Strategies to increase agricultural productivity and reduce land degradation: evidence from Uganda

This paper estimates a structural econometric model of household decisions regarding income strategies, participation in programs and organisations, crop choices, land management, and labour use, and their implications for agricultural production and soil erosion; based upon a survey of over 450 households and their farm plots in Uganda. Many factors have context-specific impacts and involve trade-offs between increasing production and reducing land degradation. Government agricultural extension and training programs contribute to higher value of crop production in the lowlands, but to soil erosion in the highlands. By contrast, non-governmental organization (NGO) programs focusing on agriculture and environment help to reduce erosion, but have less favourable impacts on production in the lowlands. Education increases household incomes, but also reduces crop production in the lowlands. Poverty has mixed impacts on agricultural production, depending on the nature of poverty: smaller farms obtain higher crop production per hectare, while households with fewer livestock have lower crop production. Population pressure contributes to agricultural intensification, but also to erosion in the densely populated highlands. Several household income strategies contribute to increased value of crop production, without significant impacts on soil erosion. We find little evidence of impact of access to markets, roads and credit, land tenure or title on agricultural intensification and crop production and land degradation. In general, the results imply that the strategies to increase agricultural production and reduce land degradation must be location-specific, and that there are few 'win-win' opportunities to simultaneously increase production and reduce land degradation.     

Combining self-explicated priors with conjoint data using Bayesian regression

A Bayesian regression procedure (RBAYES) is proposed for the optimal combination of self-explicated data (priors) and conjoint judgments. The procedure does not require the design matrix for the conjoint judgments to be of full rank. The Bayesian regression procedure is similar to weighted least square in that it uses an information ratio to weight the priors. We provide empirical comparisons for the proposed method against (1) a Stein-type estimator (SBAYES) using one data set and (2) OLS applied to the data from an adaptive conjoint analysis using a second data set. In the second application we also use an alternating least squares procedure by itself and in combination with Bayesian regression (RBAYES+) to accommodate scale incompatibility as well as heteroscedasticity. In both applications we obtain superior results for the Bayesian regression procedure.     

Socio-economic evaluation of mental health as a basis for financing health care in Sweden

The objective of this paper is to examine hypotheses about the relationships between socio-economic factors, risk factors in working life, and the occurrence of mental illness, together with the degree of quality of life and consumption of health care, costs for health care, and costs for social insurance. This is a prospective and longitudinal study of 1,347 individuals of an active working age, 18–64 years, who have been on sick leave for more than 30 days. The group is characterized by the prevalence of risk factors in their work environment and welfare losses, such as multiple health problems, poor quality of life, inability to work, and dependency on society's support from health care and social insurance. The costs for health care were just over 2.8 million SEK, or 30 percent higher for those with psychological distress as compared to the group without. The payments from social insurance also increased by approximately 15 percent. The relatively greater weighting of health care costs and sickness cash benefits were motivating factors to study whether this group had an optimal amount and quality of health care, or if the resources available for health care should be distributed in another way that better satisfies the needs of the group.     

Debt as a collusive device in an oligopoly supergame

This paper explores the impact of debt holdings on the output decisions of firms in an oligopoly supergame with stochastic demand fluctuations. It is demonstrated that when perfect collusion is not feasible then there exist circumstances in which increased debt holdings may facilitate tacit collusion. This occurs because higher debt levels act as a credible commitment device which lowers the payoffs accruing to a firm when it defects from the tacitly collusive equilibrium. It is further shown that in these circumstances firms may have an incentive to hold debt for strategic purposes which promote collusion.     

Vacation decisions,activities, and satisfactions

Vacations are a major consumer expense category. People devote considerable attention to deciding whether to take one or not (generic decision), to making joint decisions as husband, wife, and children, and to acquiring information from different sources and media. Information functions to sensitize, persuade, heighten appreciation, and legitimize choices. Several vacation types can be distinguished. Life-style, as a broader concept, may server as a good basis of explanation for vacation behavior. Equity and attribution are important concepts in understanding vacationer (dis)satisfaction and complaint behavior.     

Optimal portfolios with minimum capital requirements

We propose a novel approach to active risk management based on the recent Basel II regulations to obtain optimal portfolios with minimum capital requirements. In order to avoid regulatory penalties due to an excessive number of Value-at-Risk (VaR) violations, capital requirements are minimized subject to a given number of violations over the previous trading year. Capital requirements are based on the recent Basel II amendments to account for the ‘stressed’ VaR, that is, the downside risk of the portfolio under extreme adverse market conditions. An empirical application for two portfolios involving different types of assets and alternative stress scenarios demonstrates that the proposed approach delivers an improved balance between capital requirement levels and the number of VaR exceedances. Furthermore, the risk-adjusted performance of the proposed approach is superior to that of minimum-VaR and minimum-stressed VaR portfolios.     

How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?

Because the state of the equity market is latent, several methods have been proposed to identify past and current states of the market and forecast future ones. These methods encompass semi‐parametric rule‐based methods and parametric Markov switching models. We compare the mean‐variance utilities that result when a risk‐averse agent uses the predictions of the different methods in an investment decision. Our application of this framework to the S&P 500 shows that rule‐based methods are preferable for (in‐sample) identification of the state of the market, but Markov switching models for (out‐of‐sample) forecasting. In‐sample, only the mean return of the market index matters, which rule‐based methods exactly capture. Because Markov switching models use both the mean and the variance to infer the state, they produce superior forecasts and lead to significantly better out‐of‐sample performance than rule‐based methods. We conclude that the variance is a crucial ingredient for forecasting the market state. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The short-run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on three developing economies: Columbia,Ivory Coast and Kenya

Computable general equilibrium models are used to study the short-run impact of fluctuating primary commodity prices on the economies of Columbia, Ivory Coast and Kenya. The results indicate that these economies are destabilized by primary commodity price fluctuations unless governments act to hold real domestic absorption constant. To achieve this, however, would require foreign exchange reserves in excess of the level normally available to these governments for the purpose of stabilizing domestic economic activity.