Some unfamiliar dynamics of a familiar macro model a note

The idea that for small disturbances the full employment equilibrium is stable while for large disturbances it is unstable was coined by Leijonhufvud in the notion of a corridor. We discuss the existence of a corridor in the standard Keynesian-monetarist textbook macro-model. It turns out that though the full employment steady state of this model may be locally stable — which is the case when the well-known Cagan condition holds — the model is never globally stable. This is due to the inherent non-linearity in the demand for money function, arising from non-negativity of the nominal rate of interest. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, the Cagan condition is both necessary and sufficient for the existence of a corridor in the Keynesian-monetarist model.This note is adapted from a paper presented at the European Meeting of the Econometric Society, Bologna, August 1988. I would like to thank Søren Bo Nielsen and Peter Birch Sørensen (Copenhagen Business School), Thomas Lux (University of Bamberg), and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and suggestions. Remaining errors and shortcomings are mine.     

Evaluating Political Risk Forecasting Models: What Works?

Definitions of “political risk” abound, including with “assessments” or “analysis,” but even though ratings are widely used by investors, few understand either the theory behind particular instruments or what the ratings say about their potential investment. The assessment of political risk works backward from losses to foreign investors (not domestic) that could have been insured or protected, to a determination of how high the risk is, what the cost of the likely loss might be, the type of insurance coverage that might be necessary, and then to what an investor should be willing to pay to protect against that risk. A wide range of potential losses and potential causes of those losses is covered by the many political risk assessment firms and indices that are available to potential investors. BERI, the PRS Group, ICRG, the Eurasia Group, PERC (Hong Kong), and many others provide an array of ratings that investors can employ in making their choices. Few of these focus on the critical element of forecasting. Insurance doesn't relate to circumstances of the moment but rather those of the future. What will they be? Just a few of the risk assessments (PRS, BERI, ICRG) deal explicitly with the future, as good as that might be. Few also deal with the matter of risks to particular industries, companies, regions of a country, or external circumstances (what are the country's neighbors up to?). This article offers some suggestions on improving the political risk assessment business. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Corporate Side of the Blogosphere: Examining the Variations of Design and Engagement Among Fortune 500 Blogs

Using design and communication principles, this study uses a content analysis design to evaluate all active blogs from the 2011 Fortune 500 list (n = 125). The results indicate that corporate America has only modestly incorporated the dialogic principles into their blogs. Current corporate blogs are well-designed as far as making them searchable and easy to navigate; however, the blogs are mostly being used to provide information in a one-way manner rather than creating an open dialogue with consumers. While blogging can enhance relationships with stakeholders, corporate communicators must strive to develop legitimate conversations with their blog readers.     

Did households’ time preference change due to the Great Recession?

Household time preference for US households, as measured by the planning horizon, was fairly stable for many years, but sharply changed with the onset of the Great Recession. Based on an analysis of a combination of the 1992–2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) datasets, time preference increased in 2010 and remained high in 2013, indicating households were less patient after the onset of the recession. This pattern held up even after controlling for household characteristics.     

A Critical Analysis of the Accounting Industry’s Voluntary Code of Conduct

The public accounting industry’s voluntary code of conduct in the United States is the American Institute of CPA’s Code of Professional Conduct. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the accounting industry’s current code is limited in its ability to serve the public interest in three respects. Specifically, the code is input-based, requires no third-party attestation of compliance with the code, and contains no public reporting process of code compliance/noncompliance at the accounting firm level. We propose that the accounting profession should reorient its largely input-based Code of Professional Conduct to include output-based performance measurements. We also conclude that third-party attestation of compliance with the profession’s code would help to promote compliance. Finally, we maintain that the accounting industry should initiate a public reporting process at the individual accounting firm level. Such a requirement would add a degree of public accountability as to whether a firm complies or fails to comply with the industry’s voluntary code of conduct. John D. Neill, Ph.D., CPA, is a professor of accounting at Abilene Christian University and has previously published articles in numerous journals including the Journal of Business Ethics, Journal of Accounting Literature, Accounting Horizons, Advances in Accounting,theFinancial Analysts Journal,and theJournal of Accounting, Ethics, and Public Policy. O. Scott Stovall, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of accounting at Abilene Christian University and has published articles in the Journal of Business Ethics, Management Accounting Quarterly, and Cases from Management Accounting Practice. Darryl L. Jinkerson, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of management and chair of the Management Sciences Department at Abilene Christian University and was formerly the Director of Assessment and Measurement for Arthur Andersen.     

Versicherungsvertragliche Anzeigepflicht und Garantiehaftung für culpa in contrahendo

To sanction the insurant’s obligation to disclose the risk-relevant circumstances by the insurer’s exemption from performance does not comply with the ordinary pattern of pre-contractual liability. Instead of making the insurant responsible for the consequences of his breach of duty, the German Insurance Act subjects him to a guarantee which is comparable to the one imposed by the German Civil Code in the case of initial impossibility. The insurant has to guarantee that the facts which he did not, or at least not entirely, disclose do not cause any obligation of the insurer. The structure of this sanction is equivalent to the insurer’s so-called liability of performance. But contrary to the latter it can be justified by the specific importance of the insurant’s pre-contractual obligation of disclosure.     

An Empirical Investigation of Japanese Consumer Ethics

One of the gaps in the current international marketing literature is in the area of consumer ethics. Using a sample drawn from Japanese consumers, this study investigates these individuals' reported ethical ideology and their perception of a number of different ethical situations in the realm of consumer behavior. Comparisons are then made across several demographic characteristics. The results reveal differences which provide theoretical support for expanded research in the area of cross-cultural/cross-national consumer ethics and highlight the need for managers to consider possible differences in the ethical behavior of consumers when entering a new international market. In addition, this study extends current knowledge in international marketing ethics by utilizing a research design and survey instruments similar to previous studies on consumer ethics.     

Abschätzung der Varianz stetiger Merkmale aus Intervallbreite und Mittelwert

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Optimale Schichtabgrenzung bei logarithmischer Normalverteilung

Zusammenfassung Optimale Schichtgrenzen werden under der Voraussetzung ermittelt, da? das Schichtungsmerkmal einer logarithmischen Normalverteilung folgt und gleich dem Untersuchungsmerkmal ist.