“Relative Importance of Risk Sources in Insurance Systems”, Edward W. Frees,April 1998

Abstract

This paper considers a Sparre Andersen collective risk model in which the distribution of the interclaim time is that of a sum of n independent exponential random variables; thus, the Erlang(n) model is a special case. The analysis is focused on the function φ(u), the expected discounted penalty at ruin, with u being the initial surplus. The penalty may depend on the deficit at ruin and possibly also on the surplus immediately before ruin. It is shown that the function φ(u) satisfies a certain integro-differential equation and that this equation can be solved in terms of Laplace transforms, extending a result found in Lin (2003). As a consequence, a closed-form expression is obtained for the discounted joint probability density of the deficit at ruin and the surplus just before ruin, if the initial surplus is zero. For this formula and other results, the roots of Lundberg’s fundamental equation in the right half of the complex plane play a central role. Also, it is shown that φ(u) satisfies Li’s (2003) renewal equation. Under the assumption that the penalty depends only on the deficit at ruin and that the individual claim amount density is a combination of exponential densities, a closed-form expression for φ(u) is derived. In this context, known results of the Cauchy matrix are useful. Surprisingly, certain results are best expressed in terms of divided differences, a topic deleted from the actuarial examinations at the end of last century.     

Local banking and local economic growth in Italy: some panel evidence

This article provides new evidence on the contribution of local banking to local economic growth (i.e. at county level – the Italian ‘province’) in Italy. A comprehensive data set is used, which includes control variables for social capital and human capital as well as indicators of the quality of local infrastructures and the production structure of the local economy. A linear within-estimator technique with fixed effects is applied to a modified version of the so-called Barro regression in order to address the well-known econometric issues of reverse causality and estimation bias resulting from unobserved district-specific influences.     

External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area

This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.     

Dynamic no-good-deal pricing measures and extension theorems for linear operators on L ∞

In an L ^∞-framework, we present majorant-preserving and sandwich-preserving extension theorems for linear operators. These results are then applied to price systems derived by a reasonable restriction of the class of applicable equivalent martingale measures. Our results prove the existence of a no-good-deal pricing measure for price systems consistent with bounds on the Sharpe ratio. We treat both discrete- and continuous-time market models. Within this study we present definitions of no-good-deal pricing measures that are equivalent to the existing ones and extend them to discrete-time models. We introduce the corresponding version of dynamic no-good-deal pricing measures in the continuous-time setting.     

OUTPUT FLUCTUATIONS PERSISTENCE: DO CYCLICAL SHOCKS MATTER?

The aim of this paper is to identify the different sources of persistence of output fluctuations. We propose an unobserved components model that allows us to decompose GDP series into a trend component and a cyclical component. We let the drift of the trend component switch between different regimes according to a first‐order Markov process. To calculate an appropriate p‐value for a test of linearity we propose a bootstrap procedure, which allows for general forms of heteroscedasticity. The performance of the bootstrap is checked by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Our study concerns the USA. We find that cyclical shocks appear to play an important role on the observed persistence of output.     

Old Wine in New Bottles: Patenting Propensity

Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade - Although patenting propensity has been an old topic, our understanding of it is still fragmentary due to the complexity in the decision-making and the...     

相关行业上市公司政府补助对铁路公益性补贴的启示

针对航空运输、电信、石油等国家基础设施行业,通过分析这些行业上市公司的政府补助情况,在借鉴相关行业政府补助实践的基础上,提出建立铁路公益性运输发展基金,由中央政府和地方政府共同承担铁路公益性补贴责任的政策建议,同时认为铁路运输企业除争取公益性补贴外,还应争取税收优惠、专项补贴等其他补贴政策。     

WIC Participation and Relative Quality of Household Food Purchases: Evidence from FoodAPS

We examine the effect of the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) on the quality of household food purchases using the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) and propensity score matching. A healthy purchasing index (HPI) is used to measure nutritional quality of household food purchases. WIC foods explain the improvement in quality of food purchases, not self‐selection of more nutrition‐conscious households into the program. The improvement in purchase quality was driven entirely by WIC participating households who redeemed WIC foods during the interview week. There was no significant difference between WIC participants who did not redeem WIC foods and eligible nonparticipants. In this sample, there is no evidence that lack of access to clinics has adverse effects on participation nor is there evidence that HPI depends on supermarket access. A supervised machine learning process supports our main conclusion on the importance of WIC foods.     

Perception evaluation kit: a case study with materials and learning styles

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - Materials are elements that configure our built environment and are key components in design and engineering education. This research aims...