Asymmetry in government bond returns

Is there asymmetry in the distribution of government bond returns in developed countries? Can asymmetries be predicted using financial and macroeconomic variables? To answer the first question, we provide evidence for asymmetry in government bond returns in particular for short maturities. This finding has important implications for modeling and forecasting government bond returns. For example, widely used models for yield curve analysis such as the affine term structure model assume symmetrically distributed innovations. To answer the second question, we find that liquidity in government bond markets predicts the coefficient of skewness with a positive sign, meaning that the probability of a large and negative excess return is more likely in a less liquid market. In addition, a positive realized return is associated with a negative coefficient of skewness, or a small probability of a large and negative return in the future.     

Utility representation theorems for Debreu separable preorders

We prove the existence of arbitrary (resp., semicontinuous, continuous) utility representations for arbitrary (resp., semicontinuous, continuous) preorders satisfying some weakened Debreu order separability conditions. In this way we widely generalize a classical result for total preorders that essentially is due to Debreu.     

The Myth of the Unscrupulous Energy User’s Dilemma: Evidence from Switzerland

Heating and warm water consumption are frequently billed based on actual consumption, and this approach can be assumed to provide a financial incentive to energy consumers to opt for energy-conserving behaviour (e.g., reducing the room temperature or using warm water economically). In many multi-flat buildings in Switzerland, tenants and homeowners still receive a heating and warm water bill that is based on a flat rate that depends on the size of the dwelling, rather than a bill that is based on the amount of energy actually consumed. In such a situation, there may be a social dilemma that leads to non-cooperative behaviour; economic theory predicts that households would choose a strategy of not sacrificing their level of comfort and, therefore, would not opt for energy-conserving behaviour. Psychological theory, on the other hand, suggests that a change in billing type might not, in and of itself, be a sufficient motivator to promote energy-conserving behaviour. This study aims to gain insight into Swiss consumers’ underlying motivations in conserving energy. It empirically tests whether and how a difference in billing type affects consumers’ current stated energy behaviour and their stated intention to conserve energy in the future. In neither of two separate studies was there any evidence of such a possible unscrupulous energy user’s dilemma. Thus, on its own, consumption-based billing might not lead to significant changes in consumer behaviour. However, it could constitute an essential part of a wider behaviour modification programme that includes more effective billing and direct feedback programmes.     

The value of information in monotone decision problems

We study the information preferences and information demand of decision-makers facing uncertainty. We focus on monotone decision problems in which the posterior beliefs induced by the decision-maker’s information can be ordered so that higher actions are chosen in response to higher signal realizations. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for decision makers with different classes of payoff functions to prefer one information structure to another. We also provide conditions under which two decision-makers in a given class can be ranked in terms of their information demand. Applications and examples are given.     

I thought it was over,but now it is back: customer reactions to <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex post</Emphasis> time extensions of sales promotions

In many industries, it is common practice to extend sales promotions ex post. That is, firms belatedly extend the initial deadline of a promotion shortly before or directly after the previously announced deadline, with the expectation of increased sales. Four experimental studies indicate both positive and negative effects of these ex post extensions. First, customers perceive an ex post extended promotional offer as less attractive, such that their repurchase intentions diminish. This negative effect arises consistently across different boundary conditions, such as different customer and product types. Second, the positive effect of ex post extensions stems from the possibility that the consumer can still use the promotional offer, so it emerges only for potential customers and existing customers of frequently bought products. Companies can mitigate the dark side of ex post extensions proactively, by designing the extensions to last for only a short time or offering an explanation for the extension that highlights the popularity of the initial promotion.     

Optimistic irrationality and overbidding in private value auctions

Bidding one’s value in a second-price, private-value auction is a weakly dominant solution (Vickrey in J Finance 16(1):8–37, 1961), but repeated experimental studies find more overbidding than underbidding. We propose a model of optimistically irrational bidders who understand that there are possible gains and losses associated with higher bids but who may overestimate the additional probability of winning and/or underestimate the potential losses when bidding above value. These bidders may fail to discover the dominant strategy—despite the fact that the dominant strategy only requires rationality from bidders—but respond in a common sense way to out-of-equilibrium outcomes. By varying the monetary consequences of losing money in experimental auctions we observe more overbidding when the cost to losing money is low, and less overbidding when the cost is high. Our findings lend themselves to models in which less than fully rational bidders respond systematically to out-of-equilibrium incentives, and we find that our model better fits the effects of our manipulations than most of the existing models we consider.     

A comparative analysis of hedonic models of nutrition information and health claims on food products: An application to soup products

Over time, the quality of data on food purchases and label information has improved such that hedonic analyses to determine the implicit prices of product attributes can be conducted using more detailed data than in the past. With the availability of more extensive data, it is important to understand the characteristics of the data and implications of using different data sources on results of analyses. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) compare results between two sources of label information and (2) develop a better understanding of the effects of product claims and nutrition information on the value of products to consumers. Trans fat claims, organic claims, private label, package size, and several nutrients were found to influence implicit prices for soup products, and the results between the two data sources are comparable.