Productivity and Employment in the Information Economy: What Kaldor’s and Verdoorn’s Growth Laws Can Teach the US

During the last decade of the 20th century the US economy experienced the longest economic boom since World War II. Information and communication technologies (ICT) are seen as one of the main reasons for this development and it is still an open question how ICT will affect growth and employment in the future. To evaluate this process Kaldors growth laws, especially Verdoorns law are reconsidered. It will be discussed which changes in the Verdoorn-Coefficient (VC) and the employment threshold (ET) can be expected due to ICT. Induced technical progress and increasing returns to scale could make future economic growth to be less labor-intensive. A simple OLS estimation using data for the US non-farm sector indicates that the VC increased in the second half of the 1990s. Thus, more output growth is required to keep employment constant.The author gratefully acknowledges the most valuable comments from two anonymous referees and the participants of the Annual Meeting of the Austrian Economic Association (NOeG) at the Vienna University of Economics (WU), May 21–22, 2004. Any remaining errors are my own.     

Taxation, Reranking and Equivalence Scales

It is conjectured that if the government has a distributional objective and formulates tax policy with a view to equitable treatment of households, then adopting the scale that is implicit in transfer policy should identify only reranking that has no equity foundation. This motivates the question: can the reranking‐minimizing scales be identified as those implicit in the transfer system? The analysis presented in this study suggests that the equivalence scale which minimizes reranking, while not necessarily equal to the tax implicit equivalence scale, is nevertheless in its vicinity.     

The Power of Networks: Integration and Financial Cooperative Performance

Abstract ** :  The purpose of this paper is to perform a cross‐country survey of the level of integration of systems of financial cooperatives (FC) and its effect on measures of performance. We develop a classification scheme based on a theoretical framework that builds on published work using transaction cost economics (TCE) to explain integration of large numbers of financial cooperatives into networks. We identify three critical levels of increasing integration we call respectively atomized systems, consensual networks and strategic networks. Further, we test some of the propositions that result from the theoretical framework on an international sample of financial cooperative systems. Based on this analysis we can conclude that: (i) Integration is less (more) important in developing (more developed) countries and for very small (large) financial cooperatives as a determinant of efficiency. However, integration tends to reduce volatility of efficiency and performance regardless of development. (ii) Integration appears to help control measure of managers' expense preferences that tend to affect performance of FC. (iii) Despite high costs of running hub‐like organizations in highly integrated system, these systems economize in bounded rationality and operate at lower costs than less integrated systems.     

A working paper from April 1985: Which demand elasticities do we know and which do we need to know for policy analysis?

This paper presents some results on the theory and estimation of intertemporal allocation mechanisms. The results rely heavily on the distinction between anticipated changes and unanticipated changes.     

Nonlinear incentive provision in Walrasian markets: a Cournot convergence approach

The paper studies insurance with moral hazard in a system of contingent-claims markets. Insurance buyers are modelled as Cournot monopolists or oligopolists. The other agents condition their expectations on market prices, as in models of rational-expectations equilibrium with asymmetric information. Thereby they correctly anticipate accident probabilities corresponding to effort incentives induced by insurance buyers’ net trades. When there are many agents to share the insurance buyers’ risks, Cournot equilibrium outcomes are close to being second-best. In contrast, if insurance buyers are price takers, equilibria fail to exist or are bounded away from being second-best.     

后马歇尔时代聚集经济理论之分析

聚集经济理论主要起源于英国学者阿弗里德.马歇尔(Alfred Marshall)。后马歇尔时代,西方不同的学术流派把聚集经济引申出不同分类,这些分类从不同的角度对聚集经济进行探析。马歇尔理论遗留的很多问题依然亟待解决。     

Immigrants’ net direct fiscal contribution: How does it change over their lifetime?

Life-cycle direct public fiscal contributions and transfers are studied using longitudinal income tax data from 1982 to 2016 and administrative files for immigrants landed in Canada from 1980 to 2016. Relative to a comparison group comprising the Canadian-born and immigrants landed before 1980, immigrants since 1980 have a lower average net direct fiscal contribution (NDFC) during their working years due to their lower taxes and social security contributions but a higher average NDFC after 65 years of age because of reduced public pension eligibility and entitlement. Immigrants who landed at younger than 19 years old have much higher direct fiscal contributions than other age-at-arrival groups and reach their peak of contributions around 10 years earlier in life than other age-at-arrival groups. Immigrants whose age at arrival is above 65 have a less negative average NDFC than other age-at-arrival groups over the above-65 life cycle. These life-cycle age𠄁at-arrival trajectories are stable for immigrants in different landing cohorts. We apply the life-cycle estimates to project the present discounted value of lifetime NDFCs for immigrants who landed in 2016. For each landing age group, refugees and family class immigrants have negative or zero average present values of life-cycle NDFCs, much below that of economic immigrants.     

Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration

Theory asserts that individuals’ migration decisions depend more on their expectations about future income levels than on their current income levels. We find that the implementation of market-oriented reforms in post-communist countries, by forming positive economic prospects, has reduced emigration as predicted by theory. Our estimates show that migration flows are highly responsive to reforms supporting private enterprises and financial services, which provide individuals with strong signals about their future prospects. We show that reforms that improve the management of infrastructure services have no link with migration patterns, which may be an important lesson for government policy.