Rising household debt: Its causes and macroeconomic implications--a long-period analysis

The article analyses the rise in household indebtedness fromthe point of view of its causes and long-run macroeconomic implications.The analysis is focussed on the US case. Differently from life-cycleinterpretations of the phenomenon, and from interpretationsin terms of erratic deviations of current income flows fromtheir long-run trend, the rising household debt is viewed asthe outcome of persistent changes in income distribution andgrowing income inequalities. Through household debt, low wagesappear to have been brought to coexist with relatively highlevels of aggregate demand, thus providing the solution to thecontradiction between the necessity of high and rising consumptionlevels, for the growth of the system's actual output, and aframework of antagonistic conditions of distribution which keepswithin limits the real income of the vast majority of society.The question of the long-run sustainability of this substitutionof loans for wages is finally discussed.     

Regional consumption of antibiotics: A demand system approach

Through this paper, we have attempted to model the demand for different classes of antibiotics used for respiratory infections in outpatient care in Switzerland using a spatial version of the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. This model takes spatial dependency into account by means of spatial lags of antibiotic budget shares. We control for the health status of patients and the potential harmful effects of antibiotic use in terms of bacterial resistance. Elasticities to socioeconomic determinants of consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities between different groups of antibiotic have also been computed in this paper. Significant cross-price elasticities are found between newer or more expensive generations and older or less expensive generations of antibiotics.     

PORTFOLIO SELECTION WITH MONOTONE MEAN-VARIANCE PREFERENCES

We propose a portfolio selection model based on a class of monotone preferences that coincide with mean-variance preferences on their domain of monotonicity, but differ where mean-variance preferences fail to be monotone and are therefore not economically meaningful. The functional associated with this new class of preferences is the best approximation of the mean-variance functional among those which are monotonic. We solve the portfolio selection problem and we derive a monotone version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has two main features: (i) it is, unlike the standard CAPM model, arbitrage free, (ii) it has empirically testable CAPM-like relations. The monotone CAPM has thus a sounder theoretical foundation than the standard CAPM and a comparable empirical tractability.     

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHILD CARE DEMAND IN SWITZERLAND

ABSTRACT ** :  This paper analyzes the demand of Swiss families for child care facilities. A choice experiment is used to study the effects of the facilities' characteristics as well as socio-economic factors on the selected child care mode. The experimental data are analyzed using a discrete choice model with multinomial logit specification. The results suggest that the demand for extra-familial day care could be considerably higher than that observed from the actual choices constrained by insufficient provision of affordable day care. The price, access, and the quality of service as well as parents' income and education have important impacts on the choice of the mode of care.     

Exclusive Dealing: Investment Promotion May Facilitate Inefficient Foreclosure

This paper studies a model whereby exclusive dealing (ED) can both promote investment and foreclose a more efficient supplier. Since ED promotes the incumbent seller's investment, the seller and the buyer realize a greater surplus from bilateral trade under exclusivity. Hence, the parties involved may sign an ED contract that excludes a more efficient entrant in circumstances where ED would not arise absent investment. The paper therefore invites a more cautious attitude towards accepting possible investment promotion arguments as a defense for ED.     

Acquisition of Information and Share Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Cognitive Dissonance

Abstract. This paper deals with the determinants of agents' acquisition of information. Our econometric evidence shows that the general index of Italian share‐prices and the series of Italy's financial newspaper sales are cointegrated, and the former series Granger‐causes the latter, thereby giving support to the cognitive dissonance hypothesis: (non‐professional) agents tend to buy the newspaper when share prices are high and not to buy it when share prices are low. Instead, we do not find support for the hypothesis that the agents acquire information in order to trade in the stock market: we find no relationship between quantities exchanged in the market and newspaper sales, nor between stock market volatility and newspaper sales.     

Time and Risk Diversification in Real Estate Investments: Assessing the Ex Post Economic Value

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits nonzero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long-horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This article evaluates, ex post, the out-of-sample gains from diversification when equity real estate investment trusts (REITs) belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification into REITs increases both the Sharpe ratio and the certainty equivalent of wealth for all investment horizons and for both classical and Bayesian (who account for parameter uncertainty) investors. The increases in Sharpe ratios are often statistically significant. However, the out-of-sample average Sharpe ratio and realized expected utility of long-horizon portfolios are frequently lower than that of a one-period portfolio, which casts doubt on the value of time diversification.     

RISK MEASURES: RATIONALITY AND DIVERSIFICATION

When there is uncertainty about interest rates (typically due to either illiquidity or defaultability of zero coupon bonds) the cash‐additivity assumption on risk measures becomes problematic. When this assumption is weakened, to cash‐subadditivity for example, the equivalence between convexity and the diversification principle no longer holds. In fact, this principle only implies (and it is implied by) quasiconvexity. For this reason, in this paper quasiconvex risk measures are studied. We provide a dual characterization of quasiconvex cash‐subadditive risk measures and we establish necessary and sufficient conditions for their law invariance. As a byproduct, we obtain an alternative characterization of the actuarial mean value premium principle.     

Selective Schools

This paper studies how schooling admission tests affect economic performance in an economy where individuals are endowed with both academic and non‐academic abilities and both abilities matter for labour productivity. We develop a simple model with schools run by the goverment, where individuals signal their abilities by taking an admission test and sort into low quality and high quality schools. When abilities are poorly correlated in the population, as documented in the literature, a standard test based only on academic abilities can be less efficient than a balanced test, which considers both ability types. We show that a sequential testing strategy, with schools testing academic abilities and firms testing non‐academic abilities on the sub‐sample of graduates of high quality schools, does not necessarily replicate the outcome of a balanced test.     

Efficiency and regulation in the case of the Swiss Private Railways

This paper discusses the efficiency of the Swiss Private Railways in an economic and regulatory context. For this purpose, scale efficiency and overall cost efficiency for 48 Swiss private railway companies are investigated. A translog cost function for a four-year panel is estimated and measures of economies of scale and density are derived. A compound indicator for network size and structure is introduced. The estimation results allow for a discussion of efficiency in terms of optimal scale and density. Overall cost efficiency is estimated by means of a frontier cost function. The findings on efficiency are discussed in the Swiss political and regulatory context. More specifically, a regression on the influence of ownership and subsidy structure on the efficiency is performed. The findings are that most of the Swiss private railway companies operate at an inappropriately low scale and density. While the companies are rather homogenous in terms of overall cost efficiency, evidence is found for a significant influence of regulation in terms of the subsidy structure.