Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners

It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade more intensively with one another. However, nations face shocks to both the cyclical and trend components of their GDP series. Contrary to the result for cyclical fluctuations, we find comovement of shocks to the trend component of real GDP is weaker among countries that trade more intensively with one another. We simulate changes in ten-year output growth correlations corresponding to the estimated effects of trade and show that the impact of trade on trend comovement is quantitatively more important than its effect on cyclical comovement.     

Policy implications

Abstract: In the European Union, the framework of financial services legislation at EU level has been aimed primarily at forming a single market for banks, insurers and other financial services firms. Substantial progress has been made towards this objective. Also, the EU initiatives have stimulated a reappraisal of national regulatory systems. Most of this EU legislation (with the exception of the consumer credit directives) has not had consumer protection as one of its main aims, although it has been assumed that consumers will eventually benefit from a wide choice of financial services providers and from price competition. However, partly in response to consumer pressure, the European Commission is developing a set of initiatives more closely geared to protecting consumers’ interests. Within the context of the EU’s approach, there remain considerable variations in the approach to protecting consumers’ interests in different member states as a result of legal and cultural differences.     

Who Uses Facts Up Front? A Baseline Examination of Who is Using Standardized Front‐of‐Package Nutrition Disclosures

The Facts Up Front front‐of‐package (FOP) nutrition system is currently displayed on packaged foods in the United States. This initiative is being implemented by more than 50 manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers in the United States on their branded and private‐label packaged food products. The in‐store presence of Facts Up Front is supported by a recently launched consumer education campaign. This study employs a sample of 1,400 female primary household shoppers with children, with oversamples of Hispanic and African American ethnic subgroups, to examine initial awareness and evaluations of Facts Up Front. Results show that Hispanics are more aware of and engaged with Facts Up Front than Caucasians. African Americans report higher levels of engagement and understanding of Facts Up Front vs. Caucasians. Importantly, Hispanic and African American mothers also report using this FOP system to make decisions. Based on these findings, important implications are offered for consumer welfare and public policy.     

How do successful scholars get their best research ideas? An exploration

We interview 24 marketing professors to ask how they got the ideas for 64 of their papers. More than three-quarters of the papers were inspired by holes in the literature, by a “stylized fact” that the current literature cannot explain, or by an interaction with a manager. The rest fall into several smaller categories that to a large extent can be seen as special cases of the three big ones. We describe how papers from each of the three big categories help move the literature forward. We also illustrate the range of situations contained in each category by way of several examples. Among the authors we interview, most do not use a single source. As these authors become more senior, managerial contacts play an increasing role, while the balance between literature and stylized facts appears to be unchanged.

     

The power of positivity? The influence of positive psychological capital language on crowdfunding performance

We extend the entrepreneurship literature to include positive psychological capital — an individual or organization's level of psychological resources consisting of hope, optimism, resilience, and confidence — as a salient signal in crowdfunding. We draw from the costless signaling literature to argue that positive psychological capital language usage enhances crowdfunding performance. We examine 1726 crowdfunding campaigns from Kickstarter, finding that entrepreneurs conveying positive psychological capital experience superior fundraising performance. Human capital moderates this relationship while social capital does not, suggesting that costly signals may, at times, enhance the influence of costless signals. Post hoc analyses suggest findings generalize across crowdfunding types, but not to IPOs.     

Sustainability： Corporate Responsibility for the Future Classroom

The machinery, equipment, inventory, and other assets of the 21 st century company without people to work them. Corporations, by leave of the accounting profession, have no real economic value continue to omit the value of human. And yet, there is a growing realization that people represent the largest proportion of corporate productive capacity relative to the current assets and fixed assets shown in corporate financial statements. This paper provides research on the top 50 of the Fortune 500 companies which confirm this material deficiency. There is a need to provide stakeholders with a ＂fair＂ knowledge of the value of corporate human capital to provide a higher standard of transparency and accountability in international financial reporting and to provide the basis for research into the sustainability and potential expansion of growth in the world economy. An appropriate standard for the valuation of human capital will provide the knowledge base for effective and efficient investment in human capital. Effective and efficient investment will be particularly valuable for governments and service industries and for those who wish to promote growth in Europe. Indeed, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development （OECD） is questioning the veracity of financial statements which fail to include ＂the most valuable＂ of corporate assets in their financial statements. Recently, the OECD has noted that human capital may be measurable ＂by the output potential of specific competencies＂; ＂the fruits of （corporate） investment＂; the objective measurement of the market ＂rental＂ price of human capital; and lastly, perhaps self-evident when it comes to physical capital, the output potential of corporate investment in their human capital inventory. This paper considers the conditions in the context of literature which reassesses theory and assumptions which have been made on the valuation of human capital. Human capital is a pre-requisite for tangible assets to be productive. The valuation of human capital will trigger the same sort of activity-based analysis of people power as computers brought to cost accounting. The knowledge century analysis of people power will take off when human capital is at last included in the list of assets on the corporate balance sheet.     

Popper and classical liberalism

Popper was not part of the revival of classical liberalism, but many of his ideas have implications for classical liberals. His arguments about the significance of markets as learning mechanisms, about the character of knowledge, about the evaluation of theories in the 'public sphere' and his critique of 'justificationism' are of particular importance.