Self‐help in housing and chengzhongcun in China's urbanization

This article focuses on the housing issues of rural migrants arising from urbanization, with particular reference to chengzhongcun, a topic with considerable impact on policymaking. An attempt is made to understand the underlying rationale of self‐help in housing and the important role of chengzhongcun in sheltering rural migrants in the context of China's rural‐urban dichotomy. As demonstrated in this study, chengzhongcun accommodate, with little in the way of government resources and assistance, millions of rural migrants because of their social accessibility and affordability. While not denying their social problems, we argue that chengzhongcun in fact act as an innovative and positive agent to promote urbanization in present day China by housing massive numbers of rural migrants and assimilating them into cities. Current government policies towards chengzhongcun have generated a wide range of interest conflicts and confrontations. The consequences of such conflicts show that the government policies were problematic and unworkable, as they violated basic market principles as well as citizen rights. Policy strategy towards the redevelopment of chengzhongcun must acknowledge their credibility in the Chinese road to urbanization and requires more thoughtful and prudent consideration of migrants' demands for affordable housing.     

Regulation Fair Disclosure and Earnings Information: Market, Analyst, and Corporate Responses

With the adoption of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), market behavior around earnings releases displays no significant change in return volatility (after controlling for decimalization of stock trading) but significant increases in trading volume due to difference in opinion. Analyst forecast dispersion increases, and increases in other measures of disagreement and difference of opinion suggest greater difficulty in forming forecasts beyond the current quarter. Corporations increase the quantity of voluntary disclosures, but only for current quarter earnings. Thus, Reg FD seems to increase the quantity of information available to the public while imposing greater demands on investment professionals.     

The Impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure on Information Asymmetry and Trading: An Intraday Analysis

This study examines the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (FD) on liquidity, information asymmetry, and institutional and retail investors trading behavior. Our main findings suggest three conclusions. First, Regulation FD has been effective in improving liquidity and in decreasing the level of information asymmetry. Second, retail trading activity increases dramatically after earnings announcements but there is a significant decline in institutional trading surrounding earnings announcements, particularly in the pre‐announcement period. Last, the decline in information asymmetry around earnings announcements is closely associated with a lower participation rate in the pre‐announcement period and more active trading of retail investors after earnings releases.     

The economic law of population distribution and migration

"The economic law of population distribution and migration has been studied chiefly based on the Chinese situation. The distribution and development of productive forces decide the distribution and migration of population, and in turn, the latter influences the former. The population distributions in three different stages of social development, namely agricultural, industrial and information society, are described. A new concept in population economics is introduced, i.e. population economic density, which is different from the concept of population density. The formula of population economic density is P(population)/R(resources). Many kinds of migration are analysed, and it is believed that the main efficient cause of migration is economy."     

Zur Entscheidung y>y0 aufgrund der Messung einer korrelierten Variablen

Zusammenfassung Es wird eine optimale Strategie im Sinne des minimalen erwarteten Verlustes für die beiden Entscheidungeny>y _o undyy _o aufgrund der Messungen einer mitY positiv korrelierten, einfacher und/oder billiger zugänglichen ZufallsvariablenX abgeleitet. Dabei wird angenommen, daßX undY nach einer bivariaten Normalverteilung mit bekannten Parametern verteilt sind und die Entscheidungyy _o getroffen wird, wennx größer ist als ein zu bestimmendesx _o, und die Entscheidungy>y _o, wennx gleich oder kleiner als diesesx _o ist. Für die Bestimmung des optimalenx _o werden zunächst die Kosten für die beiden Fehlentscheidungen jeweils als konstant vorausgesetzt, in einem weiteren Ansatz wird jedoch für die Mißklassifikationyy _o eine mity exponentiell wachsende Risikofunktion angenommen. Um die relative Häufigkeit der zu erwartenden Fehlklassifikationen abschätzen zu können, wird schließlich die bedingte WahrscheinlichkeitP(x>x _o,y) errechnet.

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Summary An optimal strategy, with minimum expected risk, for the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o is constructed on the basis of the measurement of a variableX, which is positively correlated withY and can be measured more easily and/or with smaller expense. A bivariate normal distribution with known parameters is assumed forX andY. For the observationsx a limitx _o is aimed at, so that the decisionsy>y _o oryy _o are taken ifx>x orxx _o respectively. Optimal values ofx _o are first calculated under the assumption of constant losses for the two misclassifications (x>x _o ifyy _o andxx _o ify>y _o). In a further approach the loss for a wrong decisionyy _o is assumed to increase exponentially withy. Finally the conditional probabilityP (x>x _o\y) is calculated to get an assessment of the relative frequencies of wrong decisions to be expected.

     

Chance Constrained Programming Formulations for Stochastic Characterizations of Efficiency and Dominance in DEA

Pareto-Koopmans efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is extended to stochastic inputs and outputs via probabilistic input-output vector comparisons in a given empirical production (possibility) set. In contrast to other approaches which have used Chance Constrained Programming formulations in DEA, the emphasis here is on joint chance constraints. An assumption of arbitrary but known probability distributions leads to the P-Model of chance constrained programming. A necessary condition for a DMU to be stochastically efficient and a sufficient condition for a DMU to be non-stochastically efficient are provided. Deterministic equivalents using the zero order decision rules of chance constrained programming and multivariate normal distributions take the form of an extended version of the additive model of DEA. Contacts are also maintained with all of the other presently available deterministic DEA models in the form of easily identified extensions which can be used to formalize the treatment of efficiency when stochastic elements are present.     

Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models

We propose using the price range in the estimation of stochastic volatility models. We show theoretically, numerically, and empirically that range-based volatility proxies are not only highly efficient, but also approximately Gaussian and robust to microstructure noise. Hence range-based Gaussian quasi-maximum likelihood estimation produces highly efficient estimates of stochastic volatility models and extractions of latent volatility. We use our method to examine the dynamics of daily exchange rate volatility and find the evidence points strongly toward two-factor models with one highly persistent factor and one quickly mean-reverting factor.     

Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns

There is substantial evidence of short‐term stock price continuation, which the prior literature often attributes to investor behavioral biases such as underreaction to new information. This paper investigates the role of information uncertainty in price continuation anomalies and cross‐sectional variations in stock returns. If short‐term price continuation is due to investor behavioral biases, we should observe greater price drift when there is greater information uncertainty. As a result, greater information uncertainty should produce relatively higher expected returns following good news and relatively lower expected returns following bad news. My evidence supports this hypothesis.     

Energy and CO2 emission relationships in the NAFTA trading bloc: a multi-regional multi-factor energy input–output approach

The North-America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has brought together the economies of Canada, Mexico, and the US into forming one of the largest trading blocs worldwide (within the top CO₂ emitters). However, the current global protectionist discourse threatens the agreement. This paper analyzes the energy and energy-related CO₂ emission relationships between NAFTA countries in 2014 to gain insights into the climate change implications of current integration and the possible cancelation of the agreement. The analysis is performed with a multi-regional version of the multi-factor energy input–output model. The results show that NAFTA has not built a single integrated energy system, though it has helped reduce energy-related CO₂ emissions. Moreover, if NAFTA is not revoked, further integration would depend on the capacity of the Mexican energy sector to converge to the performance of its trade partners’ energy sectors. Conversely, a broken deal would induce negative environmental externalities.     

House price dynamics: Evidence from Beijing

To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.