The maximum entropy mortality model: forecasting mortality using statistical moments

ABSTRACT

The age-at-death distribution is a representation of the mortality experience in a population. Although it proves to be highly informative, it is often neglected when it comes to the practice of past or future mortality assessment. We propose an innovative method to mortality modeling and forecasting by making use of the location and shape measures of a density function, i.e. statistical moments. Time series methods for extrapolating a limited number of moments are used and then the reconstruction of the future age-at-death distribution is performed. The predictive power of the method seems to be net superior when compared to the results obtained using classical approaches to extrapolating age-specific-death rates, and the accuracy of the point forecast (MASE) is improved on average by 33% respective to the state-of-the-art, the Lee–Carter model. The method is tested using data from the Human Mortality Database and implemented in a publicly available R package.     

Opportunist dealing in the UK pig meat supply chain: Trader mentalities and alternatives

The scandal surrounding the presence of horsemeat in UK supermarket meat products has focused public attention on the problems of complex, fragmented food supply chains. Through a study of the UK's pig meat supply chain, this paper proposes a new framing of the problem in terms of opportunistic dealing adopted by the supermarkets in vertically disintegrated supply chains, where all actors attempt to pass the risks and costs onto somebody else. This outcome is the result of cultural practices and competences in buyer-led supermarket organizations where strong supermarket chains have the power to capture processor and producer margins. One consequence is that mass-market meat production and processing is close to unviable, as evidenced here by the analysis of the VION Food Group. However, there are mainstream alternatives to the retail-led dysfunctional supply chain. This paper presents an alternative integrated supply chain model using the case of Morrisons, the UK's fourth largest supermarket chain. If fragmented supply chains are not inevitable, the important issue explored in the conclusion is how the inadequacies of government policy, which understands the problem of the sector but is stuck with a competition-based mindset, obstruct the creation of a more sustainable supply chain.     

SHORT‐MATURITY OPTIONS AND JUMP MEMORY

We investigate jump memory using an extensive database of short‐term S&P 500 index options. Jump memory refers to the attenuation of the implied jump intensity and magnitude parameters following a crash event. We use a genetic algorithm to obtain a time series of implied parameter estimates and posit behavioral and rational explanations for parameter attenuation following a crash event. We find that a nested form of the jump‐diffusion model sharpens the remaining parameter estimates and has a negligible effect on pricing accuracy.     

Mobile learning adoption for tourism education in a developing country

Since developing countries are gradually introducing mobile-based tourism education, it is a growing demand to understand the students’ intention to adopt mobile learning. The study used partial least squares-based structural equation modelling to analyse survey data from 176 questionnaires at three tourism education institutes in Bangladesh. The study contributes to the theory of planned behaviour by examining the antecedent impact of innovativeness and moderating effect of self-efficacy. Results confirmed innovativeness as a significant antecedent on the attitude–intention relationship; however, the moderating effect of self-efficacy has not been supported. The study has marketing implications for tourism education institutes and government bodies.     

Promoting passenger comfort and wellbeing in the air: An examination of the in-flight health advice provided by international airlines

Cases of airline passengers developing deep vein thromboses and contracting infectious diseases during flights have led to airlines' provision of in-flight customer health advice coming under increased scrutiny. By means of a manifest content analysis of the information provided in 50 international airlines’ in-flight magazines, this paper examines the nature and presentation of the health advice that is supplied and comments on the different approaches individual airlines adopt.     

Putting the Cart before the Horse? Re-Examining the Relationship between Domestic Savings and Economic Growth in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries

In addition to the standard Granger causality, this paper employs the Toda–Yamamoto approach and instantaneous causality test to examine the causal relationship between domestic savings and economic growth in 10 sub-Saharan African countries utilizing time series data. Findings from both the standard Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto approach are consistent and robust only in five countries where domestic savings and economic growth are completely independent in three countries. For the remaining two, causality runs from savings to growth. However, for the other five countries, findings produced from both causality tests are grossly inconsistent and mixed leaving us under a quandary although the Toda–Yamamoto test is often reliable on account of its ability to avoid misleading results associated with the asymptotic nature of the standard Granger causality test. Our findings further reveal an instantaneous unidirectional causality from domestic savings to economic growth for only Benin, Mali, and South Africa suggesting that savings-led growth is rapid for these countries. We conclude based on our findings that the myriad of ‘evidence’ in earlier studies on savings-growth causality should be treated with caution given that methodological differences can produce misleading results with the potential of misdirecting policy.     

Multinational Firms’ Motivations and Foreign Direct Investment Decisions: An Analysis of the Software and IT and Financial Services Sectors in the Irish Context

This article focuses on the way greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in different sectors is influenced by locational characteristics and explores the role of policy in attracting and retaining foreign investment. We contribute to the literature by empirically investigating the investment motivations of multinational companies in the software and information technology (IT) and financial services sectors in Ireland and those locational factors that contribute to the retention of FDI. The methodology used in this research is of a qualitative nature, and an exploratory deductive approach is adopted in order to gain an understanding of firms’ internationalization decisions and motivations. The data demonstrate that companies in the two sectors follow different investment motivations. Firms in the software and IT sector entered Ireland primarily because of the availability of a high‐quality workforce, whereas firms in the financial services sector entered Ireland following the deregulation of markets and the subsequent ease of doing business. The article builds on these findings to develop policy recommendations. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Quantifying the positive effects of sponsor level,length, prominence and relatedness on recall and residual recall rates over time

This study is the first multi-year examination of the relative influence of the four main variables said to influence sponsorship recall. Sponsor recall data were collected from season ticket holders (STHs) of 10 professional sports teams, over periods ranging from 3 to 5 years per team. Across those teams and over that time, 309 sponsor–team relationships were examined, and sponsor recall data from over 117,000 individual STHs were collected. Sponsorship length and level were shown to have the strongest impact on recall, followed by relatedness and prominence. These variables affected both the recall of current sponsors and the decay rates of residual recall following the end of a sponsorship. The average rates of sponsor recall growth and decline have been derived from these data, giving managers a tool by which to benchmark sport sponsorship recall performance.     

Competition,Strategy, Technology and People: The Challenges Facing PR

A recent survey of leading UK PR practitioners has identified a dynamic, swiftly evolving environment for the public relations industry. Heightened competition, wide-ranging new opportunities and threats stemming from the perceived need to internationalize, the desire for more influence in clients' business strategy formulation, training and recruitment dilemmas, ever-changing technology and an increasing requirement to evaluate the worth of PR are only some of the most pressing issues. This article reviews the survey's findings—revealing a complex and swiftly evolving marketplace—before drawing out some of the principal implications. There are interesting parallels with events in advertising.