Let's Get Real: A Factor Analytical Approach to Disaggregated Business Cycle Dynamics

This paper develops a method for analysing the dynamics of large cross-sections based on a factor analytic model. We use "law of large numbers" arguments to show that the number of common factors can be determined by a principal components method, the economy-wide shocks can be identified by means of simple structural VAR techniques and that the parameters of the unobserved factor model can be estimated consistently by applying OLS equation by equation. We distinguish between a technological and a non-technological shock. Identification is obtained by minimizing the negative realizations of the technology shock. Empirical results on 4-digit industrial output and productivity for the U.S. economy from 1958 to 1986 show that: (1) at least two economy-wide shocks, both having a long-run effect on sectoral output, are needed to explain the common dynamics; (2) although the technological shock accounts for at least 50 per cent of the aggregate dynamics of output, it cannot by itself explain dynamics at business cycle frequencies; (3) sector-specific shocks explain the main bulk of total variance but generate mainly high frequency dynamics; (4) both the technological and the non-technological component of output show a peak for positive sectoral comovements of output at business cycle frequencies; (5) technological shocks are strongly correlated with the growth rates of the investment in machinery and equipment sectors and their inputs.     

Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area

This paper proposes a new way to compute a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. Our methodology, based on Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000), reconciles dynamic principal components analysis with dynamic factor analysis. It allows us to extract indicators from a large panel of economic variables (many variables for many countries). The procedure is used to estimate coincident and leading indicators for the EURO area. Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the within-country correlation structure and exploit all information on dynamic cross-correlation.     

Cassetti's New Method for the Identification of Patterns in Input–Output Matrices: An Alternative Formulation

The least upper bound on the overall proportional error that results from the simplification of an input—output matrix is a useful measure of the information loss. In particular, it is proven that some of the available results on this bound can be used to reduce the computations required for an optimal introduction of zeros. Furthermore, it is shown that the matrix that solves the simplification problem for any given level of error is generally not unique, so that it is possible to impose a priori constraints on the pattern of zeros in the matrix.     

Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data

Using an extensive micro-price panel, we find a positive cross-sectional relationship between LOP persistence and the distribution margin, which we measure using sectoral U.S. data, as suggested by the classical dichotomy. The median level of persistence (across goods) is low, and there is no evidence of a border effect: the half-life of a deviation is about 19 months across OECD cities and just 1 month lower across cities in the U.S. Aggregating our micro-data using a variety of weighting methods shows PPP persistence to be in the range of 1-2 years, over the 1990-2005 period. These results challenge three widely held views: (i) the classical dichotomy is irrelevant; (ii) high persistence is a robust feature of aggregate real exchange rates; and (iii) border crossings necessarily generate greater real exchange rate persistence.     

The Evaluation of Innovation Capabilities in Small Software Firms: A Methodological Approach

This paper presents a methodological approach for the evaluation of innovation capabilities in small software firms. The methodology is based on the assumption of a relationship between specific resources managed by small software firms and their innovation capabilities. Within the proposed methodological approach, a model for the quantitative analysis of innovation capabilities is presented. In order to show how the methodology can be applied to concrete situations, three case studies of small firms operating in the software sector and information services are presented and discussed.     

Concurrent learning: How firms develop multiple dynamic capabilities in parallel

Much is known about the importance of dynamic capabilities. Yet, surprisingly little is known about how multiple dynamic capabilities might be developed in parallel, since most existing work explores a particular dynamic capability in isolation. Using rich quantitative and qualitative data on Dow Chemical's acquisitions, joint ventures, and divestitures over the past 20 years, we seek to address this gap. Besides contributing by adding fresh insights about managing growth and the utility of distributed practice, and by shedding light on positive and negative experience transfer, our core contribution is an emergent theoretical framework that develops the concept of “concurrent learning. ” Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assimilation of immigrants in Spain: A longitudinal analysis

In this paper we use a new panel dataset to analyse the earnings assimilation of immigrants in Spain. We show that immigrants reduce the wage gap relative to natives by 15 pp during the first 5–6 years after arrival, but the earnings differential does not disappear completely. Earnings assimilation is not homogeneous across different nationalities, being faster for South-American and European (new accession countries to EU) immigrants compared to Africans. Finally, we show that human capital gains within the firm as opposed to higher mobility contribute the most to their assimilation process.     

Firm Size and Innovation in European Manufacturing

The paper investigates the differences between small, medium-sized and large firms regarding their performance in the introduction of new products and processes. After a review of the relevant literature, two models are proposed and tested in search for different business strategies and innovation inputs connected to product and process innovations. The empirical analysis uses innovation survey (CIS 2) data at the industry level for 22 manufacturing sectors, broken down in three firm size classes, for eight European countries. Special attention is devoted to tackling the issues of possible endogeneity of the regressors and of unobserved sectoral heterogeneity. The results – strengthening the findings of previous studies – show that product and process innovations, though having some complementarities, are associated to different innovative inputs and strategies pursued by firms. Systematic differences also emerge between the behaviour of large firms and SMEs.      

The evaluation of public investments under uncertainty

In this paper we revise and extend the theory of the evaluation of public investments under uncertainty. Precisely, we argue that the value of the investments that the public sector would be willing to undertake is never below its market value, and that it can be higher if it provides social insurance.