The Effect of Format Changes and Ownership Consolidation on Radio Station Outcomes

Analyzing a panel dataset tracking format changes and ownership consolidation in local radio markets, we find that format changes frequently have enabled stations to improve their performance, The success of reformatting varies widely across format, and the likelihood that changing to another format will boost station performance declines as that format space becomes more crowded, Successful reformatting is not limited to large radio groups, In fact, weak evidence that radio groups garner economies of scope from owning multiple stations in the same format is the only indication we find that larger radio groups have been able to choose formats strategically in order to obtain a boost in their listening shares. In the face of substantial and, ongoing ownership consolidation in local radio markets, our results suggest that format changes by smaller station groups may counter the potential exercise of market power by a radio group that acquires a substantial share of a particular audience demographic through merger.     

Book Reviews

Colin Macandrews (Ed.), Central Government and Local Development in Indonesia, Singapore: Oxford University Press, East Asian Social Science Monographs, 1986, pp. 270, 36 Tables, 2 Figures, 4 Maps.

Himpunan Peraturan Perundang-undangan Republik Indonesia di Bidang Ketenaga-kerjaan [Labour Legislation in Indonesia], Vols I-III, Jakarta: P.T. Twins, 1986.

Michael A. Costello, Thomas R. Leinbach and Richard Ulack, with Marilou Palabrica-Costello and Bambang Suwarno, Mobility and Employment in Urban Southeast Asia: Examples From Indonesia and the Philippines, Boulder: Westview Press, 1987, pp. xvi + 191. $Us 26.50.

Susan Abeyasekere, Jakarta: A History, Singapore: Oxford U.P., 1987, pp. xvii + 280. Cloth: $45.00.

David P. Chandler and M.C. Ricklefs (Eds), Nineteenth and Twentieth Century Indonesia: Essays in Honour of Professor J.D. Legge, Clayton, Vic. : Monash University Centre of Southeast Asian Studies, 1986, pp. 281. $14.00.

Graeme J. Hugo, Terence H. Hull, Valerie J. Hull, Gavin W. Jones, The Demographic Dimension in Indonesian Development, Singapore: Oxford University Press, 1987, pp. xxv + 417. $50.00.

I Ketut Nehen and Ian R. Wills, Land Preparation in West Java: Benefits and Costs of Alternative Techniques, Agency For Agricultural Research and Development, Indonesia, and International Rice Research Institute, 1986, pp. xii + 159.

Michael Smith et al., Asia's New Industrial World, London: Methuen, 1985, pp. vi + 136. £2.95.

Australian Institute of Urban Studies, Review of Australian Assistance to the Indonesian Water Supply and Sanitation Sector, A Report for the Australian Development Assistance Bureau, 1986, pp. xxxiii + 305, $26.00 plus postage.     

Job-worker mismatch and cognitive decline

We have used longitudinal test data on various aspects of people'scognitive abilities to analyse whether overeducated workersare more vulnerable to a decline in their cognitive abilities,and undereducated workers are less vulnerable. We found thata job-worker mismatch induces a cognitive decline with respectto immediate and delayed recall abilities, cognitive flexibilityand verbal fluency. Our findings indicate that, to some extent,it is the adjustment of the ability level of the overeducatedand undereducated workers that adjusts initial job-worker mismatch.This adds to the relevance of preventing overeducation, andshows that being employed in a challenging job contributes toworkers’ cognitive resilience.     

HOW REVOLUTIONARY IS THE “NERICA REVOLUTION”? EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA

A new high‐yielding upland rice variety known as New Rice for Africa (NERICA) has been widely recognized as a promising technology for addressing the food shortage in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there has been no on‐farm yield data to support this optimism. The present study attempts to assess the actual and potential yield of NERICA in Uganda where it has been introduced recently. We found that NERICA's yield is higher (2.5 tons) for farmers who had rice‐growing experience than those who had no previous experience (1.7 tons). These findings strongly indicate that strengthening training, extension, and other supporting systems is the key to the success of the “NERICA revolution” in this country.     

Globalisation and Policy Effects in Africa

Globalisation or market integration in Sub‐Saharan Africa is closely linked to the structural adjustment programmes. In this paper we focus on their dependence on the politics and institutional characteristics of the countries concerned. In particular, we argue that one important explanation for the dismal performance of many African countries, in spite of all the measures taken towards market liberalisation, is the combination of, first, a magnification of the effects of policy and, second, a lack of willingness or ability on the part of politicians to respect the restrictions imposed on their behaviour and policy choices by the liberalised markets. We look at how the increased exposure to international prices and returns on assets make the economic equilibrium relations – the law of one price and uncovered interest parity – relevant guidelines for economic policy. The argument is illustrated by the case of Zimbabwe, where lack of respect for the restrictions imposed by international markets has led to an economic crisis with negative growth rates and a departure from globalisation.     

The determinants of Norwegian exporters’ foreign exchange risk management

Abstract

This paper examines foreign exchange (FX) hedging by Norwegian exporting firms to provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the hedging decision. The paper contributes to prior studies by, first, focusing on exporters to ensure that the companies in the sample have FX exposure, thereby allowing a more rigorous test of the theoretical determinants of hedging, and, secondly, in contrast to most previous studies that have focused on FX external hedging instruments, the use of both internal and external instruments is examined. Univariate, multivariate and multinominal analyses all provide evidence consistent with the firm value maximization hypotheses of underinvestment and risk aversion. Also, the following characteristics of firms—size, extent of internationalization and liquidity—are found to be related to the decision to hedge FX risk. However, the evidence on the links between the firm characteristics and the decision to hedge is not consistent across internal and external FX hedgers, and also varies for individual hedging instruments. Therefore it is argued that the empirical evidence on the theoretical determinants cannot be generalized to cover the full range of FX hedging strategies (which includes internal hedging instruments). Unlike empirical studies for other countries the evidence for Norwegian firms does not support the hypothesis that the avoidance of financial distress and the need to resort to external capital markets is a significant determinant of the hedging decision. Whilst the evidence suggests that country-specific factors may play a role in determining the use of FX hedging, it does not imply that the different policies adopted are necessarily inconsistent with the firm value maximization hypothesis.     

Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison

This paper demonstrates that the Conference Board’s Composite Leading Index (CLI) has significant real-time predictive ability for Industrial Production (IP) growth rates at horizons from one to six months ahead over the period 1989-2009. A popular but unrealistic analysis, which combines real-time data for CLI and final vintage data for IP as predictor variables, obscures the actual predictive content of the CLI, in the sense that in that case, the improvements in forecast accuracy relative to a univariate AR model are not significant. The CLI appears to be less useful for forecasting growth rates of the Conference Board’s Composite Coincident Index (CCI) in real time, as a univariate AR model performs better. This result is mostly due to its disappointing performance during the first five years of the forecast period. The CLI may not be the best way of exploiting the information contained in the underlying individual leading indicator variables. The use of principal components instead of CLI leads to more accurate real-time forecasts for both IP and CCI growth rates.