A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Interactive data and retail investor decision‐making: an experimental study

The results of an experimental study of retail investors' use of eXtensible Business Reporting Language tagged (interactive) data and PDF format for making investment decisions are reported. The main finding is that data format made no difference to participants' ability to locate and integrate information from statement footnotes to improve investment decisions. Interactive data were perceived by participants as quick and ‘accurate’, but it failed to facilitate the identification of the adjustment needed to make the ratios accurate for comparison. An important implication is that regulators and software designers should work to reduce user reliance on the comparability of ratios generated automatically using interactive data.     

Regional Comparisons,Spatial Aggregation,and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present. Asymmetric pass-through was found across all regions, with faster pass-through when prices are rising. Pass-through patterns, in terms of speed and time for completion, were found to vary from region to region. Spatial aggregation was investigated at the national level and the East Coast with the aggregated cumulative pass-through being greater than the volume-weighted regional pass-through when spot prices increase. These results are useful to the petroleum industry, consumers, and policy makers by providing a basis to estimate the retail price effects that result from a change in spot price.     

Enterprise Bargaining and Productivity in Australia: What do We Know?

There appears to be widespread consensus, at least in industry and government, that enterprise bargaining has been beneficial for productivity. Many academics, however, have argued that the link between bargaining structure and workplace productivity is a contentious one, and that research has been unable to establish a relationship. The present paper re-examines the existing evidence. The review reinforces the need to exercise caution before asserting that enterprise bargaining is necessarily beneficial for workplace productivity. The main conclusion that emanates from this review, however, is not the absence of a clear-cut finding, but how poorly developed the relevant research literature is.     

The impact of a changing financial climate on a UK local charitable sector: voices from the front line

Forced to compete with private and public sector providers, charities experience tensions as the quest for a more commercially-oriented position may conflict with their social imperative. Little attention has been given to understanding the experiences of local charities as service providers. This paper captures the reactions of those working on the charity front line.     

Using FTE and RVU performance measures to assess financial viability of academic nurse-managed centers

Financial performance measures are essential to improve the fiscal management of academic nurse-managed centers (ANMCs). Measures are compared among six ANMCs in a consortium and against an external, self-sustainable, profitable ANMC and national data for family practice physicians. Performance measures help identify a center's strengths and weaknesses facilitating the development of strategies aimed at a variety of targets (business practices related to revenue and costs) to improve financial viability. Using a variety of financial performance measures to inform decision making will aid ANMCs in keeping their doors open for business.