Simple Procedures for Testing Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models

This paper develops several simple separate (or non-nested) procedures for testing autoregressive versus moving average errors in regression models. These asymptotically valid tests are straightforward to calculate: after estimating both models by maximum likelihood methods, the procedure involves testing the significance of variables added to a linearized version of the null model, the added variables being the predictions, or the residuals from the specified alternative model, or the difference of the predictions of the two models. Some small sample evidence on the properties of the tests is presented, as is an empirical application on the Australian unexpected inflation rate series.
JEL Classification Numbers: C12, C22, C52, E31.     

Why do trade costs vary?

As tariffs have fallen, it is apparent that trade costs are a significant obstacle to international trade and that they vary from country to country. The gap between the cif and fob value of a trade flow is a useful measure of aggregate trade costs, but only if the measure is based on a consistent volume of trade; mirror statistics are unsuitable. Using high quality Australian import data disaggregated at the HS 6-digit level, we find large country-by-country variations in trade costs. Distance, weight and size account for part of the variation in trade costs. Indicators of institutional quality pick up some of the variation in trade costs, but the relationship is not uniform across mode of transport and commodities; exporting countries’ institutional quality is more strongly related to trade costs for air freight than sea freight, and the relationship is commodity-specific and strongest for manufactured goods. Country-specific characteristics influencing trade costs provide a link between institutions and economic development.     

Germany: ‘élite precaution’ alongside continued public opposition

Germany is the EU member state with the most difficult situation (besides Austria) for marketing genetically modified (GM) crops and food. At the same time, it shows the least administrative effort to respond to the reasons for this situation – public suspicion and protest. Regulators advocate specific precaution-related measures, including marketstage monitoring; these measures, however, do not relate to the primary demands of critics and opponents. The administration’s claim to prioritize scientific evidence over politics constructs the administration and the public as two separate worlds without real mediation. This conflicts with the ever-growing demands for public participation. Participation in a broader sense, however, is not dependent on formal opportunities. In this conflict, NGOs bring up issues of democracy, transparency and precaution through public mobilization. This strategy results in an anticipated consumer boycott and thereby a commercial blockage of GM products. These dynamics can be analysed as ‘reflexive modernization’, which implies greater public aversion to externally imposed risks. The politico-administrative system responds with a legalistic–scientistic approach in order to increase safety but without participatory measures to overcome predictive uncertainty and value conflicts. Environmental and consumer protest has led the technology providers to revise their political strategies in the biotechnology conflict. Thus, in Germany reflexive modernization takes place without reflexive politics.     

Technological change and participation in work organization: recent results from a European Community survey

In 1987–8 a large attitudinal survey covering all twelve Member States of the European Community was carried out by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions in Dublin which focused on various aspects of participation by employee representatives in new information technology. This paper presents evidence on one of the central trade union concerns about technological change – that of work organization.

The paper first sets out an explanatory framework which is based on much of the literature, surveys and case-study evidence on the impact of new technology on work and employment. Second, the explanatory factors are used to explain the wide diversity in the levels of participation in work organization across the Community. The paper concludes that there is a significant North/South divide, with the northern EC Member States, particularly Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium having much higher levels of participation in work organization than their Mediterranean partners.     

Direct and representative participation in Europe: recent survey evidence

Despite the wealth of literature on HRM and employee involvement, now there has been a remarkable lack of large-scale survey evidence on the diffusion employee involvement in work organizations in Europe. This gap in large-scale survey evidence on the diffusion of direct employee participation has now been filled representative sample of workplaces in ten major European Union countries which commissioned by the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions in Dublin (the EPOC project). It is by far the most comprehensive overview of the implementation and effects of direct employee participation of its kind. The paper shows that, on the basis of the EPOC survey results, there appears to considerable gap between the rhetoric and reality of direct participation. The paper shows that while the incidence of different forms of direct participation was widespread ten countries, the scope, in terms of number of issues involved and the number of given to employees, was relatively limited for most direct participation forms. The survey also showed that the introduction of direct participation posed little threat to trade representatives. Indeed, works councils and union representatives were in most 'agents of change' rather than barriers to the development of the more intensive practice of direct participation.     

