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51.
James Tobin 《De Economist》1990,138(1):1-14
Summary Jan Tinbergen originated the theory of policy in the 1950s. Here I apply it to contemporary macroeconomics. The two standard instruments of short-run demand management cannot achieve the two usual targets, full employment and price stability. With respect to those goals, these two instruments are collinear, except for small and transient effects on foreign exchange rates. But the mix of fiscal and monetary policies, relative to one another, does have important effects on the composition of national output, as between investment and consumption.I point out that policy-makers, like portfolio managers, should diversify the instruments they use when they are uncertain of their effects. I discuss some pitfalls in the empirical estimation of policy effects, especially possible misinterpretations of simple correlations, and I note that policy rules cannot be invariant to changes in macroeconomic structure. I argue that policy rules should involve responses to new information and in practice allow discretion. Finally, I suggest that Tinbergen's theory of policy needs to be extended to policy coordination among nations.Third Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 20, 1989, in Utrecht for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association. 相似文献
52.
Recent theoretical developments have incorporated endogenous multinational firms into the general–equilibrium model of trade. One simple taxonomy separates the theory into "vertical" models, in which firms geographically separate activities by stages of production, and "horizontal" models, in which multiplant firms duplicate roughly the same activities in many countries. The authors nest a horizontal and a vertical model within a hybrid (unrestricted) "knowledge–capital model" and estimate the specifications with data on US foreign direct investment activity. In the nested econometric tests, the data sample cannot distinguish statistically between the unrestricted model and the restricted horizontal model, indicating that the latter captures virtually all of the determinants of FDI. The tests overwhelmingly reject the vertical model. 相似文献
53.
The Productivity of US States since 1880 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This study uses state-level variation in labor productivity levels at twenty-year intervals between 1880 and 1980 to examine the relative importance of institutional and geographical influences in explaining observed and persistent differences in standards of living over time and across regions. Focusing on fundamental rather than proximate influences, we find that both institutional characteristics and some physical geography characteristics account for a high proportion of the differences in state productivity levels: states with navigable waterways, a large minerals endowment, and no slaves in 1860, on average, had higher labor productivity levels throughout the sample period. However, we find little support for two other influences that have previously received attention—climate and latitude. 相似文献
54.
国有企业、金融市场改革与养老保险制度改革的互动效应--中国如何解决老年保障问题? 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
中国政府非常清楚社会保障所面临的危机,决定寻求解决办法。拟议中的社会保障改革的核心是积累制和整合条块分割的体系,计划为每个工人建立个人退休账户,对养老基金进行有效投资。然而,这种改革受阻于三个关键因素。(1)在向积累制的转化过程中必须支付特制成本;(2)现有的社会保障体系条块分割、分散化管理3(3)已经积累的基金尚未取得高收益,也未分配到最有效率的用途上。 相似文献
55.
This article presents a macroeconomic model in which government deficits are bond financed and the stock of bonds may affect both expected income and liquidity. If either of these effects exists, then comparative statics analysis requires the government budget to be balanced. Temporary divergences from a balanced budget and changes in the maturity structure of the government debt may be analyzed in terms of changes in the stock of bonds. It is shown that traditional fiscal and monetary policies may have a perverse effect; that to ensure effective policy, deficit financing and open market operations should be avoided; and that only policies involving a balanced budget or the financing of deficits or surpluses through changes in the stock of money should be undertaken. 相似文献
56.
James J. Winebrake Brian P. Creswick 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2003,70(4):359-384
This paper integrates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) with scenario analysis techniques to explore the commercialization of future hydrogen fuel processor technologies. AHP is a multi-attribute decision analysis tool useful for evaluating decisions with multiple criteria and alternatives. In this paper, AHP is extended using a technique called perspective-based scenario analysis (PBSA). In PBSA, scenario analysis is conducted based on potential future decision-maker perspectives that are integrated into the AHP framework. This paper discusses this method and applies it to the evaluation of hydrogen fuel processor technologies 15–20 years hence. The results provide an added layer of insight into the opportunities and barriers for the commercialization of these technologies as well as the methodological opportunities for using AHP and PBSA as a futures tool. 相似文献
57.
James Kirkley Catherine J. Morrison Paul Stephen Cunningham Joseph Catanzano 《Environmental and Resource Economics》2004,29(2):191-217
Overfishing and excess capacity in mostfisheries around the world have generated considerableand increasing concern about their biological and economic performance ramifications. Theseproblems, in part, stem from substantialinvestment in technical improvements to boats andequipment in fishing fleets, which exacerbatesexcess fishing capacity and low returns tofishing effort and investment, given regulatoryand biological constraints. However, little attempt hasbeen made to quantify the extent or effects oftechnical change in fisheries. In this paper, we usedetailed data on innovation patterns for 19vessels in the Sète trawl fleet of southernFrance to evaluate the contributions oftechnical change to catch rates. We find thatembodied technical change enhanced productivity by approximately one percent per year between 1985 and 1999, but that external (disembodied) events counteractedthis trend, causing a net output decline ofabout three percent per year. 相似文献
58.
Whistle-blowing in America business and industry has increased as interest in ethical business behavior and the cost of unethical
behavior have grown. Whistle-blowing plays the important role of helping to fill the gaps in the regulatory system that is
designed to check the abuse of organizational power. However, the practice of whistle-blowing is controversial and whistle-blowers
often pay a high price for their actions. Firms can engage in a number of actions to encourage whistle-blowing. Creating a
climate that encourages employees to report organizational wrong doing and that protects the whistle-blower is critical. To
create such a climate the organization must build trust and cooperation by educating employees in the benefits of ethical
and legal behavior. 相似文献
59.
This paper explores the relationship between household marginal income tax rates, the set of financial assets that households own, and the portfolio shares accounted for by each of these assets. It analyzes data from the 1983, 1989, 1992, 1995, and 1998 Surveys of Consumer Finances and develops a new algorithm for imputing federal marginal tax rates to households in these surveys. The empirical findings suggest that marginal tax rates have important effects on asset allocation decisions. The probability that a household owns tax-advantaged assets, such as tax-exempt bonds or assets held in tax-deferred accounts, is positively related to its tax rate on ordinary income. In addition, the portfolio share invested in corporate stock, which is taxed less heavily than interest bearing assets, is increasing in the household’s ordinary income tax rate. Holdings of heavily taxed assets, such as interest-bearing accounts, decline as a share of wealth as a household’s marginal tax rate increases. 相似文献
60.
James S. Weber 《Economic Theory》2002,20(2):341-355
Summary. This paper presents a general procedure for finding profiles with the minimum number of voters required for many important
paradoxes. Borda's and Condorcet's classic examples are revisited as well as generalizations. Using Saari's procedure line,
we obtain an upper bound for the minimum number of voters needed for a profile for which the Condorcet winner is not strictly
top ranked for all weighted positional procedures. Also we give a simple upper bound on the minimum number of voters needed for a set of prescribed voting outcomes. In contrast to situations wherein small numbers of voters are needed, we consider paradoxes
requiring arbitrarily large numbers of voters as well as large numbers of alternatives. Finally we indicate connections with
statistical rank based tests.
Received: April 18, 2001; revised version: May 25, 2001 相似文献