Type correlated equilibria for games with payoff uncertainty

Summary Aumann's notion of correlated equilibrium is extended to games with payoff uncertainty. A type correlated equilibrium is a correlated equilibrium for Harsanyi's game in player-types. An equivalent definition is a probability distribution over types and actions which is consistent with the prior distribution over types, such that when each player observes its type and action, the observed action is optimal and no further information about other players' types is obtained. Any such equilibrium can be implemented by a type-independent correlation device when players' observations may be type-dependent. The type correlated equilibrium correspondence is shown to be upperhemicontinuous with respect to player information.Support from NSF grant IRI-8609208 is gratefully acknowledged. I am grateful to Maxwell Stinchcombe for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Measuring the effects of preservation on farm profits in a continuous treatment setting

Despite billions of dollars of public appropriations to state purchase of development rights (PDR) programmes, there has been limited evaluation of the effects of these investments on the economic performance of preserved farms. This article estimates dose-response functions to evaluate the effects of enrolment in New Jersey’s PDR programme on farm profitability. The generalized propensity score method in a continuous treatment setting is used to address selection bias arising from voluntary programme participation. Treatment effects are measured across treatment levels to determine whether farm profitability is affected differently across levels of programme participation. Our findings reveal that, relative to unpreserved farms, profit per acre tends to increase along lower treatment levels. The profit per acre of preserved farms in the 1–40% treatment range is, on average, $407 higher than that of unpreserved farms in the full sample. Positive profit differentials averaging between $317 and $472 per acre are also observed in the 1–20%, 1–40% and 1–60% treatment quintiles in the farming occupation sample. We do not observe statistically significant profitability differentials when treatment effects are averaged across all positive treatment values.     

Using the social system of a supply chain to improve a focal organization’s operating performance

In this paper, we explore how a large organization, operating in a mature, asset-intensive industry, used the social system of a key supply chain to generate significant improvement in operating performance (e.g., inventory turnover ratio improved from 0.8 to 3.2 in 5?years). A case study approach was used to study a steel rail supply chain involving an Australian railway company as the focal company. This supply chain consisted of two other companies: a steel manufacturer and a bulk transporter. Multiple forms of data were collected and analyzed, including models and process maps of the supply chain, published and internal documents, Enterprise Resource Planning system reports, and in-depth interviews of 31 key personnel involved in the supply chain. We found that the organizations had invested heavily in formal systems, such as governance processes and information technology systems. However, it was the informal mechanisms across and within the social system which made the greatest contribution to the resulting improvements. This suggests that organizations may be able to achieve significant operating performance outcomes at far lower cost and in shorter time frames by working through the existing social systems instead of focusing excessively on formal governance and IT systems.     

Harmonizing conflict in husband–wife purchase decision making: perceived fairness and spousal influence dynamics

To market important products to families successfully, salespeople must understand how couples behave in concert to resolve conflict across major decisions. The authors develop a model of spousal fairness and test it with a study of multi-period family purchase decision making. The results show that a spousal sense of fairness serves as a mechanism for contemporary couples to harmonize conflict over time in family decisions. Specifically, spouses’ perceived fairness mediates the relationship between spousal prior influence and spousal decision behavior in subsequent decisions. Spouses also consider their partner’s perceptions of fairness when taking action to restore fairness. Moreover, the effects of perceived fairness are moderated by spousal traits of empathy, egalitarianism, and empowerment in a gendered pattern.

Understanding Error Structures and Exploiting Panel Data in Meta-analytic Benefit Transfers

A regression meta-analysis is a statistical summary of results from a set of empirical studies. While, a meta-analysis is typically used to drawn inferences regarding the collective insights from an empirical literature, a regression meta-analysis can also be used to predict outcomes as a substitute for the conduct of a new study. Within the nonmarket-valuation literature benefit transfers are a special case of prediction where value estimates collected for one purpose are used as a basis for predicting value for unstudied applications. Balancing against the prediction opportunities provided by a regression meta-analysis is the potential prediction error. This paper considers some of these issues in the estimation of a regression meta-analysis to support prediction of nonmarket values for applications where an original study does not exist. We do not purport to address all elements of the error structure and prediction issues, but to present a more coherent focus to enhance future research on the validity and reliability of benefit-function transfers, and ultimately assist in enhancing the credibility of benefit transfers to support policy analyses.     

A continuous income-based grade gap decomposition on university course grades

The earnings premium for education, and higher education in particular, is well documented. This article examines the college achievement gap between students coming from positions of high and low socio-economic status. Other papers have also looked at this issue, often by employing, at least in part, an Oaxaca decomposition. Past papers artificially divided socio-economic status into binary groups of high and low, in order to employ the decomposition. Socio-economic status is innately a continuous variable. Therefore, we implement a continuous version of the Oaxaca decomposition. Higher socio-economic students are both slightly better prepared in terms of observable characteristics and have better returns to their characteristics than lower socio-economic students. Notable differences across results obtained from the binary and continuous decomposition methods are discussed.     

Explaining differences in the productivity of investment across countries in the context of ‘new growth theory’

The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of investment across 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980–2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The productivity of investment is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s gross investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability are the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment and the determinants of productivity of investment differences matter for long-run growth.     

Are remittances good for economic growth? The role of political institutions

Within a sample of 109 developing countries for the period 1975–2014 and controlling for country and time-fixed effects, this article presents evidence that workers’ remittances are more effective in promoting growth in developing countries with strong democratic institutions. The evidence is robust to alternative samples and different measures of democratic institutions.