An assessment of the Europe agreements’ effects on bilateral trade, GDP, and welfare

The so-called Europe Agreements had been enacted in the 1990s to initiate the integration of goods markets between the 15 EU incumbent economies as of 1995 and 10 potential entrants located in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper evaluates the trade, GDP, and welfare effects of these agreements by means of structural analysis of a bilateral trade flow model. The results support three conclusions. First, the agreements exerted significant positive effects on goods trade between the EU15 incumbents and the CEEC and, at the same time, they induced trade redirection from other countries. Second, EU15 GDP responded by an increase of much less than 1% while that in the 10 CEEC increased by several percent in response to the agreements. Third, the effects on welfare were moderate in the EU15 but amounted to more double-digit percentage changes in the involved CEEC.     

Engines of growth. Innovation and productivity in industry groups

The diversity of technological activities that contribute to growth in labour productivity is examined in this article for manufacturing and services industries in eight major EU countries. We test the relevance of two “engines of growth”, i.e., the strategies of technological competitiveness (based on innovation in products and markets) and cost competitiveness (relying on innovation in processes and machinery) and their impact on economic performance. We propose models for the determinants of changes in labour productivity and we carry out empirical tests for both the whole economy and for the four Revised Pavitt classes that group manufacturing and services industries with distinct patterns of innovation. Tests are carried out by pooling industries, countries and three time periods, using innovation survey data from CIS 2, 3 and 4, linked to economic variables. The results confirm the specificity of the two “engines of growth”; economic performances in European industries appear as the result of different innovation models, with strong specificities of the four Revised Pavitt classes.     

Institutional environment for entrepreneurship in rapidly emerging major economies: the case of Brazil,China, India,and Korea

The country institutional profile (CIP) construct has become the most widely used conceptualization of institutional environment for entrepreneurship. This construct is frequently employed to study institutional forces influencing entrepreneurial activity at the national level. However, relatively little is known about the cross-national equivalence of the construct. Moreover, the institutional environment for entrepreneurship in emerging economies remains largely under-explored. To address these issues, in the current study, we used the most frequently utilized CIP scale to collect data from 809 young adults in four rapidly emerging countries: Brazil, China, India, and South Korea. We examined the invariance of the CIP construct and unraveled differences in perceived institutional profiles among these rapidly emerging economies. Results support the CIP construct as largely invariant in the four REME countries and revealed important differences in specific aspects of institutional environments in these countries. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.     

A note on the international transmission of inflation: The impact of U.S. inflation on Mexico

This paper investigates the relative impact of U.S. inflation and domestic monetary factors on the joint determination of inflation and the balance of payments of Mexico between 1950 and 1979. It also tests the hypothesis that the U.S. money supply has an additional, direct impact on Mexico's balance of payments.     

Playing in between: patent brokers in markets for technology

Here we argue that patent brokers do not only stay in between supply and demand of innovation, but play in between executing complex transactions and taking entrepreneurial risk. In doing so, they serve a support function to R&D managers of firms adopting various approaches to technological change. We discuss how economic and sociological theories explain brokerage and its existence. Our qualitative analysis of the current practice of patent brokerage in the United States finds some evidence in support of such arguments, and moreover helps us reach a taxonomy of brokerage. We conclude with our own proposition, suggesting that even in very dense environments, the bridging role of intellectual property intermediaries is that of market makers, who leverage their specific investment to play in between technology demand and supply.     

Pension Wealth Uncertainty

Using a representative sample of Italian investors, we measure the uncertainty of social security benefits by eliciting for each individual the subjective distribution of the replacement rate as a summary indicator of pension uncertainty. We find that pension uncertainty varies across individuals in a way that is consistent with what one would expect a priori, given different information sets and pension schemes. In particular, individuals who are a long way from retirement, and thus face more career uncertainty, report more subjective pension uncertainty. Since expectations reveal information about people's understanding of pension reforms, our findings suggest that they should also be an important determinant of how people respond to reforms.     

Nominal interest rates and stationarity

This paper investigates the (break) stationarity null hypothesis using data for 25 interest rates with different maturities and risk characteristics in Canada and the US. In contrast to a large part of the literature, this paper reports strong empirical evidence in favour of the null hypothesis of stationarity for the interest rate series.