Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?

This paper uses the forecast from a random walk model of inflation as a benchmark to test and compare the forecast performance of several alternatives of future inflation, including the Greenbook forecast by the Fed staff, the Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecast, CPI inflation minus food and energy, CPI weighted median inflation, and CPI trimmed mean inflation. The Greenbook forecast was found in previous literature to be a better forecast than other private sector forecasts. Our results indicate that both the Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters median forecasts of inflation and core inflation measures may contain better information than forecasts from a random walk model. The Greenbook's superiority appears to have declined against other forecasts and core inflation measures.     

The Revenue Gains from Multi‐Tier Ticket Pricing: Evidence from Pop Music Concerts

We provide empirical estimates of the revenue benefits of multi‐tier pricing at a major US pop music venue. Our unique sample includes data on the number of tickets sold at every price. Mean revenue gain from multi‐tier pricing is estimated to be about $20,000 per show, a 4.2% increase over uniform pricing, although the gains were as high as 21.2% for one performer. We also provide evidence that customer segmentation by income is a likely motive of multi‐tier pricing and, for the first time, that the standard assumption of zero marginal cost of additional venue attendees is valid. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new propensity to trust scale and its relationship with individual well‐being: implications for HRM policies and practices

In the on‐going debate around HRM and performance, there is an argument that greater attention should be paid to understanding the role that employee attitudes, attributes and behaviours play. Emerging research suggests that trust and well‐being are two aspects that could contribute to this debate. Research has shown some relationships between trust and well‐being. However, this has tended to omit consideration of an individual's propensity to trust due to lack of suitable measures. This paper explores the relationships between propensity to trust and well‐being by means of a study of 458 managers using a newly developed instrument to assess propensity and established well‐being scales. Analyses of the results demonstrate a reliable measure of propensity and a range of positive relationships. The potential implications for HR policies and practices of a measure of propensity are discussed. In particular, application in the areas of selection and development are highlighted.     

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?*

We develop a system that provides model‐based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out‐of‐sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast outperforms Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to outperform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.     

New initiative,old problem: classroom assistants and the under‐valuation of women's work

Centred on classroom assistants in Scotland, this article examines the process by which an occupation dominated by female workers becomes under‐valued. The qualitative data reveals the cognitive errors made by the key actors—government, employers and unions in this process.     

Using a mathematical programming model to examine the marginal price of capacitated resources

Accurate information on dual prices of capacitated resources is of interest in a number of applications, such as cost allocation and pricing. To gain insight we focus on the dual prices of capacity and demand in a single-stage single-product production-inventory system, and discuss their interpretation. In particular, we examine the behavior of two different production planning models: a conventional linear programming model and a nonlinear model that captures queuing behavior at resources in an aggregate manner using nonlinear clearing functions. The classical linear programming formulation consistently underestimates the dual price of capacity due to its failure to capture the effects of queuing. The clearing function formulation, in contrast, produces positive dual prices even when utilization is below one and exhibits more realistic behavior, such as holding finished inventory at utilization levels below one.     

A Note on Fixed Costs and the Profitability of Depository Intermediaries

In this paper we consider some factors which are of potential importance in the debate concerning the sources of performance for intermediaries. Using data from depository institutions (banks and savings and loans), we find that the distributional intensity (provided by standardized number of offices in a market) is consistently important in explaining cross- sectional profitability. This result implies that the number of offices in a market is at least as important as more traditional measures of efficiency and concentration in determining returns in this sector of the financial services industry. Indeed, when pooled data are used, there is a strong quadratic relationship between return on assets and the number of offices in a market. We show that this relationship can be viewed as coming from spatially differentiated markets as opposed to collusion or efficiency per se. Finally, we provide evidence that results concerning the rule of efficiency versus market concentration are themselves sensitive to the implicit assumption that there are no close substitutes for the services provided by a sub-set of the industry. In particular, results from ‘pooled’ bank and thrift data often provide conclusions which are different from those which include only banks. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Rent Controls in Ontario: Roofs or Ceilings?

This paper describes the rent control program in Ontario and discusses the consequences of these controls. It indicates that rent controls caused both a small nominal decline and a large real decline in the per unit value of rental apartments, substantially reduced new rental housing starts, generated a rental housing shortage, created a dual market with significant rent differences between the controlled and uncontrolled (new construction) sectors, and imposed large costs on government in the form of foregone tax revenues and increased rental housing subsidies. The paper also indicates some of the political responses to the developing economic effects, such as the imposition of additional land use controls and increased government spending programs to stimulate new rental construction.     

A study of the performance of Developmental Studies students in the principles of economics

This study assesses the performance of Developmental Studies students in the principles of economics. The null hypothesis is that once demographic and academic variables are taken into account, completion of a developmental studies course(s) contributes nothing to the probability of success in a principles of economics course. The study analyzes a sample of 1,053 principles of economics students during the 1989 academic year. A logit regression model is used to estimate the probability of successfully completing a course in the principles of economics. The study finds that the completion of the Developmental Study Skills course is an important determinant of the probability of success in the principles of economics courses.     

Selection institutions and war aims

We explore how the sizes of the winning coalition and selectorate influence the war aims of states. Leaders who answer to a small winning coalition are more likely to seek territorial gain as a way to increase state resources. Nonterritorial war aims produce a commitment problem in that after the war the defeated state may not comply with the victor's demands. States with large winning coalitions are more willing to continue the war to remove the enemy leader as a solution to this commitment problem. We test our hypotheses against the Militarized Interstate Dispute data set, and we find some support for our argument. Received: June 2004, Accepted: April 2005, Correspondence to: James D. Morrow