The national innovation policy effect according to firm location

The regional nature of innovation and innovation policy was investigated. The aim of this study was to determine whether the specific economic and institutional conditions of a region had an influence on the results of a national policy intended to support entrepreneurial innovation. The analysis compared the effect of the national R&D subsidies on the innovation effort of firms located in central regions, which concentrate an important percentage of the national innovation activity, together with those firms located in periphery regions. Significant regional differences were detected with regard to the national R&D subsidies’ effect and distribution. The central regions manifested a higher subsidy effect compared to the periphery regions. The results of this study have allowed us to conclude that the region plays an important differentiating role in connection with the final result of the innovation policy aimed at the entire national territory. Therefore, this study recommends including the geographical location of the firm in future evaluations.     

The effects of trading activity on market volatility

The paper re-examines the question of excessive implied persistence of volatility estimates when GARCH type models are used. Ten actively traded US stocks are considered and as already established in the literature, when volume traded is inserted in the GARCH (1, 1) or (EGARCH 1, 1) models for returns, the estimated persistence is decreased. Since volume is affected also by within-the-day price movements and hence is not weakly exogenous relative to returns, alternative proxies for trading activities are suggested. It is concluded that the difference between the opening price and the closing price of the previous day accounts also for most of the persistence in the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity.     

A non-parametric independence test using permutation entropy

In the present paper we construct a new, simple, consistent and powerful test for independence by using symbolic dynamics and permutation entropy as a measure of serial dependence. We also give a standard asymptotic distribution of an affine transformation of the permutation entropy under the null hypothesis of independence. The test statistic and its standard limit distribution are invariant to any monotonic transformation. The test applies to time series with discrete or continuous distributions. Eventhough the test is based on entropy measures, it avoids smoothed non-parametric estimation. An application to several daily financial time series illustrates our approach.     

Job creation and job destruction in the presence of informal markets

In developing economies, the fraction of informal workers can be as high as 70% of total employment. For economies with significant informal sectors, business cycle fluctuations and labor market policy interventions can have important effects not only on the unemployment rate, but also on the allocation of workers across regulated and unregulated jobs. In this paper, using worker flows data from Brazil, we build, calibrate, and simulate a two-sector search and matching labor market model, in which firms have the choice of hiring workers formally or informally. We show that our model can explain well the main cyclical patterns that lead to those cyclical reallocations. We also show how the effect of government interventions in the labor market depend on the magnitude of the reallocation of labor across regulated and unregulated sectors. For our calibration, policies that decrease the cost of formal jobs, or increase the cost of informality, raise the share of formal employment while reducing unemployment.     

Structural equality at the top of the corporation: Mandated quotas for women directors

We propose a concept of structural equality as a compromise between competing policy preferences of equality and individual liberty to address a stunning property of the governance of corporations, namely, the paucity of female directors on corporate boards. An argument for imposing a quota for women directors on boards is the need to disrupt structural impediments to permit endogenous mechanisms to sustain female recruitment beyond a critical mass. Using estimates from the Norwegian experiment, we apply an agent‐based model to American board data to show that modest numerical quotas generate well‐connected networks of women directors who attain equality in their centrality and influence. The analysis demonstrates the utility of computational social science for identifying policies that generate alternative and possible worlds of greater structural equality. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asset Allocation and the Performance of Real Estate Mutual Funds

We examine the performance of real estate mutual funds during January 1991–December 1997. As a group, the sampled funds outperformed the Wilshire Real Estate Securities Index on a risk-adjusted basis by more than 5 percentage points annually. We attempt to explain these surprising findings by examining the fund's asset allocations across stocks, bonds and real estate property types using Sharpe's (1992) effective-mix test. We find that all of the superior performance is attributable to fund managers' decisions to overweight outperforming property types (apartments and health care) relative to the Wilshire Real Estate Securities Index weights. Performance of the funds matches a multiple-property-type benchmark that takes account of the fund's exposure to each property type. Therefore, real estate funds demonstrated superior allocation across property types, but neither superior nor inferior selection within property type, during 1991–1997. Our findings emphasize the importance of asset allocation for real estate mutual-fund performance.     

A Coincident Index,Common Factors,and Monthly Real GDP*

The Stock–Watson coincident index and its subsequent extensions assume a static linear one‐factor model for the component indicators. This restrictive assumption is unnecessary if one defines a coincident index as an estimate of monthly real gross domestic products (GDP). This paper estimates Gaussian vector autoregression (VAR) and factor models for latent monthly real GDP and other coincident indicators using the observable mixed‐frequency series. For maximum likelihood estimation of a VAR model, the expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm helps in finding a good starting value for a quasi‐Newton method. The smoothed estimate of latent monthly real GDP is a natural extension of the Stock–Watson coincident index.     

Comparative analysis of labor market dynamics using Markov processes: An application to informality

This paper discusses a set of statistics for examining labor market dynamics in developing countries and offers a simple search model that informs their interpretation. It then employs panel data from Argentina, Brazil and Mexico to generate a set of preliminary stylized facts about patterns of sectoral transition and duration. Finally, it nests two competing views of the informal sector within the model and uses variation in the statistics across age and the business cycle to help discriminate between them. The results suggest that a substantial part of the informal sector, particularly the self-employed, corresponds to voluntary entry, although informal salaried work may correspond more closely to the standard queuing view, especially for younger workers.     

General equilibrium in CLO markets

We address a two-period equilibrium model with securitization of collateral-backed promises. Borrowers may suffer extra-economic default penalties and debts are pooled into collateralized loans obligations (CLO), allowing different seniority levels among tranches in a same CLO.