The Impact of Social Housing Developments on Nearby Property Prices: a Nelson Mandela Bay Case Study

Social housing projects often face substantial “Not‐in‐my‐backyard” (NIMBY) sentiment and, as a result, are frequently plagued by local opposition from communities who argue that nearby property prices will be affected adversely by these developments. International hedonic pricing studies conducted have, however, produced mixed results with some concluding that social housing developments may in fact lead to an improvement in surrounding property values. There is, however, a paucity of South African evidence. This study considers the validity of the most pervasive NIMBY argument, the claim that social housing developments negatively affect nearby property values, by considering the property prices of 170 single‐family homes in the Walmer neighbourhood, Nelson Mandela Bay, as a function of their proximity to an existing low‐cost housing development. The results of this study indicate that in the case of one Nelson Mandela Bay low‐cost housing development, a negative impact is exerted on the property values of nearby houses.     

Prediction Error of the Multivariate Chain Ladder Reserving Method

Abstract

In this paper we consider the claims reserving problem in a multivariate context: that is, we study the multivariate chain-ladder (CL) method for a portfolio of N correlated runoff triangles based on multivariate age-to-age factors. This method allows for a simultaneous study of individual runoff subportfolios and facilitates the derivation of an estimator for the mean square error of prediction (MSEP) for the CL predictor of the ultimate claim of the total portfolio. However, unlike the already existing approaches we replace the univariate CL predictors with multivariate ones. These multivariate CL predictors reflect the correlation structure between the subportfolios and are optimal in terms of a classical optimality criterion, which leads to an improvement of the estimator for the MSEP. Moreover, all formulas are easy to implement on a spreadsheet because they are in matrix notation. We illustrate the results by means of an example.     

Law of large numbers and large deviations for dependent risks

We analyse the mathematical structure of models for large risk portfolios, especially for credit risk models. These risk portfolios are modelled using a multivariate mixture model for the dependence structure between the risks. The dependence structures are characterized by latent variables Θ, which play the role of systematic risks. We show that, depending on the choice of the distribution of Θ, there are different asymptotic behaviours for the aggregated risk portfolio, namely law of large numbers/central limit theorem behaviour and large deviation behaviour.     

Examining How Country Image Influences Destination Image in a Behavioral Intentions Model: The Cases of Lloret De Mar (Spain) and Cancun (Mexico)

Understanding the importance of a country’s image in the behavioral intentions of tourists is essential for sun-and-sand destinations. This study examines an integrated model of behavioral intentions regarding two international tourist destinations, namely Cancun (Mexico) and Lloret de Mar (Spain). The results indicate that country image influences destination image; destination image influences value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions; value influences satisfaction; and satisfaction influences behavioral intentions. These findings confirm that the country and destination images are different constructs, and that destination image is the key to attracting tourists. Additionally, there are some differences in the relationships hypothesized in the model among the destinations.     

A structural time series approach to modelling multiple and resurgent meat scares in Italy

This paper exploits a structural time series approach to model the time pattern of multiple and resurgent food scares and their direct and cross-product impacts on consumer response. A structural time series Almost Ideal Demand System (STS-AIDS) is embedded in a vector error correction framework to allow for dynamic effects (VEC-STS-AIDS). Italian aggregate household data on meat demand is used to assess the time-varying impact of a resurgent BSE crisis (1996 and 2000) and the 1999 Dioxin crisis. The VEC-STS-AIDS model monitors the short-run impacts and performs satisfactorily in terms of residuals diagnostics, overcoming the major problems encountered by the customary vector error correction approach.     

Corporate communication management: A framework based on decision-making with reference to communication resources

This paper proposes a conceptual framework for corporate communication management, based on the creation and utilisation of communication resources. The aim is to address a gap in the literature in that to date, communication tools have been identified as communication resources in very few studies, nor have communication decisions been linked to the creation and use of such resources. The paper draws on some basic resource-based view assumptions to identify firm-specific communication resources. The study also draws on Parsons' sociological approach with reference to the classification of organisational decisions (policy, allocation and coordination) and contextualises this approach to the decision-making within corporate communication function/department. The framework also takes into account some elements of the postmodernism. According to this tendency in contemporary culture, internal and external stakeholders play a proactive role in the creation and utilisation of communication resources. The study contributes to the development of corporate communication as an autonomous area of management.     

Why Europe Needs a Public Investment Plan

In the continuing stagnation of European economies, the persistence of inadequate demand plays a crucial role that deserves greater attention. First and foremost, we are in a context of slower international growth, in which global world trade is growing more slowly than global GDP. This implies that exports are not in the position to be the driver of renewed growth for Europe.     

Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade

On combining national terms-of-trade data for developing countries with world prices of internationally traded primary commodities, it is found that variation in the world prices of three or fewer key exported commodities account for 50% or more of the annual variation in the terms of trade of a typical developing country. A considerable fraction of the variation is specific to a particular commodity and, given that the overall importance of primary commodities differs across developing countries, it is possible to account for much of the heterogeneity across them. It is concluded that commodity price fluctuations should be central features of two related literatures: studies of business cycle transmission across developing and industrialized nations, and empirical work aimed at constructing perpetual claims on developing country incomes as suggested by Shiller in 1995.     

Incentive effects of paying demand response in wholesale electricity markets

Recently issued U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulations require comparable treatment of demand reduction and generation in the wholesale electric market so that they are compensated at the same market clearing price. The new regulations measure demand reduction as a reduction from a “customer baseline,” a historically based estimate of the expected consumption. In this paper, we study the incentive effects on the efficiency of the demand response regulation using a static equilibrium model and a dynamic extension of the model. Our analysis provides three main results. Firstly, our analysis shows that the demand reduction payment will induce consumers to (1) inflate the customer baseline by increasing consumption above the already excessive level during normal peak periods and (2) exaggerate demand reduction by decreasing consumption beyond the efficient level during a demand response event. This result persists when applied to alternative baseline designs in a dynamic model. Secondly, we study alternative policy remedies to restore the efficiency of demand response regulation and introduce a new approach to define the customer baseline as a fixed proportion of an aggregate baseline. In particular, the aggregate baseline approach can significantly weaken or eliminate the incentive to inflate the baseline. Finally, we illustrate that if the baseline inflation problem is solved and demand and supply functions are linear, the current policy can produce a net social welfare gain. However, the welfare improvement requires that demand reduction be paid only when the wholesale price is at least twice the fixed retail rate. This argues that the policy should include a sufficiently high threshold price below which demand response is not dispatched.