A cyclical model of exchange rate volatility

In this paper, we investigate the long run dynamics of the intraday range of the GBP/USD, JPY/USD and CHF/USD exchange rates. We use a non-parametric filter to extract the low frequency component of the intraday range, and model the cyclical deviation of the range from the long run trend as a stationary autoregressive process. We use the cyclical volatility model to generate out-of-sample forecasts of exchange rate volatility for horizons of up to 1 year under the assumption that the long run trend is fully persistent. As a benchmark, we compare the forecasts of the cyclical volatility model with those of the range-based EGARCH and FIEGARCH models of Brandt and Jones (2006). Not only does the cyclical volatility model provide a very substantial computational advantage over the EGARCH and FIEGARCH models, but it also offers an improvement in out-of-sample forecast performance.     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

Joint-search theory: New opportunities and new frictions

The job-search problem of couples differs in significant ways from that of singles. We characterize the reservation wage strategies of a couple that perfectly pools income to understand the ramifications of joint search for individual labor market outcomes. Two cases are analyzed. First, when couples are risk averse and pool income, joint search yields new opportunities relative to single-agent search. Second, when spouses receive job offers from multiple locations and incur a cost when living apart, joint search features new frictions and can lead to worse outcomes than single-agent search.     

Does Sustainability Pay? Evidence from the Food Sector

This research investigates sustainability concepts, linking them with social, environmental, and operational activities in the food supply chain. Building on the literature treating social sustainability as an antecedent of environmental sustainability, we present the effects of environmental sustainability on operational performance using constructs that reflect flexibility, quality, and responsiveness. For this purpose, manufacturing companies in the Turkish food industry are surveyed and 101 responses are collected. A partial least squares structural equation model (PLS-SEM) is constructed to test the reliability and the validity of the measurement model and the structural model. The results show that social sustainability is positively associated with environmental sustainability. Moreover, environmental sustainability has a positive influence on operational performance measures: flexibility, quality, and responsiveness with effect sizes that range from medium to large. Organizations in the food supply chain should consider not only the economic, but also the social and the environmental aspects of sustainability. To do this, governments could inform manufacturers in the food sector about the importance of sustainability and encourage them with different incentives towards more sustainable operational practices. This work establishes that investing in social and environmental sustainability returns increased operational performance. The limitation of the research is the size of the sample. In the future, the questionnaire can be used to compare results from other countries and other sectors.     

An empirical investigation of labor income processes

In this paper, I reassess the evidence on labor income risk. There are two leading views on the nature of the income process in the current literature. The first view, which I call the “Restricted Income Profiles” (RIP) process, holds that individuals are subject to large and very persistent shocks, while facing similar life-cycle income profiles. The alternative view, which I call the “Heterogeneous Income Profiles” (HIP) process, holds that individuals are subject to income shocks with modest persistence, while facing individual-specific income profiles. I first show that ignoring profile heterogeneity, when in fact it is present, introduces an upward bias into the estimates of persistence. Second, I estimate a parsimonious parameterization of the HIP process that is suitable for calibrating economic models. The estimated persistence is about 0.8 in the HIP process compared to about 0.99 in the RIP process. Moreover, the heterogeneity in income profiles is estimated to be substantial, explaining between 56 to 75 percent of income inequality at age 55. I also find that profile heterogeneity is substantially larger among higher educated individuals. Third, I discuss the source of identification—in other words, the aspects of labor income data that allow one to distinguish between the HIP and RIP processes. Finally, I show that the main evidence against profile heterogeneity in the existing literature—that the autocorrelations of income changes are small and negative—is also replicated by the HIP process, suggesting that this evidence may have been misinterpreted.     

Residents’ attitudes to tourists visiting their mosques: a case study from Istanbul,Turkey

Resident perception of tourism impacts has been one of the most studied areas of tourism. However, there is an extremely limited literature on resident perceptions of religious tourism development, especially in non-Western countries. This study investigated the attitudes of local residents toward tourists visiting four important mosques in Istanbul, Turkey and their perception of religious tourism development. All residents surveyed were practicing Muslims who prayed in a mosque at least once a year. We found that, in general, local residents are supportive of tourists visiting their mosque, but the level of support may differ based on the demographic and cultural background of the residents as well as on the number of tourists visiting the mosque.     

The effects of certification on total factor productivity: A propensity score matching approach

The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of quality certification on total factor productivity, which is unobservable to and difficult to gauge for firms. To do so, we implement various propensity score matching estimators that handle the self‐selection problem. We use firm‐level data on manufacturing companies in Turkey where firms have devoted significant amounts of resources to get certified. Our findings show that certification does not have any positive effect on total factor productivity. We provide potential explanations for these findings.     

An integrated model for stock replenishment and shipment scheduling under common carrier dispatch costs

We examine a joint inventory replenishment and shipment scheduling problem that arises in the context of a vendor-managed inventory (VMI) arrangement. Since a temporal shipment consolidation policy is being implemented, the inventory requirements at the vendor are affected by the timing and quantity of shipment release. The vendor’s problem is to determine an integrated policy for inventory replenishment and shipment release and to set its parameters. We develop analytical models for computing such integrated policies where it is economical to use common carriage for outbound transportation. We propose algorithmic approaches to set the optimal policy parameter values.