Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. This work is partially sponsored by the Office of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Department of Energy, USA, and was presented at the International Atlantic Economic Conference, Athens, Greece, March 2001.     

Co-ordinated environmental regulation: controlling non-point nitrate pollution while maintaining river flows

Environmental policy often addresses multiple targets, yet much economic analysis of pollution control is based on a single-target objective. In this paper, we present an analysis of policies to control non-point source nitrate pollution in the presence of minimum river flow restrictions. A non-linear bio-physical economic optimisation model of an intensively cultivated Scottish agricultural catchment was constructed. The presence of minimum river flow controls in the catchment was found to reduce nitrogen pollution. However, by themselves, river flow controls were found not to be a cost effective means to reduce non-point pollution. We quantify the improved social welfare from coordinating the environmental regulation of river flows and pollution, and determine the conditions under which such coordination is beneficial. The paper also investigates whether the benefits of such coordination can be sustained under wetter (winter) weather conditions implied by current climate change predictions.     

The Willingness to Accept Value of Statistical Life Relative to the Willingness to Pay Value: Evidence and Policy Implications

Large disparities between willingness to accept (WTA) and willingness to pay (WTP) based values of statistical life are commonly encountered in empirical studies. Standard economic theory suggests that if a public good is easily substitutable there should be no marked disparity between WTA and WTP values for the good, though the disparity increases with reduced substitutability. However, psychologists have shown that people often treat gains and losses asymmetrically and tend to require a substantially larger increase in wealth to compensate for a loss than the amount they would be willing to pay for an equivalent gain. Although most transport projects may aim to improve safety, situations arise when a relaxation of an existing regulation saves resources but increases the risk of death and injuries. A survey was recently carried out in New Zealand to determine people’s willingness to pay to reduce road risks and their willingness to accept compensation for an increase in risk. This paper reports the disparity observed between the two measures and considers some of the problems posed for policymakers.     

Hirschman's loyalty: Attitude or behavior?

Over the past two decades there has been much controversy over what Hirschman intended by the term loyalty in his bookExit, Voice, and Loyalty. Some have interpreted Hirschman's loyalty as an attitude that deters exit and promotes voice. Others have interpreted Hirschman's loyalty as a distinct behavior, like exit and voice, that results from dissatisfaction. This article examines both views of loyalty simultaneously. First, comprehensive and reliable scales to measure the behavioral responses to dissatisfaction are developed. Second, the relationship between loyalty and the behavioral responses to dissatisfaction are examined. Results of this research indicate that both interpretations are important and together help us better understand how employees behave when they are dissatisfied.     

Short selling in initial public offerings

Short sale constraints in the aftermarket of initial public offerings (IPOs) are often used to explain short-term underpricing that is subsequently reversed. This paper shows that short selling is integral to aftermarket trading and is higher in IPOs with greater underpricing. Perceived restrictions on borrowing shares are not systematically circumvented by “naked” short selling. Short sellers, on average, do not appear to earn abnormal profits in the near term and our findings are not driven by market makers. Short selling in IPOs is not as constrained as suggested by the literature, implying that other factors may be responsible for underpricing.     

The Economics of Forest Land Use in Temperate and Tropical Areas

This paper presents economic rules for harvest timing when timber and nontimber goods, services, and ecological functions are produced from forest stands. Forests include stands that are heterogeneous in age, land quality, and distance to market. Rules for allocating land between forest and nonforest use are developed. Key land use margins are identified that are important to land use allocation in temperate and tropical regions (e.g., between unmanaged forest, forest management, and forest conversion). Processes that can change key land use margins are discussed and used to organize recent empirical and theoretical studies of regions where forest land use is in transition, such as where forest land is being converted to alternative nonforest land uses.     

R&;D and Exporting: A Comparison of British and Irish Firms

This paper investigates the two-way relationship between R&D and export activity. In particular, we concern ourselves with the question whether R&D stimulates exports and, perhaps more importantly, whether export activity leads to increasing innovative activity in terms of R&D (learning-by-exporting). We use two unique firm level databases for Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland and compare the results for these two countries. We find that previous exporting experience enhances the innovative capability of Irish firms. Conversely, no strong learning-by-exporting effects are found for British firms. Arguably part of the differences between Ireland and Britain are attributable to different, cross-country exporting patterns where Irish firms have a greater interface with OECD markets. JEL no.  F14, F23     

Community economic development in a context of globalization and metropolization: a comparison of four North American cities

In this article, we highlight the links, few as they are, between metropolitan development institutions and community economic development (CED) organizations in a context of global economy where urban agglomerations compete for investments, while some groups of people are marginalized and some neighbourhoods are declining. First, we begin with a theoretical consideration of globalization, metropolization and community economic development. Second, we examine the relation between institutions responsible for metropolitan development and CED organizations in two Canadian agglomerations, Toronto and Montreal, and two American ones, Boston and Pittsburgh. Third, we suggest some explanations for the weak linkages between CED organizations and metropolitan institutions by raising questions about the identity, the resources and the political aspect of CED organizations, and about the vision of metropolitan actors. L'article met en avant les liens, aussi rares soient‐ils, entre institutions d'aménagement métropolitain et organisations de développement économique communautaire (DEC) dans le contexte d'une économie mondialisée où les agglomérations urbaines rivalisent dans leur quête d'investissements, tandis que certains groupes sont marginalisés et des quartiers déclinent. Ce travail commence par une étude théorique de la mondialisation, de la métropolisation et du développement économique communautaire. Il examine ensuite la relation entre institutions chargées de l'aménagement métropolitain et organisations de DEC dans deux agglomérations canadiennes, Toronto et Montréal, et américaines, Boston et Pittsburgh. Enfin, il tente d'expliquer les liens ténus entre les deux types d'organismes au travers de plusieurs questions sur l'identité, les ressources et l'aspect politique des organisations de CED, ainsi que sur la vision des acteurs métropolitains.