Exact moments of the sample autocorrelations from series generated by general arima processes of order (p, d, q), d=0 or 1

Formulae for the numerical computation of the first four exact moments of the sample autocorrelations, given a time series realisation from a general autoregressive moving average process of order (p, d, q) with d=0 or 1, are presented. The exact mean and variance of the sample autocorrelations are computed for various sample sizes and several time series models. The evaluated results are compared with those obtained from approximate formulae for the mean and variance of the sample autocorrelations. A specification of the numerical accuracy of the first two exact moments is included.     

Central-city income redistribution and the flight to the suburbs: A stylized model

This paper characterizes the optimal tax policy of a central-city government whose goal is to redistribute income from the rich to the poor to maximize the intertemporal utility of the latter group. Since redistribution erodes the tax base by stimulating suburban flight on the part of the rich, choosing the optimal path for the income tax rate is a problem in optimal control. The nature of the solution to the problem is shown to depend crucially on the level of the discount rate and the time path of exogenous income for the poor.     

Systemtheorie,Shareholder Value-Konzept und Stakeholder-Konzept als theoretisch-konzeptionelle Bezugsrahmen der Balanced Scorecard

Zusammenfassung  Die theoretisch-konzeptionelle Würdigung der Balanced Scorecard steht trotz ihres Siegeszuges in der Praxis noch immer in den Anf?ngen. Der vorliegende Beitrag weist die Systemtheorie, das Shareholder Value-Konzept und das Stakeholder-Konzept als theoretisch-konzeptionelle Bezugsrahmen der Balanced Scorecard aus. Damit werden zugleich Modifikationsm?glichkeiten der Balanced Scorecard angedeutet, die sich aus einer noch konsequenteren Anlehnung an einen der drei Ans?tze ergeben k?nnten. Prof. Dr. Jan K?rnert ist Inhaber des Stiftungslehrstuhls für Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insb. Internationales Finanzmanagement/Kapitalm?rkte Dr. Cornelia Wolf ist Gesch?ftsführerin des Studentenwerkes Greifswald     

Technology assessment network building: The International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions

With the globalization of trade and the increased understanding of transboundary problems such as global climate change, the need for understanding the consequences of technological change has never been higher. Institutional arrangements necessary to assess these changes and make decision makers aware of the consequences have not necessarily adapted to these world conditions. In response to this leading technology assessment and forecasting institutions formed an international association of technology assessment and forecasting institutions to assist in the diffusion of technology assessment in the decision-making process. This paper discusses the origins of the International Association of Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutions (IATAFI) and the goals and vision for the organization. The following articles represent some of the topics discussed at the first IATAFI conference in Bergen, Norway in May 1994.     

On a probabilistic model of forecasting

One of the methods of studying complex objects is the construction of a mathematical model, containing such information about the object that is necessary to solve a definite problem connected with it.Mathematical modeling, based on the construction of models of various kinds can be used in forecasting. Let a forecasting object A(X) be described by vector X = (X₁, X₂,…,X_n) whose coordinates are parameters characterizing this object. The work presents a probabilistic model of forecasting and gives the example of a forecast of the object described by a set two parameters.