山东省农业发展灰色系统预测

本文依据灰色系统理论建立了山东省农业的GM（1,1）模型并进行了预测,分析了山东省农业的发展态势,提出了保证农业持续和稳定发展的措施。     

Regulatory incentives and financial reporting quality in public healthcare organisations

English National Health Service Foundation Trusts are subject to a regulatory regime in which the level of monitoring and intervention is determined by performance against two key performance metrics: a ‘financial risk rating’, based on a number of performance metrics, such as the reported surplus margin and return on assets, and a ‘prudential borrowing limit’. In this paper, we investigate the variation in financial reporting quality, proxied by discretionary accruals, with the incentives introduced by this regime. We find: first, that discretionary accruals are managed to report small surpluses; second, that, consistent with the avoidance of regulatory intervention in both the short and medium term, discretionary accruals are more positive when pre-managed performance is below intervention triggering thresholds and more negative when well above threshold; third, that, despite a move away from financial breakeven as the primary performance objective, there remains an aversion to small loss reporting. We further find that the level of discretionary accruals is driven by two metrics of strategic significance: the surplus margin (a measure of retained earnings) and the prudential borrowing limit (a measure of borrowing capacity).     

基于VAR模型探究BDI和燃油价格的相互影响

燃油价格近期受疫情影响出现剧烈波动,国际干散货航运市场也受到巨大影响。基于Clarksons官方数据库1992年1月至2020年4月相关数据,进行实证研究发现,国际燃油价格的暴跌对波罗的海干散货运价指数的下降有着显著的正向影响;燃油价格虽然也在一定程度上受到BDI的影响,但存在一定的滞后性。这有利于干散货运输公司根据燃油价格波动预测运价指数的变化趋势,从而采取多样的方式应对冲击。也对保障干散货运输市场的稳定发展有重要意义。     

论推理的权变理性基础与不同体系的自洽性——以"蜈蚣博弈"为讨论对象

一直以来,蜈蚣博弈的基于逻辑(逆推归纳法)的推导结果和试验实践的结果存在很大的偏离,以往学者从两个角度对其原因进行了研究探讨,即"数理纠正"(以Aumann(1988)为代表)和直接否定逆推归纳法的作用(以Binmore和Bernard Walliserr(1996)为代表).本文从一个新的角度--基于人的有限理性而提出的"权变理性"概念为基础,认为蜈蚣博弈的逻辑推导和试验实践,涉及两个独立的自洽的推理过程(绝对的理性和权变的理性),从这个角度出发揭示了蜈蚣博弈之中"悖论"存在的根本原因,并且对这两个独立的推理过程进行比较.同时文章涉及到推理过程中的自我实现效应的讨论,强调重视常识和细节在博弈之中所起到的作用.     

Application of Fuzzy-AHP method in the evaluation of logistics capability in e-commerce environment

In order to solve the complex problem of evaluation of logistics capability in e-commerce environment, an index system model of logistics capability is established based on the method of Fuzzy-AHP in this paper. The results show that the method of Fuzzy-AHP is a powerful and flexible multi-criteria decision-making tool for dealing with complex problems where both qualitative and quantitative aspects need to be considered, and the human preference model is uncertain and decision-makers are reluctant or unable to assign exact numerical values to the comparison judgments. The evaluation model of logistics capability based on method of Fuzzy-AHP can help to make an effective decision in the evaluation of logistics capability. By this way we can effectively deal with the uncertainty and vagueness in the evaluation process of logistics capability. Logistics companies can diagnose their own weaknesses in the area of logistics and enhance their competitiveness.     

评《国际经济比较中量值统一的价值尺度——剖析联合国ICP方法的缺陷》一文需商榷或探讨之处

对《国际经济比较中量值统一的价值尺度——剖析联合国ICP方法的缺陷》一文中有关F法、GK法论述和推理的不妥之处作了评论,重点探讨了F法几何平均的意义及其可传递性的解决以及GK法的思想实质问题。此外,文章对丛文核心思想IVC法与ICP的GK法作了深入比较。     

“标杆示范法”在企业思想政治工作中的应用探索

标杆示范法,是对集体及个人的经验、好的做法进行梳理,在梳理的同时归纳成一系列比较高的标准作为标杆,然后通过多种途径、利用各种有效手段进行示范、推广和学习,使这种高标准由某一个点渗透到更多的面,最终带动整个组织提高管理水平。对＂标杆示范法＂在国有企业的党支部建设、班组建设、员工队伍建设等思想政治工作领域的应用,形成有效的定标、对标、践标、标准化工作的思想政治工作流程进行探索和阐述。     

House price dynamics: Evidence from Beijing

To study the house price dynamics in China, this paper extends the traditional life-cycle model by incorporating land supply, regime shifts and government regulation factors. The models are estimated with an error correction framework using quarterly data from 2000 to 2007 in Beijing. The conclusions are as follows. (1) There exits a stable co-integration relationship between house price and fundamentals; land supply and financial regimes are also important determinants of long-run equilibrium house prices. (2) Short-run dynamics depend on changes of fundamentals and the adjustment process of housing market. Land supply has a significant impact on house price fluctuations while demand factors such as user costs, income and residential mortgage loan have greater influences. The adjustment speed of real house prices to the long-run equilibrium has been reduced significantly since 2005 which means exogenous shocks can cause prolonged deviation of real house prices from the equilibrium level.     

我国纳税信用激励制度设计的实验经济学分析

纳税信用问题反映了纳税人的诚信纳税动机，提升公民的纳税信用需要合理的激励制度安排和配套措施来完善。通过实验经济学的方法，验证了便利的税收服务、对诚信纳税人的税收优惠、公开政府支出信息、公开纳税人的纳税信用、对失信纳税人的惩罚机制以及较好的社会纳税信用环境等正式制度与非正式制度均有利于显著提升我国纳税人的纳税信用倾向，并由此构建我国纳税信用激励制度。