders.     

推进生态产品价值创造的流域综合治理项目管理模式优化研究——以深莞茅洲河流域水环境治理项目为例

在全国大力发展生态文明背景下,生态产品价值对流域综合治理项目效益提出了更高的要求。生态产品价值创造视角下流域综合治理项目更加关注生态、经济、社会效益的统一,而传统的流域综合治理项目在推进生态产品价值创造的过程中仍然存在如协同治理的缺失、源头治理的忽视、施工效率的低下等诸多问题,严重影响了生态产品价值挖掘的充分性与高效性。文章基于系统均衡理论,以中国电力建设股份有限公司所开展的深莞茅洲河流域水环境治理项目为例,总结流域综合治理项目管理模式经验,并提出科学顶层设计、完善实施路径、创新项目实施模式三个维度的优化措施,助力流域提高生态产品供给量,实现人和自然和谐共生的流域综合治理目标。以生态产品价值创造的视角研究流域综合治理项目效益,进一步深化了流域综合治理理论的发展,为全国流域综合治理提供可参考的经验。     

Audit Market Structure and Competition in Australia

The purpose of this review is to synthesise the existing research literature regarding the underlying structure and competitiveness of the Australian audit market. We consider the findings of Australian academic research, which has examined audit fees, non‐audit fees, market concentration, auditor choice, auditor switching and audit firm mergers. We identify the key metrics used to evaluate market structure in the academic literature and then document changes in these metrics in the Australian audit market for listed company audits during the period 2000–2011. Our analysis shows that the audit market is both highly segmented and supplier‐concentrated. We find that audit fees in Australia have increased over this period, which can be attributed to increased regulation and resulting increased audit effort needed to complete audit engagements in times of regulatory change and more recently, the global financial crisis. We provide regulators, standard setters and the profession with an evidenced‐based perspective on the market for the listed company audits, which is an important input into any future proposals to regulate the Australian audit market.     

A copula-VAR-X approach for industrial production modelling and forecasting

World economies, and especially European ones, have become strongly interconnected in the last decade and a joint modelling is required. We propose here the use of copulae to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a rich dependence structure and more flexible marginal distributions that better fit the features of empirical data, such as leptokurtosis. We use our approach to forecast industrial production series in the core European Monetary Union (EMU) countries and we provide evidence that the copula-Vector Autoregression (VAR) model outperforms or at worst compares similarly to normal VAR models, keeping the same computational tractability of the latter approach.     

Accounting academic elites: The tale of ARIA

“Golden age” accounting theorists Robert Sterling, George Staubus, Yuji Ijiri and Arthur Thomas joined together to create an elite organisation, the Accounting Researchers International Association (ARIA) in 1974, with its chief instigator Robert “Bob” Sterling serving as its first President. Written correspondence between the early members, in conjunction with oral testimony, suggest that ARIA’s formation was motivated by a desire to protect and advance normative-based research. The early members also shared a mutual zeal for intellectual progress and a common passion to rid accounting practices of its defects. They shared a conviction that bringing together a well-recognised, dedicated group of scholars would create an environment in which individual differences would wilt under the pressure of scholarship.