The term structure of illiquidity premia

We investigate the term structure of bond market illiquidity premia and show that the term structure varies greatly over time. Short and long end are strictly separated suggesting that different economic factors drive different parts of the term structure. We propose a stylized theoretical model which implies that current trading needs of investors determine the short end. The long-term risk of being forced to liquidate bond positions determines the long end. Empirical evidence supports these predictions. While short-term liquidation risk captured by asset market volatilities drives the short end, the long end depends on the long-term economic outlook.     

How firms should hedge: An extension

This note studies a firm's optimal hedging strategy with tailor‐made exotic derivatives under both price risk and quantity risk. It extends the analysis of Brown G. W. and Toft K.‐B. (2002) by relaxing the assumption of a bivariate normal distribution. The optimal payoff function of a derivative contract is characterized in terms of the expectation and variance of the quantity, conditional on the price. This main result is illustrated by different examples, stressing the importance of the dependence structure between price risk and quantity risk for the choice of appropriate hedging instruments. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:834–845, 2010     

Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005

The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.     

Financial Liberalisation in Emerging Markets: How Does Bank Lending Change?

Financial liberalisation has often failed in the past due to underestimated problems of structural change. We analyse such changes in lending behaviour of Thai commercial banks during a liberalisation phase by way of unique micro data. Liberalisation has expected positive effects, such as lowering the interest rate spread and collateral requirements. Liberalisation causes structural change, such as a decline in collateral‐based and relationship banking. However, the liberal‐isation evidence is consistent with more risk taking, such as lending to more risky projects and less protection against default. The Thai experience suggests obvious policy lessons.     

Hedging Long-Term Forwards with Short-Term Futures: A Two-Regime Approach

In this paper we investigate Metallgesellschafts problem of hedging long-term forwards with short-term futures. Very different hedging strategies have been proposed in the literature. We attribute these differences to the underlying valuation approaches for oil futures and empirically compare five model-based hedging strategies. In particular, we consider a strategy which results from a two-regime pricing model. This continuous-time equilibrium model reflects the observation that prices of oil futures exhibit a very different behavior for low and high oil prices. Our empirical study shows that time diversification is the dominant effect for an effective hedging of long-term oil forwards with short-term futures. JEL classification G13, G30     

Wage,labour mobility and working time effects of profit sharing

This study presents empirical tests of a number of labour market hypotheses related to profit sharing using individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. It examines questions of differing wage, mobility (inter-and intra-firm) and working time responses under profit sharing as compared to conventional compensation arrangements.

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Zusammenfassung Auf Basis der Daten des deutschen Sozio-ökonomischen Panels werden verschiedene Hypothesen über Wirkungen der Gewinnbeteiligung auf dem Arbeitsmarkt getestet. Im einzelnen geht es um Fragen der Lohndifferenzierung, der inner- und zwischenbetrieblichen Mobilität sowie der Arbeitszeit. Es wird untersucht, ob und in welchem Umfang Effekte von der Gewinnbeteiligung ausgehen.

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We thank anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Do fundamental indexes produce higher risk-adjusted returns than market cap indexes? Evidence for European stock markets

A fundamental index weighs stocks proportionally to fundamentals such as book value, dividends, or sales. We investigate risk/return characteristics of fundamentally-weighted and market-cap-weighted indexes and employ various risk-adjustment approaches to ensure that return differences are not driven by risk. Based on stocks in the DJ Stoxx 600 index from July 1993 to April 2007, we show that fundamentally-weighted indexes achieve higher risk-adjusted returns than market-cap-weighted indexes. Our results provide empirical evidence for former theoretical findings that cap weighting may result in suboptimal risk/return characteristics.     

Long-run stock performance of German initial public offerings and seasoned equity issues

We estimate the long-run stock performance after initial public offerings (IPOs) in the German capital market with a larger sample than prior studies and alternative benchmarks (the equally and the value-weighted market portfolio, size portfolios and matching stocks). In addition we present the first results on the long-run performance after seasoned equity issues (SEOs) in Germany. We conclude that size portfolios and matching stocks are better benchmarks than market portfolios. Using buy‐and-hold abnormal returns, we estimate that German stocks involved in an IPO or in a SEO, on average, underperform a portfolio consisting of stocks with a similar market capitalization by 6% in three years. This is considerably less than the underperformance after IPOs and SEOs in the US market reported by Loughran and Ritter (1995) and the underperformance after IPOs in Germany reported by Ljungqvist (1997). We also show that the apparent underperformance of the 1988–1990 IPO cohort discussed by Ljungqvist (1997) disappears when the abnormal performance estimate is based on size instead of market portfolios.