阿根廷失业的持续性:分地区的微观和宏观分析

本文旨在发展一个简单的方法来研究阿根廷各个地区失业的持续性。我们采用两个互补的视角 ,将宏观的 (加总 )回滞方法和微观的动态 (个人两阶段 )估计相结合。宏观分析的结果表明 ,大部分影响各地区和人口子集失业率的冲击都是显著持久的 (由于劳动参与和就业都有回滞性 (hysteresis) )。而另一方面 ,微观的分析则发现了明显的状态依赖 (state -dependence)效应 (存在于大部分地区的年轻人和妇女中 ) ,和一个仅在高失业率时才显著的时期依赖 (duration -dependence)效应。     

TRADE POLICY AND PROTECTIONISM IN ARGENTINA

Protectionism can take many different forms. In some cases, strong export performance can mislead observers assessing the trade policy of a country. Such is the case with regard to Argentina, where the strong showing in exports is not the result of a strategy of export‐led economic growth, but rather reflects a complex strategy of government intervention and isolation from international markets in general.     

Directed hypergraphs as a modelling paradigm

We address a generalization of graphs, the directed hypergraphs, and show that they are a powerful tool in modelling and solving several relevant problems in many application areas. Such application areas include Linear Production Problems, Flexible Manufacturing Systems, Propositional Logic, Relational Databases, and Public Transportation Systems.     

Where are we in the political economy of reform?

We review the experiences of developing countries with market-oriented reforms, using the tools of modern political economy. We impose intellectual discipline by requiring that actors behave rationally using available information and that basic economic relationships such as budget constraints be accounted for. We attempt to integrate two approaches, one based on dynamic games played by interest groups, with one that focus on limited information and the dynamics of learning.

We describe the “starting point” as the set of “old” policies and we attempt to explain the dynamics (political, economic and informational) that lead to reform (section II). We analyze strategies for reformers subject to political constraints (section Ш). We evaluate the aggregate and distributional costs of reforms, emphasizing the importance of looking at the right counterfactuals (section IV).

We conclude by pointing to the challenges ahead: the second-stage institutional reforms necessary to take off from underdevelopment.     

Matthew effect,capabilities and innovation policy: the Argentinean case

The purpose of this paper is to test the presence of Matthew effects in different types of public funding for innovation – non-refundable grants, subsidized loans and tax credits. According to the literature, Matthew effect refers to the impact of past accessing to public funds on reputation, which increases the probability of accessing in the present. The dataset is made of 966 firms that accessed the Technological Argentinean Fund (FONTAR), main instrument to foster innovation in Argentina, during 2007–2013 – 3300 observations. Results confirm the existence of Matthew effects: past accessing to FONTAR increases the probability of accessing in the present, but only when different instruments are taken altogether. Then, Matthew effect is positively associated with the diversification of access to promotional instruments rather than the repeated access to one type of funding tool. Additionally, results show that firm’s innovation investments, R&D activities, and human resources, explain the increase in probability of accessing, which provides evidence regarding the presence of capability effects. All of this suggests that once the firm enters the system of public funding, it remains with an active innovative behaviour, not just because of reputation effects, but because it has accumulated capabilities in the pursuit of a technological advantage.     

A graphical representation of an estimated DSGE model

We write a New Keynesian model as an aggregate demand curve and an aggregate supply curve, relating inflation to output growth. The graphical representation shows how structural shocks move aggregate demand and supply simultaneously. We estimate the curves on US data from 1948 to 2010 and study two recessions: the 2001 recession and the Great Recession of 2008–2009. The Great Recession is explained by a collapse of aggregate demand driven by adverse preference and permanent technology shocks, and expectations of low inflation.     

Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001

The purpose of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the Spanish urban system. We study the evolution of population growth among the group of 722 municipalities included in the Spanish urban areas over the period 1900–2001. A spatial SUR model is estimated for Zipf’s law and shows the existence of two main phases: divergence (1900–1980) and convergence (1980–2001). Then, the cross-sectional distribution of urban population is characterized by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are finally introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning. This analysis shows a low interclass mobility, i.e., a high-persistence of urban municipalities to stay in their own class from one decade to another over the whole period, and the influence of the geographical environment on urban population dynamism. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands, August 23–27, 2005) and at the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics (Rome, Italy, May 25–27, 2006). We would like to thank two anonymous referees, M. Bosker, P. Cheshire, A. Carrington, B. Fingleton, R. Guillain, E. Lopez-Bazo, J. Paelinck and the other participants of these meetings for their valuable comments. Coro Chasco acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science SEJ2006-14277-C04-01. The usual disclaimers apply.