A NOTE ON METROECONOMICA: SHACKLE'S CONTRIBUTION

In the 1950s Shackle contributed a number of important articles to Metroeconomica, a new economic journal founded by Eraldo Fossati in 1949 and published in Trieste (Italy). The journal gave considerable prominence to Shackle's theory of decision under uncertainty through publication of many articles, but, above all, through publication of the proceedings of a symposium held in 1959 and entitled ‘Shackle's theory on decision’. The aim of this note is to clarify why Metroeconomica gave particular importance to Shackle's perspective.     

Einzelbesprechungen

Ohne ZusammenfassungAus dem Englischen übersetzt von J. SteindlAus dem Italienischen übersetzt von Erich Allina, Wien     

The Beveridge curve and unemployment fluctuations in Canada

We estimate the impact of cyclical, sectoral, and participation shocks and that of the trend on both the Canadian unemployment rate and the job vacancy rate over the 1969 to 1998 period. We conclude that a rise in the Canadian unemployment rate of almost 5 percentage units occurred between 1972 and 1982 because of participation rate shocks and a trend movement. Because the trend also explains the leftward shift of the Beveridge curve observed in the 1990s, this shift cannot be interpreted as a decline in the natural unemployment rate.
La courbe de Beveridge et les fluctuations du chômage au Canada. Les auteurs évaluent la contribution des chocs sectoriels, des changements dans le taux d'activité, des fluctuations cycliques et de la tendance sur les mouvements du taux de chômage et du taux de postes vacants pendant la période 1969–98. Ils concluent que le taux de chômage non conjoncturel s'est accru de près de 5 points de pourcentage entre 1972 et 1982 en raison de chocs dans le taux d'activité et d'un mouvement tendanciel. Le déplacement vers la gauche de la courbe de Beveridge observé dans les années 1990 est pour sa part le résultat d'une baisse tendancielle des postes vacants et n'indique nullement que le taux de chômage naturel ait diminué pendant cette période.     

How different are social choice functions: a rough sets approach

The number of different social choice procedures currently in use is vast. So is the number of criteria used in the evaluation of the procedures. We discuss several voting procedures in the light of methodology based on rough sets introduced by Pawlak. This methodology is used in identifying the crucial characteristics of various choice methods and in defining a metric for measuring the quantitative differences of choice methods.     

Costs and benefits of unilateral euroization in central eastern Europe

Countries unable or unwilling to join a monetary union can replicate most membership effects unilaterally through either a currency board or the formal replacement of domestic currency by that of the Union. Potential benefits include lower transaction costs, lower interest rates, and lower exposure to speculative attacks. Costs include initial reserves, inadequate response to asymmetric shocks, loss of seigniorage, no lender of last resort. Expected costs and benefits have probably been exaggerated. Net effects depend primarily on the degree of monetary, real, and institutional convergence. Positive net advantages will accrue to countries that are either already converging, or wish to use a single currency to speed up convergence — especially if small. There is no legal or economic justification for EU aversion to unilateral euroization in accession candidate countries. JEL classification: F33, F36, E58, P33.     

POLAND'S NEW ECONOMIC STRATEGY 1994–97

D. Mario Nuti reviews the policies of the left-wing coalition that came to power in Poland in September 1993. There has been no change in target model, transition speed or fiscal stance. Changes in policy trade-offs and instruments - though important - are within the bounds of party alternation in any democracy. Economic recovery is strong in spite of adverse political developments.     

Black-market exchange-rate expectations and the domestic demand for money: Some empirical results

This paper analyzes the effects of expectations about future exchange-rate adjustments on the demand for money. These effects are studied empirically for the case of countries which have imposed foreign-exchange restrictions. The results obtained for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia indicate that the demand for money is significantly reduced when expectations of black-market depreciation intensify; and that when this variable (for which the proxy used is the divergence of the black-market exchange rate from purchasing power parity) is omitted from the demand-for-money function, the response of the demand for money to changes in the expected rate of domestic inflation tends to be overestimated.