ARBITRAGE BOUNDS FOR PRICES OF WEIGHTED VARIANCE SWAPS

We develop a theory of robust pricing and hedging of a weighted variance swap given market prices for a finite number of co‐maturing put options. We assume the put option prices do not admit arbitrage and deduce no‐arbitrage bounds on the weighted variance swap along with super‐ and sub‐replicating strategies that enforce them. We find that market quotes for variance swaps are surprisingly close to the model‐free lower bounds we determine. We solve the problem by transforming it into an analogous question for a European option with a convex payoff. The lower bound becomes a problem in semi‐infinite linear programming which we solve in detail. The upper bound is explicit. We work in a model‐independent and probability‐free setup. In particular, we use and extend Föllmer's pathwise stochastic calculus. Appropriate notions of arbitrage and admissibility are introduced. This allows us to establish the usual hedging relation between the variance swap and the “log contract” and similar connections for weighted variance swaps. Our results take the form of a FTAP: we show that the absence of (weak) arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a classical model which reproduces the observed prices via risk‐neutral expectations of discounted payoffs.     

Food choice models and their relation with food preferences and eating frequency in the Polish population: POFPRES study

A sample of 9339 subjects aged 13–75, living in the six macro-regions of Poland rated the preferences of 140 various food products, eating frequency and factors influencing food choice. Four groups of consumers were found: “consumers susceptible to advertising and seeking novel healthy products” (33.2% of the sample), “consumers not taking care of their health” (25.4%), “consumers not susceptible to advertising and taking care of their health” (32.5%), and “consumers insensitive to sensory attributes of fruit and vegetables” (9.0%). Among factors influencing the food choice, sensory and functional factors were significant, and health and price – moderate. Advertising was generally denied as an important factor in food choice. The food choice motives were highly dependent on age and gender, and to a lower extent – on region of residence, size of place of residence, economic condition and education level. Women/girls more often showed pro-health behaviours in food choice, choice motives, preferences and food intake.     

THE 2007–2008 U.S. RECESSION: WHAT DID THE REAL‐TIME GOOGLE TRENDS DATA TELL THE UNITED STATES?

In the extant literature of business cycle predictions, the signals for business cycle turning points are generally issued with a lag of at least 5 months. In this paper, we make use of a novel and timely indicator—the Google search volume data—to help to improve the timeliness of business cycle turning point identification. We identify multiple query terms to capture the real‐time public concern on the aggregate economy, the credit market, and the labor market condition. We incorporate the query indices in a Markov‐switching framework and successfully “nowcast” the peak date within a month that the turning occurred. (JEL E37, G17)     

External and Internal Factors Motivating Outsourcing of Business Services by Meeting-Industry Companies: A Case Study in Krakow,Poland

The aim of this article is to evaluate the external and internal factors motivating the selection of business services to be outsourced by key meeting-industry (business tourism) players, with a particular focus on knowledge-intensive business services. The case-study method was adopted in the article to analyze the motivation behind outsourcing of knowledge-intensive business services by meeting venues and event companies in Krakow (Poland). The results confirm that event companies tend to subcontract out core services connected with the organization, promotion and/or management of events, event services, and technical support for events.     

Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?

Since the onset of the financial crisis significant interest rate spreads have arisen between euro area countries, both for public and private debt. We check whether these spreads could be made to work towards the goal of providing more stability to the euro area. In particular, we focus on reducing the imbalances that arose between the core and peripheral members of the euro area in the first decade of its existence. The idea is that stable positive spreads in peripheral countries could have decreased domestic demand, preventing the boom–bust cycles that plagued these economies. They could also prevent such developments in the future. We construct a panel model for euro area countries and estimate the relationship between real interest rates and the current account balance. Next, we use the estimated parameters to perform simulations. We find that spreads on real interest rates of 0.6–5.5 percentage points would have been necessary to stabilize external positions of the four peripheral euro area member countries.     

The Use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in Tourist Information and Promotion of the Polish Carpathians in Foreign Tourism Markets

The recent years have been a time of rapid development of information and communication technologies (ICTs) in tourism. The objective of this article is to analyse and assess the use of ICTs in tourist information and promotion of selected municipalities in the Polish Carpathians, the largest region of mountain tourism in Poland. Particular attention was paid to the activities taken by DMOs, local entrepreneurs and cultural institutions. The use of ICTs in the Polish Carpathians is at a relatively advanced level, but still not sufficient enough to make these solutions a fully effective tool in building a strong regional brand in the international tourism markets.     

Bayesian averaging of classical estimates in forecasting macroeconomic indicators with application of business survey data

In this paper, we develop a methodology for forecasting key macroeconomic indicators, based on business survey data. We estimate a large set of models, using an autoregressive specification, with regressors selected from business and household survey data. Our methodology is based on the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates method. Additionally, we examine the impact of deterministic and stochastic seasonality of the business survey time series on the outcome of the forecasting process. We propose an intuitive procedure for incorporating both types of seasonality into the forecasting process. After estimating the specified models, we check the accuracy of the forecasts.     

Money is Power: Monetary Intelligence—Love of Money and Temptation of Materialism Among Czech University Students

In this study, we develop a theoretical model of monetary intelligence (MI), explore the extent to which individuals’ meaning of money is related to the pursuit of materialistic purposes, and test our model using the whole sample and across college major and gender. We select the 15-item love of money (LOM) construct—Factors Good, Evil (Affective), Budget (Behavioral), Achievement, and Power (Cognitive)—from the Money Ethic Scale and Factors Success and Centrality and two indicators—from the Materialism Scale. Based on our data collected from 330 university students in Czech Republic, we provide the following findings. First, our formative models are superior to our reflective models. Second, for the reflective model, money represents Power, Good, Achievement, and not Evil, in the context of materialism. Our formative model suggests that those who pursuit materialism cherish Achievement (vanity) but Budget their money poorly. Third, multi-group analyses illustrate that humanities students (62.4 % female) consider money as Evil and Budget their money poorly, while those in natural sciences (37.6 % female) do not. Further, men are obsessed with Achievement, whereas women do not Budget their money properly, suggesting reflective temptation for males and impulsive temptation for females. Our novel discoveries shed new lights on the relationships between LOM and materialism and offer practical implications to the field of consumer behavior and business ethics.