Living Decently

One of the reasons why poverty lines became popular at the turn of the century was their promise of a scientific technique that would dispense with moralising about poverty. We argue that a price paid in this quest has been an impoverishment of the richness of the notion of 'a decent life', the moral concept underlying poverty. In addition, poverty lines have in practice been more to do with inequality at the bottom end of the income distribution than with poverty. The purpose of this article is to rehabilitate the measurement of poverty, and to make it credible. We set out our preferred method of poverty measurement, and illustrate it using data from the Australian Standard of Living Study. A feature of our approach is to distinguish clearly between issues of inequality and issues of poverty. Questions such as who is on the bottom of the income distribution, whether this has changed over time, and how income levels of the worst off compare with the mean, are questions of inequality. As such, the answers tell us nothing at all about how the worst off are actually living. To answer that question, we require direct measures of consumption and of social participation. These measures are not as simple, but they provide us with knowledge about poverty that poverty lines have promised, but have not delivered in a credible fashion.     

Determination of the labour/capital multiplier of a typical modern irrigation scheme in South Africa∗

Methodology developed by the Central Economic Advisory Service was applied to gain greater insight into job creation benefits of a typical modern irrigation project. The evaluation method uses all relevant information available from economic feasibility analysis and relies on broad sectoral multipliers only where no better data are at hand. It is shown that contrary to current opinions based on broad sectoral aggregates, irrigation schemes do not necessarily exhibit above‐average job‐creasion advantages.     

Earnings management surrounding CEO changes

This paper investigates the extent of earnings management in the periods surrounding CEO changes by Australian firms. Evidence is presented of incoming CEOs undertaking earnings management to reduce income in the year of CEO change, with abnormal and extraordinary items being the primary vehicle through which this is achieved. This result is consistent with the notion of new CEOs engaging in an 'earnings bath', and is strongest for non–routine CEO changes, where the opportunities to manage earnings are greatest. Extending prior work, classification of CEO changes as routine or non–routine is based on an expanded information search, and this provides insights into the CEO change process and identifies problems with simpler mechanistic classification methods. Additionally, detailed information of the operation of the modified Jones model for estimating expected accruals is presented, and this is consistent with such models having low explanatory power in identifying abnormal accruals.     

The need for skills in the factory of the future

The 'automated factory' as the culmination of ingenuity has fascinated engineers and social visionaries (albeit for different reasons) for a considerable period. This article discusses the skill requirements of advanced automated production.     

On pricing kernels and finite-state variable Heath Jarrow Morton models

Once a pricing kernel is established, bond prices and all other interest rate claims can be computed. Alternatively, the pricing kernel can be deduced from observed prices of bonds and selected interest rate claims. Examples of the former approach include the celebrated Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b) model and the more recent model of Constantinides (1992). Examples of the latter include the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) model and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm (1992) (hereafter HJM). In general, these latter models are not Markov. Fortunately, when suitable restrictions are imposed on the class of volatility structures of forward rates, then finite-state variable HJM models do emerge. This article provides a linkage between the finite-state variable HJM models, which use observables to induce a pricing kernel, and the alternative approach, which proceeds directly to price after a complete specification of a pricing kernel. Given such linkages, we are able to explicitly reveal the relationship between state-variable models, such as Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross, and the finite-state variable HJM models. In particular, our analysis identifies the unique map between the set of investor forecasts about future levels of the drift of the pricing kernel and the manner by which these forecasts are revised, to the shape of the term structure and its volatility. For an economy with square root innovations, the exact mapping is made transparent.