US elections and monthly stock market returns

Using monthly market returns over a period of 104 years, we investigate possible relationships between stock market performance and various occurrences in American elections. Unlike most prior studies, we find little relationship between the two. In the relatively few cases where we do find statistically significant relationships, the degree of explanatory power is quite small. Specifically, market returns do not appear to vary based on partisan control of the government, a result that is robust to the inclusion or exclusion of macroeconomic control variables. Further, the often-discussed “second-half” effect, which predicts higher returns during the second half of a given presidential term, turns out to be both weaker and less straightforward than is commonly believed. Overall, neither election results nor the election cycle appears to offer much help in predicting stock market returns.      

The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993

Using annual data from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Hendry and Ericsson (1991a) developed an empirical model of the demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878–1975. We update that model over 1976–1993, accounting for changed data definitions and clarifying the concept of constancy. With appropriate measures of opportunity cost and credit deregulation, the model's parameters are empirically constant over the extended sample, which was economically turbulent. Policy implications follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting, deregulation and financial innovation, and the effect of policy on economic agents' behavior.     

Common and Exclusive Agencies and Partial Delegation

Within the context of common agency, the article examines separationand partial delegation. The first entails breaking the multiple-taskagency into smaller single-task agencies, whereas the secondallows principals to substitute some of their efforts for theagency's. With respect to the first alternative, it is shownthat common agency can be sustained against separation by thepresence of strong complements. For the second alternative,principals partially delegate their effort and retain the rightto influence agency output at a later stage of the game. Althoughthis tends to weaken agency incentives, principals may preferthis version of common agency than one under full delegationand may prefer it to an exclusive one.     

Discrimination by Gender and Disability Status: Do Worker Perceptions Match Statistical Measures?

We explore whether perceptions of discrimination are related to ordinary statistical measures. The majority of disabled respondents report feeling some discrimination due to their disability, the majority of women feel some discrimination because of their gender, and a surprising number of men also report some discrimination. We do not find a strong link between perceptions of discrimination and measured discrimination perhaps because those who perceive discrimination feel that it occurs along other dimensions than pay. However, we do find a connection between whether a person feels his or her income is inadequate and measured discrimination for all groups studied.     

HMO coverage of cosmetic procedures: Response to market competition

Theory suggests that insurance policies should not cover purely cosmetic procedures. This paper attempts to explain empirical variation in coverage of a purely cosmetic procedure. Health maintenance organizations (HMOs) are modeled in a Cournot competition with two decisions—the number of policies and the limits placed on medical care utilization. Comparative statics for an individual market suggest, first, that restrictiveness is positively associated with the number of HMOs. Second, restrictiveness is positively associated with the predisposition to demand managed care products. Third, each effect is strengthened by increasing the other parameter. Restriction of tattoo ablation, a purely cosmetic procedure, is examined empirically. The first and second predictions are supported at low levels of predisposition and numbers of HMOs, while the third prediction is not supported. The data were obtained under a grant from the Office of Technology Assessment (HMO Laser Procedure Coverage) and a University of Michigan Rackham Pre-Doctoral Fellowship (InterStudy and County Business Patterns).     

Does the law of one price hold in China? Testing price convergence using disaggregated data

This study examines to what extent prices diverge across China and how long it takes prices to converge following idiosyncratic shocks. We consider monthly data using disaggregated goods prices from 36 cities in China. Following [Imbs, J., Mumtaz, H., Ravn, M., and Rey, H., 2005. PPP strikes back: aggregation and the real exchange rate. Quarterly Journal of Economics 120, 1–44.], we use two estimation methods: a fixed effect method when considering goods individually and a mean group estimation specification for a panel including all goods simultaneously. The mean group method also accounts for dynamic heterogeneity across goods. Impulse response functions are obtained to calculate half-lives. With both methods, we find half-lives of only a few months or less, supporting the conjecture that convergence rates within a country are faster than rates estimated in an international context. However, the half-life reported here is still shorter than that for other studies using disaggregated intracountry data. Perhaps a lower degree of specialization and market differentiation in developing countries creates a greater potential for price convergence.     

NPD speed vs. innovativeness: The contingent impact of institutional and market environments

Whereas new product development (NPD) speed and product innovativeness are two critical strategic determinants of firm performance, previous studies show inconclusive findings about their effects. Drawing on institutional and contingency perspectives, this study elucidates value appropriation issues in NPD and examines how the effects of NPD speed and technological radicalness are contingent on institutional frameworks and market conditions. Results from 244 high-tech companies in China show that dysfunctional competition enhances the effect of NPD speed, but legal inadequacy hinders the impact of technological radicalness on firm performance. Market growth strengthens the performance effect of NPD speed but restrains the effect of technological radicalness. In addition, technological radicalness demonstrates stronger effects on firm performance when demand uncertainty is high.     

Brand Equity Management in a Multichannel,Multimedia Retail Environment

Today's multichannel, multimedia retail marketing environment presents a number of brand management challenges. From a micro perspective, marketers must manage each individual channel and communication option to maximize their direct sales and brand equity effects, as well as any indirect brand equity effects from being associated with a particular channel or communication option. From a macro perspective, marketers must design and implement channel and communication options such that sales and brand equity effects are synergistic. Concepts, frameworks, and future research directions are put forth to address these different challenges.     

Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent is assumed to behave as an econometrician, employing a time series model for inflation that allows for both permanent and temporary shocks. The near-unity coefficient on expected inflation in the Phillips curve causes the agent's perception of a unit root in inflation to become close to self-fulfilling. In a “consistent expectations equilibrium,” the value of the Kalman gain parameter in the agent's forecast rule is pinned down using the observed autocorrelation of inflation changes. The forecast errors observed by the agent are close to white noise, making it difficult for the agent to detect a misspecification of the forecast rule. I show that this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying persistence and volatility that is broadly similar to that observed in long-run U.S. data. Model-based values for expected inflation track well with movements in survey-based measures of U.S. expected inflation. In numerical simulations, the model can generate pronounced low-frequency swings in the level of inflation that are driven solely by expectational feedback, not by changes in monetary policy.