The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model

Abstract

Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. Recent work on the latter has focused on modeling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modeling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. This methodology has become widely used, and various extensions and modifications have been proposed to obtain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of mortality rates. In order to improve the measurement of uncertainty in survival probability estimates, in particular for older ages, the paper proposes an extension based on simulation procedures and on the bootstrap methodology. It aims to obtain more reliable and accurate mortality projections, based on the idea of obtaining an acceptable accuracy of the estimate by means of variance reducing techniques. In this way the forecasting procedure becomes more efficient. The longevity question constitutes a critical element in the solvency appraisal of pension annuities. The demographic models used for the cash flow distributions in a portfolio impact on the mathematical reserve and surplus calculations and affect the risk management choices for a pension plan. The paper extends the investigation of the impact of survival uncertainty for life annuity portfolios and for a guaranteed annuity option in the case where interest rates are stochastic. In a framework in which insurance companies need to use internal models for risk management purposes and for determining their solvency capital requirement, the authors consider the surplus value, calculated as the ratio between the market value of the projected assets to that of the liabilities, as a meaningful measure of the company’s financial position, expressing the degree to which the liabilities are covered by the assets.     

Empirical Research in Continuous Disclosure

Empirical analysis has much to offer the world of continuous disclosure, and with the emergence of larger datasets on which to perform such analyses empirical studies have begun to bear some interesting fruit. This commentary discusses recent work and areas for future development in this space.     

我国PET软饮料包装产品市场分析

近年来,由于PET包装产品所具有的广泛用途和节约能源、利于环保的特性,在发达国家被越来越广泛地使用。随着包装产业的不断发展和新兴企业的不断崛起,同行业竞争日益激烈,企业赢利空间缩小,经营效益不容乐观。本文在深入调查的基础上,对国内外行业环境进行了剖析,指出PET包装产品的行业经济特点,并分析了市场状况,包括市场的需求特性、购买者决策特征和本行业的工业购买者特征等。在此基础上,根据波特的竞争理论分析了行业的五种竞争力,希望对行业内的中国企业做出一定的借鉴和参考。     

基于美国COSO框架下的企业税务风险管理

税务风险作为企业管理不可或缺的一项内容,是内部控制框架中的关键环节。文章正是基于COSO报告中的企业风险管理的框架体系,从税务风险管理现状分析入手,从内、外部因素的角度剖析了税务风险形成的动因,最后根据COSO内控五要素,构建起我国的企业税务风险管理框架体系。     

铁路货物保价与保险运输问题研究

铁路货物保价运输与保险运输是两个易被混淆的概念。通过对铁路保价运输和保险运输制度的对比,得到两者之间存在着的一些相同点,但在目的、免责事由、赔偿责任期间、最终承担者、涉及范围等更多的方面存在着不同点。如果承运人同时选择保价运输和保险运输,那么其中的冲突和矛盾更是不可避免,还需要国家通过进一步完善立法来加以解决。     

Use of Public Perceptions of Groundwater Quality Benefits in Developing Livestock Management Options

In this study, a dichotomous choice model is used to determine the compensating welfare measure for water quality improvements stemming from livestock waste management in the Abbotsford region of southwestern British Columbia. The benefits of improving water quality are compared with the net costs of composting manure on a large scale, the option for handling livestock wastes preferred by the provincial government. The results indicate that the costs of composting manure exceed the revenue from selling manure (compost) plus the off-site damages avoided.     

The Regression Analysis of Tax Competition among Local Governments

Although the local government in China is still a lack of an independent tax right,the political decentralization makes local interests increasingly prominent,which contributes to the interests pattern of tax competition among local governments in our country.The implementation of the tax-sharing system may promote the local governments to expand virtual tax competition.This paper attempts to explore the nature and extent of the tax competition among local governments in China,using measurement regression with Chinese provincial panel data from the year 2005-2010 based on the spatial econometric model,and make some empirical analysis.The main findings in research are as follows:Different provinces of fiscal revenue show indistinctive spatial characters,while various provinces of VAT,business tax,personal income tax,business income tax show significantly strategy complementary characteristics over the same period of time.We conduct some in-depth discussion and analysis of these findings combining with the actual situation in China.     

钢筋混凝土支架的二级优化设计

结合一实际工程，对变高度钢筋混凝土三角支架进行二级优化设计，即，第一级先对支架支点高度进行优化，第二级再对支架截面尺寸进行优化。计算结果表明，经济效益显著。     

对会计中国特色的重新认识

会计是否有中国特色 ?对于这一重大会计问题 ,作者从会计中国特色的基本含义 ,会计与中国特色的伦理道德 ,会计与中国特色文化 ,会计非正式制度安排的中国特色 ,中国特色会计现代化的哲学思考 ,较为全面地分析了会计中国特色这一理论问题 ,并作出了充分肯定的回答。