A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic.     

Temporal mixture ensemble models for probabilistic forecasting of intraday cryptocurrency volume

Decisions in Economics and Finance - We study the problem of the intraday short-term volume forecasting in cryptocurrency multi-markets. The predictions are built by using transaction and order...     

Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure with permanent-transitory component models

This study proposes a new application of Permanent-Transitory Component Models (PTCMs) to test the Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure (EHTS). Unlike previous approaches, tests based on PTCMs can simultaneously detect departures from rational expectations and time varying term premia. We set out analytically and empirically the links across previous tests and PTCMs. We also show that PTCMs identify an additional restriction for rational expectations, on top of the one-to-one relationship between forward and spot rates, that must be imposed in estimations of term premia. Data for the short-end of the US term structure suggest that both factors contribute to the rejection of the EHTS. Moreover, the empirical estimates of term premia are persistent and exhibit sign fluctuations. Their stochastic properties depend crucially on whether the additional restriction for rational expectations is imposed in estimation.     

Bank shareholding and lending: Complementarity or substitution? Some evidence from a panel of large Italian firms

The paper studies the motivations behind banks’ shareholding of non-financial firms using a panel of large Italian companies in the period 1994–2000. Empirical evidence shows that banks are shareholders of companies that are less profitable, have experienced slower growth, are more indebted, are endowed with collateral and have hard time to repay their debt out of current income. Banks are more likely to hold shares in companies they lend to. Overall the evidence suggests that there is complementarity between bank equity holding and lending. A plausible explanation is the shareholder–debtholder conflict, the evidence is weakly compatible with governance and information hypotheses.     

Towards democratic governance of uncertainty? Contesting notions of participation,control and accountability

Managing risk in international society has posed a new challenge not only to states and international organisations, but also to experts, scientists and citizens. It has generated a demand for new sets of laws, regulations, instruments and governing bodies to tackle various risks such as natural disasters, economic and financial crises, and unintended consequences of policy reforms. Accordingly, new modes of interactions between states, experts and citizens seem to be emerging across countries and in different high-risk sectors. Little research has been done to illuminate interactive and dynamic aspects of emerging governance and regulatory arrangements and their impact on participation, control and accountability in liberal democracies. This special issue has assembled research papers and commentaries from practitioners and academics which critically examine these themes and explore what future research on the ‘world risk society’ could offer to political science and beyond.     

How efficiency shapes market impact

We develop a theory for the market impact of large trading orders, which we call metaorders because they are typically split into small pieces and executed incrementally. Market impact is empirically observed to be a concave function of metaorder size, i.e. the impact per share of large metaorders is smaller than that of small metaorders. We formulate a stylized model of an algorithmic execution service and derive a fair pricing condition, which says that the average transaction price of the metaorder is equal to the price after trading is completed. We show that at equilibrium the distribution of trading volume adjusts to reflect information, and dictates the shape of the impact function. The resulting theory makes empirically testable predictions for the functional form of both the temporary and permanent components of market impact. Based on the commonly observed asymptotic distribution for the volume of large trades, it says that market impact should increase asymptotically roughly as the square root of metaorder size, with average permanent impact relaxing to about two-thirds of peak impact.     

Public utility planning and cost efficiency in a decentralized regulation context: the case of the Italian integrated water service

The reformed Italian water and sewerage industry has several distinctive features. It is based on a decentralized structure where local authorities are entitled to define detailed long-term budget plans that claim to provide efficiency incentives to operating suppliers. Unlike previous studies, this paper analyzes the cost efficiency embedded in these budget plans to evaluate the actual capability of local regulators to adequately orientate firm performance. Several panel data cost frontier models were estimated that incorporate diverse specifications for inefficiency and unobserved heterogeneity terms. The results indicate that the decentralized planning mechanism applied in Italian water and sewerage industry regulation failed in fulfilling the declared goal and further highlights that the time-invariant terms are the prevailing source of cost differences, which may conceal a structural component attributable to persistent inefficiency.     

K-means clustering of item characteristic curves and item information curves via functional principal component analysis

Quality & Quantity - The assessment of students’ performances and learning skills plays a key role in the educational context. Common tools for analyzing test data are item response...     

Unequal we stand: An empirical analysis of economic inequality in the United States, 1967–2006

We conduct a systematic empirical study of cross-sectional inequality in the United States, integrating data from the Current Population Survey, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the Survey of Consumer Finances. In order to understand how different dimensions of inequality are related via choices, markets, and institutions, we follow the mapping suggested by the household budget constraint from individual wages to individual earnings, to household earnings, to disposable income, and, ultimately, to consumption and wealth. We document a continuous and sizable increase in wage inequality over the sample period. Changes in the distribution of hours worked sharpen the rise in earnings inequality before 1982, but mitigate its increase thereafter. Taxes and transfers compress the level of income inequality, especially at the bottom of the distribution, but have little effect on the overall trend. Finally, access to financial markets has limited both the level and growth of consumption inequality.