How to Green the red Dragon: A Start‐ups' Little Helper for Sustainable Development in China

This article qualitatively identifies and explains the barriers that foreign cleantech start‐ups can encounter when attempting to enter the Chinese market, as well as the possible strategies that can help overcome these barriers. We base our analysis on interviews with Chinese and foreign entrepreneurs and facilitators. To structure the analysis of such barriers, we use the components of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. We then explain the barriers using institutional theory. We demonstrate that they are caused either by the regulations in China or by the difference between Chinese and Western logics. We further recommend that cleantech entrepreneurs come prepared to China, remain flexible, associate themselves with reputable partners and take advice from those familiar with business in China. Cultural–cognitive barriers might be overcome by integrating the communities of foreign and Chinese start‐ups. Regulative barriers can be removed by the Chinese Government, but this conflicts with the logic of state control. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Evaluating DSGE model forecasts of comovements

This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and unconditional density forecasts, in addition to checks for root-mean-squared errors and event probabilities associated with these forecasts. The checks are implemented on a three-equation DSGE model as well as the Smets and Wouters (2007) model using real-time data. We find that the additional features incorporated into the Smets–Wouters model do not lead to a uniform improvement in the quality of density forecasts and prediction of comovements of output, inflation, and interest rates.     

Optimal Tariffs and Subsidies and Changes in Market Structure

The paper presents a unified treatment of optimal trade policy for a small country. The well‐known results for duopoly and competitive markets emerge as benchmark cases of the authors’ model. In addition, it is shown that changes in market structure have nonmonotonic effects on optimal tariffs. The results suggest that the recent reduction of tariffs in eastern Europe is consistent with welfare‐maximizing trade policy in response to the substantial changes in the market structure of these countries.     

Estimating the intergenerational persistence of lifetime earnings with life course matching: Evidence from the PSID

Why do estimates of the intergenerational persistence in earnings vary so much for the United States? Recent research suggests that lifecycle bias may be a major factor [Grawe, N., Lifecycle bias in estimates of intergenerational earnings persistence. Labour Economics 2006, 13:551–570; Haider, S., and Solon, G., Life-cycle variation in the association between current and lifetime earnings. American Economic Review 2006, 96(4):1308–1320.]. In this paper we estimate the intergenerational correlation in lifetime earnings by using sons' and fathers' earnings at similar ages in order to account for lifecycle bias. Our estimate based on earnings measured at 35–44 for both fathers and sons is similar to that for the age range 45–54.     

An empirical analysis of international labour migration in the Philippines

This study empirically investigates the impact of economic, demographic, and political factors on the size of emigration from the Philippines. In 2007, overseas workers from the Philippines sent remittances in excess of US$14 billion annually to their families back home. Although these remittances are an important source of foreign exchange and play an important role in economic development, the determinants of emigration in the Philippines are not well established. A simple unrestricted error correction model of migration was specified and estimated using data spanning the period 1975–2005. Results indicate that the level of unemployment, adult literacy and population density are the key determinants of emigration in the Philippines. The result also indicates that government instability impacts negatively on emigration in the Philippines. The policy implications of the results are discussed.     

Improving the performance of random coefficients demand models: The role of optimal instruments

We shed new light on the performance of Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes’ (1995) GMM estimator of the aggregate random coefficient logit model. Based on an extensive Monte Carlo study, we show that the use of Chamberlain’s (1987) optimal instruments overcomes many problems that have recently been documented with standard, non-optimal instruments. Optimal instruments reduce small sample bias, but they prove even more powerful in increasing the estimator’s efficiency and stability. We consider a wide variety of data-generating processes and an empirical application to the automobile market. We also consider the gains of other recent methodological advances when combined with optimal instruments.     

International tax arbitrage, tax evasion and interest parity conditions

Using a finite-horizon general equilibrium model with uncertainty and money, we characterize situations where tax arbitrage opportunities may arise for international portfolio investors in an economy with heterogeneous capital income taxation when there is some scope to evade taxes on foreign capital income. We derive tax-modified uncovered interest parity conditions and forward rates similar to the no-tax ones, but augmented by tax-induced “risk-premium” terms; covered interest parity conditions remain unaffected by the introduction of capital income taxes, a consequence of our approach of bounding tax-based arbitrage without restricting arbitrage per se.