Security price formation and informed trading with constrained short selling

Short sale orders account for a substantial portion of trading volume in recent years. This paper develops a sequential trade model with constrained short selling to derive the effect on prices when the market maker can observe short selling in the order flow. The model predicts that market quotes will adjust differently to short sales and regular sales. Furthermore, the model shows that the probability of informed trading is impacted both by the level of short sale constraints and the intensity of actual short sale trades. Simulation evidence confirms that estimates of the probability of informed trade are improved when accounting for past short selling activity. The results demonstrate the information benefits of short selling transparency.

     

The price of fear: Estimating the financial cost of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England

Using a spectrum of measures, this paper estimates some of the financial costs of bullying and harassment to the NHS in England. By means of specific impacts resulting from bullying and harassment to staff health, sickness absence costs to the employer, employee turnover, diminished productivity, sickness presenteeism, compensation, litigation and industrial relations costs, we conservatively estimate bullying and harassment to cost the taxpayer £2.281 billion per annum.     

Unequal inequalities: Do progressive taxes reduce income inequality?

This paper analyzes the effect of changes in the structural progressivity of national income tax systems on observed and actual income inequality. Using several unique measures of progressivity over the 1981–2005 period for a large panel of countries, we find that progressivity reduces inequality in observed income, but has a significantly smaller impact on actual inequality, approximated by consumption-based Ginis. An empirical comparative analysis shows that the differential effect on observed versus actual inequality is much larger in countries with weaker legal institutions. We also find that structural progressivity has a greater equalizing effect in environments that support pro-poor redistribution. Substantial differences in inequality response to changes in top versus bottom rates are also uncovered.     

Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs

Predictive models of health care costs have become mainstream in much health care actuarial work. The Affordable Care Act requires the use of predictive modeling-based risk-adjuster models to transfer revenue between different health exchange participants. Although the predictive accuracy of these models has been investigated in a number of studies, the accuracy and use of models for applications other than risk adjustment have not been the subject of much investigation. We investigate predictive modeling of future health care costs using several statistical techniques. Our analysis was performed based on a dataset of 30,000 insureds containing claims information from two contiguous years. The dataset contains more than 100 covariates for each insured, including detailed breakdown of past costs and causes encoded via coexisting condition flags. We discuss statistical models for the relationship between next-year costs and medical and cost information to predict the mean and quantiles of future cost, ranking risks and identifying most predictive covariates. A comparison of multiple models is presented, including (in addition to the traditional linear regression model underlying risk adjusters) Lasso GLM, multivariate adaptive regression splines, random forests, decision trees, and boosted trees. A detailed performance analysis shows that the traditional regression approach does not perform well and that more accurate models are possible.     

Always Leave Home Without It: A Further Investigation of the Credit-Card Effect on Willingness to Pay

In studies involving genuine transactions of potentially high value we show that willingness-to-pay can be increased when customers are instructed to use a credit card rather than cash. The effect may be large (up to 100%) and it appears unlikely that it arises due solely to liquidity constraints. In addition to demonstrating the effect, we provide a methodology for detecting it, and our findings suggest a source of variance to test alternative explanations.     

The nature of local area social exclusion in England and the role of the labour market

The creation of the Social Exclusion Unit by the present governmentin 1997 is just one example of the increased desire by bothacademics and policy-makers to understand more about the factorsthat lead to individuals and communities becoming excluded frommainstream society. Of the many aspects of social exclusionwhich have featured in recent debate, this article focuses ontwo. The first is to describe the nature and the extent of socialexclusion in the areas in which it is concentrated in the UnitedKingdom. The second is to examine the role that labour-marketfactors play in creating, reducing, or sustaining geographicalconcentrations of social exclusion. The article draws upon theresults of social surveys conducted in deprived areas and discussesthe arguments for tackling local concentrations of social exclusionthrough area-based initiatives.     

Standardized Multinational Advertising: The Influencing Factors

Abstract

Advertising for multinational products uses standardization most often in strategy, less often in executions, and least often in language. This study's international sample of advertising agency executives considers creative impact the most important and pressure (from time, client, etc.) the least important reason to use some form of standardized advertising. Despite this, it is views on client pressure which explain most of the variance in views on future use of standardization. That is, those respondents who believe that client pressure is increasing also believe that overall use of standardization will increase. A separate sample of agency executives reinforced some of these findings, particularly the role of the successful, big idea and client pressure in making the decision to standardize. Copy research also plays a role in standardization recommendations, but it is not used as extensively as might be necessary.     

Contextualizing the categorical imperative: Category linkages,technology focus,and resource acquisition in nanotechnology entrepreneurship

This paper examines the role of category affiliations in entrepreneurial resource acquisition. Pace existing studies, we suggest category spanning will cause firms to be overlooked or discounted because evaluators assume that they have less expertise than their category-focused competitors; a phenomenon known as the ‘categorical imperative’. We suggest, however, that categories can be related both vertically and horizontally, and that this has important implications for understanding how the actors that span between them are evaluated. Studying startup ventures in nanotube technology, we show that venture capital investments were affected by a firm's position across patent classes that were related at both of these levels of analysis and that the interaction between them had implications for which firms received the largest investments.