FOSTERING EDUCATIONAL ENROLMENT THROUGH SUBSIDIES: THE ISSUE OF TIMING

The purpose of this paper is to build a dynamic structural model of educational choices in which cognitive skills shape decisions. The model is estimated by maximum likelihood using cohort data where individuals are observed from birth to the middle of their working life. These data are unique in that they include cognitive skills test scores collected as early as age 7. We then investigate how alternative policies foster educational enrolment. In particular, we simulate the effect of two subsidies different in the timing of disbursement. The first consists of grants assigned directly to individuals aged between 16 and 18. The second is assigned to the parents earlier on, when the cohort is still in its childhood. The latter subsidy affects cognitive skills accumulation and in turn educational choices. Our results suggest that a grant fosters enrolment at the lowest cost but the parental income subsidy generates more welfare as measured by a class of social welfare functions. Nevertheless, these differences in costs and welfare are small. Overall, the results reinforce the view that government investments in cognitive skill accumulation during childhood are worthwhile. However, the results also indicate that such investments should be well structured to ensure a high return. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconfigurable organisation to cope with unpredictable goals

The paper proposes a methodology and design rules for organisational structures facing higher necessity of rapidly reconfigure themselves to cope with unpredictable situations—new markets, new products, changing mix of production, problems in production process or flows etc. It implies changing and often conflictive criteria for production goals and for the allocation of work. The methodology was developed based on a large field action research and consulting. Their basis is the design of auto-reconfigurable working groups—or groups with variable geometry, depending on the events to face.     

Tourism and economic development: The beach disease?

This paper analyses empirically the danger of a Dutch Disease Effect in tourism dependent countries in the long run. Data on 134 countries of the world over the period 1970–2007 is used. In a first step the long-run relationship between tourism and economic growth is analysed in a cross-country setting. The results are then checked in a panel data framework on GDP per capita levels that allows to control for reverse causality, non-linearity and interactive effects. It is found that there is no danger of a Beach Disease Effect. On the contrary, tourism dependent countries do not face real exchange rate distortion and deindustrialisation but higher than average economic growth rates. Investment in physical capital, such as for instance transport infrastructure, is complementary to investment in tourism.     

El efecto Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson El caso de México

This paper discusses the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson (HBS) effect in Mexico during the period 1970-2009. In so doing, we use an econometric model that incorporates structural changes. The results achieved in this research suggest that the HBS effect does not hold in the case of Mexico and the United States during this period, and thus it was not statistically corroborated that the different rates of productivity growth in the tradable and non tradable goods between these countries affected the real exchange rate.     

Nominal interest rates and stationarity

This paper investigates the (break) stationarity null hypothesis using data for 25 interest rates with different maturities and risk characteristics in Canada and the US. In contrast to a large part of the literature, this paper reports strong empirical evidence in favour of the null hypothesis of stationarity for the interest rate series.     

Pension Wealth Uncertainty

Using a representative sample of Italian investors, we measure the uncertainty of social security benefits by eliciting for each individual the subjective distribution of the replacement rate as a summary indicator of pension uncertainty. We find that pension uncertainty varies across individuals in a way that is consistent with what one would expect a priori, given different information sets and pension schemes. In particular, individuals who are a long way from retirement, and thus face more career uncertainty, report more subjective pension uncertainty. Since expectations reveal information about people's understanding of pension reforms, our findings suggest that they should also be an important determinant of how people respond to reforms.     

Key Factors of Recent Chinese Provincial Economic Growth

The aim of this paper is to analyse the factors that affected Chinese provincial economic growth after the reforms of the early 1980s, through a panel analysis (period 1986–2001). The production function approach focuses on human capital, ‘space-serving’ infrastructure, sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes. Indices relevant for the analysis are elaborated and provincial capital stocks are estimated. The empirical results indicate the positive role of capital stock, human capital and physical infrastructure and underline that sectoral allocation of labour and institutional changes affected the level of aggregate output. A redistribution policy in favour of the inland provinces needs to be implemented so that human capital and infrastructure can be enhanced, bottlenecks can be overcome and investment can be attracted.     

Designing a forest-energy policy to reduce forest fires in Galicia (Spain): A contingent valuation application

Recent issues of this journal have presented an interesting debate regarding forest fires in Galicia, Spain. This article proposes a forest-energy programme that will contribute to reducing the risk of forest fires in this Atlantic Region of Southern Europe. We apply the contingent valuation method to assess a programme whereby 10% of the electricity produced from coal, fuel oil and gas would be replaced by electricity generated in biomass power plants. The programme would begin implementation in 2005 and it would take 6 years (up to 2010) before we reach the 10% goal. The results show that Galician households are willing to pay a mean of 38 Euros per year. In addition, we have introduced an innovative procedure to detect protest responses related to the payment vehicle in a contingent valuation. Heckman's sample-selection procedure is used to analyse the WTP function.     

Municipal support of wireless access network rollout: A game theoretic approach

Next generation access networks are expected to bring ubiquitous broadband access and have attracted interest of municipal governments. This paper investigates the support by municipal authorities for the rollout of such a city-wide wireless broadband access network. Different business cases for 3G and WiFi operators are developed and it is indicated how to model the specificities for commercial versus public players. Furthermore, a game theoretic approach is used to investigate the investment options of the municipal player. It is shown that a partnership between a commercial and public player is the most likely investment strategy. However, bringing more players into the competitive environment reduces the intention of the commercial partner to engage in the public–private partnership (PPP).