Forecasting the resurgence of the U.S. economy in 2010: An expert judgment approach

This paper describes a forecast, performed in December 2008, of the time of the recovery of the U.S. economy from the contraction that began in December 2007. As in two earlier papers, the forecast uses an expert judgment approach, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), within the framework of decision theory, as well as its generalization to dependence and feedback in the form of the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The findings of this paper are that the economy would begin its recovery in July-August, 2010. While forecasting is always hazardous, our 2001 paper successfully forecast the date the recovery began. Since 1920 the validating authority for the turnaround dates has traditionally been the widely recognized National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The Bureau usually releases an official statement with their finding many months after the event (and of course after the forecasts had been done). Our results on the month in which the recovery began in 2001 were confirmed by the NBER in July 2003. We will again await the NBER determination of the time of recovery from the current recession.     

Entrepreneurial decisions and legal issues in early venture stages: Advice that shouldn’t be ignored

Entrepreneurs make numerous business decisions each day, many of which have significant legal implications. Due to a lack of time and knowledge, however, these entrepreneurs too often make quick decisions regarding important matters—both current and future—based on a few primary factors, one of which is cost. Entrepreneurs appear to make decisions based on concrete, but frequently inappropriate, factors such as comparison of bottom-line dollar value or relatively small fees; in this scenario, short-term decisions are made that do not take into account intricate legal and strategic implications which may arise down the road. As such, we would suggest a different approach whereby entrepreneurs take the time to learn about and understand the implications of these decisions on long-term sustainability, liability protection, and growth potential. Herein, we discuss how using cost to compare and make decisions has an impact on three issues with legal implications that occur early in the start-up process, and which pose major implications for the entrepreneur if he or she does not deal with them properly. Toward this end, we propose some solutions to help prevent this from happening.     

book reviews

THE CHANGING SYSTEM OF INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS IN GREAT BRITAIN University of Glasgow LABOUR RELATIONS—HERITAGE AND ADJUSTMENT Sir Otto Kahn-Freund, Q.C.* Lanchester Polytechnic MANPOWER PROBLEMS IN THE HOTEL & CATERING INDUSTRY Hotel and Catering Industry Training Board THE POSTAL BUSINESS 1969–79 University of Nottingham WORKING WOMEN AND THE LAW Legal Officer General and Municipal Workers' Union INDUSTRIAL LABOR IN THE USSR Univesity of Glasgow AFRICANISATION, NATIONALISATION AND INEQUALITY University of Edinburgh     

Consumer preference for product bundles: The role of reduced search costs

Most prior research on bundling from a consumer perspective has focused on how bundles are processed, particularly from a prospect theory or mental accounting perspective. In contrast, relatively little research has examined the factors that might drive consumer preference for bundles versus individual items. This article addresses one such factor: the potential to reduce search and assembly costs. Through exploratory interviews and two laboratory experiments, the authors show that preference for a bundle is greater when bundle choice will reduce search effort than when it will not, particularly among consumers who are less motivated to process information. Judy Harris (JLHarris@Towson.edu) is an assistant professor in the Department of Marketing and e-Business, College of Business and Economics, Towson University. She received her doctorate from the University of Houston. Her work has been published in theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, theJournal of Retailing, the Journal of Advertising Research, theJournal of Consumer Research, the Journal of Applied Social Psychology, Psychology & Marketing, and other publications. Edward A. Blair (blair@uh.edu) is a professor and chair of the Department of Marketing and Entrepreneurship, Bauer College of Business, University of Houston. He is the author of several books, along with numerous articles in such journals as theJournal of Marketing, the Journal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Consumer Research, Public Opinion Quarterly, and others. He has served on the editorial boards of theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theJournal of Business Research.     

Ownership and control in the modern corporation: Antitrust implications

As Adam Smith, in The Wealth of Nations, noted over 200 years ago, if a firm's manager is not also its owner, there is a possibility that the manager will not act strictly in the interests of the owners. Following the publication of Berle and Means' influential study, considerable professional attention has been directed toward Adam Smith's observation. What consensus has emerged on the so-called separation of ownership and control issue? What are the antitrust consequences of the separation of ownership and control? Answers to these questions are suggested. Finally, the significance of the recent theoretical contributions of Alchian and Demsetz and Fama are reviewed and policy implications are discussed.     

From London to Los Angeles: a comparison of local labour market processes in the US and UK film industries

Addressing the issue of the embeddedness of labour markets, this paper compares the processes of finding employment in the film industry within two local labour markets. Drawing on studies of freelance film crews in London (UK) and Los Angeles (US), the paper concludes that the importance of social networks in job mobility in both contexts is a consequence of common production structures. However, common labour market practice varies in each geographical space as industry processes and structures are mediated by local institutional contexts.     

Resale Price Maintenance: An Economic Analysis of its Anticompetitive Potential

A decade ago, Leegin overruled Dr. Miles and subjected RPM to rule-of-reason treatment, under which the potential for anticompetitive conduct should be analyzed (rather than automatically assumed to be present). In its Leegin decision, the Supreme Court identified four ways in which RPM could be used to retard competition and consequently reduce consumer welfare: The first two involve the well-known concerns that RPM could be used to support either a manufacturer cartel or a dealer cartel; the last two involve unilateral conduct designed to foreclose entry or hinder smaller rivals. In this paper, we analyze these potentially harmful uses of RPM. We conclude that RPM does not pose a substantial anticompetitive threat.