Women, Power and Trade Union Government in the UK

This paper addresses the under-explored relationship between women's structures and union democracy and argues that women's structural progress is mediated by an enduring gendered oligarchy and an associated struggle to access power resources. It provides, first, an analysis over time of women's structures in UK unions, and second, a case-study analysis of the Manufacturing, Science and Finance (MSF) trade union. The analysis over time demonstrates women's progress in achieving positional power, but conceals the complexity of the way different resources are used to constrain and enable women trade unionists.     

Monitoring and Controlling Mastitis on Ontario Dairy Farms

The frequency of use and the marginal costs and marginal value products of mastitis control practices on somatic cell count (SCC) and milk yield are investigated. A survey of current management practices is combined with Dairy Herd Improvement production information to determine the relationships between milk yield, SCC, management practices, and production and producer characteristics under field conditions. The relationships are modeled and compared at the cow and herd level. A moment-generating approach is used in the herd model to determine which, if any, practices are risk reducing. The SCC for an individual cow is a better indicator of milk production lost due to mastitis than is a bulk tank SCC. Most recommended mastitis control practices are estimated to be economically beneficial, but some common practices are found not to be economical, and questions are raised about dry cow treatment. On a examiné la fréquence à laquelle on recourt aux pratiques de lutte contre la mammite, de même que les couts et les avantages marginaux de ces dernières en ce qui concerne la numération des cellues somatiques et le rendement laitier. On a combiné une enquête sur les pratiques zootechniques actuelles aux renseignements sur la production extraits du Programme d'amélioration des troupeaux laitiers en vue de déterminer les relations qui existent entre le rendement laitier, la numération des cellules somatiques, la conduite du troupeau ainsi que les caractéristiques associées à la production et aux producteurs, sur le terrain. On a ensuite modélisé ces relations et on les a compareées entre les animaux et les troupeaux. Pour le modèle touchant les troupeaux, on s'est servi d'une approche générant des moments, pour déterminer si une pratique quelconque diminuait les risques. La numération des cellules somatiques chez la vache est un meilleur indicateur du volume de lait perdu à la suite de la mammite que la numération des cellules somatiques dans la citerne. La plupart des méthodes de lutte contre la mammite recommendées offrent un avantage économique, mais certaines pratiques courantes ont l'effet contraire et on s'interroge sur l'utilité de traiter les vaches taries.     

Supply response of U.K. milk producers

Short‐run own‐price response elasticities are estimated from two samples of panel data for specialist dairy farms in the Northwest and Southwest of England. Although these farms are subject to milk marketing quotas, the free tradability of quotas enables them individually to adjust the output quite rapidly. Model specifications have been chosen to test the ability of panel data to directly reveal behavioral responses without the imposition of theoretical restrictions. Significantly, the two independent samples generate quite similar results, especially in terms of supply response measures. Stable and promising estimates are obtained with simultaneous models giving higher elasticities than single equation models.     

THE ECONOMICS OF VOLUNTARY EXPORT RESTRAINT AGREEMENTS

Abstract. The three substantive sections of this survey deal with the economic consequences of voluntary export restraint agreements (VERs), e.g. the Multi-Fibre Arrangement and VERs on Japanese auto exports. Section 2 focuses on the disposition of quota rents under the assumptions of perfectly competitive markets and the absence of substitute suppliers. Section 3 considers imperfect competition and the role of VERs as cartelization instruments, facilitating collusion. Section 4 analyzes the discriminatory effects of VERs when there are third country suppliers. A broad conclusion is that the economic consequences of VERs are more complex than the standard trade policy analysis based on tariffs because of the issues discussed in Sections 3 and 4.